Editor's Note: The below contains spoilers for Season 2 Episode 4 of House of the Dragon.

House of the Dragon just had its biggest dragon fight, and the end result has completely shifted the tone of the war. We watched as three dragons took to the sky and scratched and clawed each other, each willing to fight to the death. But while the "dance" of the dragons ended with Aegon II (Tom Glynn-Carney) burned and his dragon, Sunfyre, injured, the Battle at Rook's Rest spelled the end for one specific character from the Blacks: Rhaenys Targaryen (Eve Best). As Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) literally rose up as the victor, some viewers might note that although Rhaenys did ultimately die with her dragon Meleys, she had multiple chances to escape back to Dragonstone. So, why then would Rhaenys continue to go back to attack Vhagar despite being given the chance to escape? It didn't look like Aemond cared if she was getting away at all. So why didn't Rhaenys save herself and live to fight another day?

There Has Never Been a Better Chance To Kill Vhagar

The fact is that Vhagar is a huge asset for the Greens. In fact, as far as firepower, Vhagar might be the only thing preventing the Blacks from simply flying over Criston Cole's (Fabien Frankel) army and roasting them alive, as we have yet to see Daeron's dragon Tessarion (or Daeron for that matter) and Aegon has been repeatedly discouraged from getting on his dragon due to the risk to his life. Vhagar not only protects King's Landing, but Aemond is clearly unafraid of using her in battle. As the largest dragon in the world, the Black should take every chance they have at killing Vhagar. It's why Daemon's (Matt Smith) plan to attack Vhagar with Rhaenys in the first episode of the season isn't technically an awful one.

As Rhaenys states before she leaves for Rook's Rest to Rhaenyra (Emma D'Arcy) and her council, Meleys is their largest dragon and, crucially, one with battle experience. While the Blacks have more dragons, nearly all of them are young and inexperienced. The ones that have experience do not have riders and therefore are not really assets for them at this time. When Rhaenys and Meleys meets Aegon and Sunfyre on the battlefield, she clearly has the advantage. Meleys knows how to attack with her claws, and almost instantly Sunfyre's wing is damaged, and he's bleeding from his stomach. If Aegon was the Greens' only dragonrider at the battle, this would have been an easy win for the Blacks.

But when Vhagar arrives, the dynamic of the battle changes. Aemond hits both Rhaenys and Aegon with a spout of dragonfire and while Rhaenys manages to bank Meleys away, Aegon and Sunfyre get the full blast of Vhagar's flames and goes plummeting to the ground. At this point, Aemond does not chase Rhaenys, she can go back to Dragonstone. But what would that do? Rook's Rest would be taken, and the Blacks would lose their access to the mainland. If she turns back and fights Vhagar, she might die in the process, but she could also take out the dragon as well. So, she repeatedly goes back on the attack, even knocking Vhagar out of the sky at one point. Despite Meleys being smaller than Vhagar, she puts up a good fight. This is why Rhaenys turns back; there has literally never been a better chance to kill Vhagar despite the fact that it's not a fair match. She seems to know that, no matter if they win or lose this battle, she will die in the process.

Losing Rhaenys and Meleys Will Severely Weaken the Blacks

Although the Blacks now hold Harrenhal, keeping Harrenhal is more of a problem. Daemon must deal with the complicated politics of the Riverlords while managing his own traumatizing nightmares of a young Rhaenyra (Milly Alcock) and a witch (Gayle Rankin) trying to drug him. He can not leave the castle, or else he risks it getting taken by the Greens. Harrenhal is an immensely strategic location. It's the largest castle in Westeros, which means it can host a large army. It's also in a central location, making it a good point to rally. But the problem is that Daemon is one of the only people who has experience riding his dragon into war. In Season 1 Episode 3, we saw Daemon and Laenor (Theo Nate) fight in the Stepstones on Dragonback, and we also saw that they encountered forces that were able to stave off attacks from dragons. With this knowledge, Daemon has the most battle experience with his dragon Caraxes defensively and offensively.

But now that Rhaenys is dead and Meleys is off the board, that leaves Rhaenyra in a very vulnerable position. The only remaining dragons are Rhaenyra's Syrax, Jace's (Harry Collett) dragon Vermax, and Baela's (Bethany Antonia) dragon Moondancer. The latter two are young dragons, and Rhaenyra can't go into battle since that will make her too easy of a target. As Jace points out, if she dies, the cause is lost. The reality is that without Meleys, now the Gullet and the blockade will have to be manned by someone else, and that leaves only two dragons. This will lead the Blacks to change up their strategy, as book readers know, but at the moment, it explains exactly why Rhaenys continued to go back to attack Vhagar. If she can take out Vhagar, or at least maim her enough to take her out of the equation, the war is essentially won.

For the Greens, losing Aegon, or at least having him out of commission, is not a huge loss. As Alicent (Olivia Cooke) coldly points out in this episode, the best thing Aegon can do is nothing at all. The council is better at managing the war than him, and Aemond and Cole's strategy for taking the Crownlands seems to be working. But for the Blacks, with Rhaenyra's access to the land now cut off, she is still without an army, and now she is down one of her most valuable chess pieces. The Blacks will have to scramble if they want to have a chance at winning. There have been assassination attempts, dragon attacks, and now all-out war. Anything is possible, and it will only get bloodier. Rhaenys gave it her best shot, but in the end, she only achieved a dragonrider's death — which is a sad but poignant parallel to her own daughter's wishes. "The Dance of Dragons" marks the first major death in this war, and it's one that gives one side a very clear advantage moving forward.

House of the Dragon Season 2 premieres new episodes on Sunday at 9PM EST in the U.S.