There is no sign that the current persistent nay permanent fuel scarcity in Nigeria will abate anytime soon. This is because of a ‘price war’ between the oil marketers and the federal government which has led to deliberate hoarding of fuel and artificial scarcity.

The marketers desperately want to increase the ex-pump price of fuel from the current rate to N1,200 official before the end of this year 2024 but the government is resisting because of the obvious effect of any oil price increase on prices of goods and services and inflation. The marketers claim that the landing cost of petrol is N1,009 per litre so they want to increase the ex-pump price of petrol to N1,200 per litre but the government is currently paying N339 per litre as subsidy to stop the march of the marketers towards increasing the price of fuel. The marketers reckon that the current N339 per litre fuel subsidy paid to them is not enough and doesn’t come as at when due and sometimes they have to bribe government officials to get what belongs to them (subsidy, bridging etc) so the marketers resorted to the age-long tradition of deliberate hoarding of the product to force a price increase to N1,200 per litre.
The game plan of the marketers has always been the same. Create artificial scarcity, squeeze Nigerians, black market thrives so that people will succumb and say ‘WE SURRENDER, PLEASE LET’S HAVE FUEL EVEN AT N1,000 PER LITRE. AT LEAST IT IS BETTER THAN BUYING AT BLACK MARKET.

Currently, black market sells for N1,200 per litre anyway, coupled with a very weak government that cannot enforce the law and prosecute any oil marketer for hoarding and the possibilities of a contaminated fuel means the oil marketers will have their way anyday, anytime.

In fact the situation will get worse and climax in December 2024 as Nigerians should expect petrol to cost at least N1,100 per litre before the end of 2024.

The following are some of the reasons why Nigerians will continue to experience fuel scarcity:

1. The oil marketers want to increase the ex-pump price of petrol to N1,200 per litre because as the marketers alleged, the current landing cost of petrol is N1,009 per litre due to the high exchange rate US dollar the Naira so they close their depots and some of their filling stations which by the way are very wet with fuel. If the federal government agrees on N1,100 per litre, there will be fuel all over Nigeria within 24 hours.

2. ⁠There is so much hoarding of petrol to create artificial scarcity so that a few Nigerians must become billionaires overnight through oil racketeering, fuel subsidy and bridging payments of unverified claims.

3. ⁠The independent oil marketers (IPMAN), major oil marketers (MOMAN) and depot owners association (DAPPMA) have enough fuel in their depots and tanks but chose to create an artificial scarcity to force the federal government to further deregulate the downstream sector of the industry to allow them increase the price of petrol to N1,200 per litre. The marketers claim they import the product at N1,009 per litre and want to sell for N1,200.

4. ⁠Nigerians should expect the price of PMS to hit at least N1,100 per litre this year 2024 officially or the oil marketers may use Jerry cans instead of the pump…and you know what that means. Black market rate.

5. The hoarding of fuel is further proven by the fact that if anyone wants to buy 1 million litres of petrol today and is ready to pay as much as N1,000 per litre, the marketers will supply pronto.

6. Some of the oil marketers are owned by top government officials. These government officials cannot enforce the laws against their own businesses.
This is Nigeria.
Does anybody care?

7. Some independent and major marketers, depot owners are senators and members, House of Representative, ministers etc so they cannot enforce any laws against hoarding of petroleum products to cripple their own businesses.

8. The federal government is very weak to stop hoarding of petroleum products. The industry regulator agency, the Nigerian midstream, downstream petroleum regulatory authority (NMDPRA), has not been able to check deliberate hoarding of petroleum products by marketers to create artificial scarcity. The NMDPRA claim they don’t want to rock the boat and get the marketers angry thus giving the marketers the free hand to do what suits them.

9. The independent petroleum marketers association of Nigeria (IPMAN) is claiming to be owed N200 billion in bridging claims by the federal government so they shut down the filling stations and created artificial fuel scarcity to force the federal government through the NMDPRA to cough out the unverified bridging claims of N200 billion. Most of these claims are bogus and unverified and arranged with the knowledge of officials of the NMDPRA to take a cut.

10. The federal government is not interested in getting the government-owned refineries back to life to stop fuel scarcity. The NNPC and other top government officials continue to queue up to churn out LIES to Nigerians about a so-called ‘take-off’ date for a purported ‘beginning of operations of the Port Harcourt’ refinery. The last purported date for a presumptive ‘take off’ of the Port Harcourt refinery was December 2023. More than 5 months on, not a single barrel of crude oil has been refined by the Port Harcourt refinery despite the fact that the NNPC spent $25 billion or N11.35 Trillion to fix the refineries in the last 10 years. Yet none of the refineries is working. The NNPC even sponsored a trending video online in December 2024 for a so-seen ‘flame of life’ from the crude distillation unit (CDU) to hoodwink Nigerians into believing that the Port Harcourt refinery has started operations.

11. In April 2021, the NNPC signed a contract with Italian Marie Technimont worth $1.5 billion to fix the Port Harcourt refinery. 3 years on, the refinery is yet to refine even ONE barrel of crude oil.

12. Nigerians should not expect any changes from Dangote when his refinery starts refining crude oil. This is because Dangote will sell at market rate. Dangote hasn’t signed any agreement with the government to sell fuel at any rates whatsoever.

13. Dangote will import his crude. Most of his refined fuel products will be exported and sold outside Nigeria so it will not be like when the top businessman Dangote starts refining, Nigeria will be flooded with petrol, No. not even close. Nigerians should not expect much and standby to avoid a heartbreak from Dangote.

14. Nigerians should not expect much from Dangote refinery despite the fact that the federal government funded about 70% of the cost of Dangote refinery. Former CBN governor Emefiele can testify to how many billions of US Dollars the federal government sunk into the Dangote refinery.

15. The federal government during Buhari’s era focussed it’s attention on Dangote refinery and pumped billions of U.S. Dollars into it courtesy former CBN governor Emefiele while its own children (refineries) are comatose.
Typical Nigeria.

16. It has always been a practice in Nigeria for government officials to connive with third party businessmen to kill public corporations for a share in the company. For example, NNSL, Nigeria Airways, NEPA, MTel, NITEL Refineries.

17. These corrupt government officials in 16 above obviously have shares in Dangote refinery for the roles they played in funding the refinery through tax payer’s funds.

18. If the NNPC really wants to make fuel available in Nigeria for the time being, it should go into direct JV with reputable refineries around the world instead of sub-contracting fuel importation to oil marketers who are ready to squeeze the blood of Nigerians to make money at all costs.