The 2023-24 WNBA season is in full swing, and one of the games on tap from Saturday's slate features the Minnesota Lynx (15-6 SU, 14-7 ATS) hosting the Washington Mystics (5-16 SU, 13-7-1 ATS) in a battle between two teams that have been struggling lately.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.

Lynx vs. Mystics – Season Stats & Betting Trends

Minnesota is the favorite vs. Washington

The Lynx raced out to a 13-3 start and defeated the New York Liberty in this year's Commissioner's Cup championship game. Since that solid start, though, the Lynx have hit a rough patch, dropping three of their last four games. This includes back-to-back losses to the Liberty (76-67) and the Connecticut Sun (78-73).

In their recent loss to the Sun, four of the team's starting five reached double figures. Alanna Smith paced the offense with 14 points, four rebounds, and two assists. She shot an efficient 5-of-6 from the field and 4-of-5 from beyond the arc.

Kayla McBride added 13 points, eight rebounds, and four assists, while Courtney Williams finished with 12 points and six assists. Napheesa Collier exited the game in the third quarter with a foot injury. She finished with nine points, snapping her double-figure scoring streak at 29 games.

After being outscored 28-18 in the third quarter, Minnesota trailed 64-58 going into the final frame. Minnesota opened the fourth quarter with a 6-0 burst, knotting the game at 64 apiece. Unfortunately, DeWanna Bonner responded with a 3-pointer and a three-point play, giving the Sun a six-point lead they would not relinquish. It was the Lynx's third loss in their last four games.

On the other side of this matchup, the Mystics showed some signs of life following a 0-12 start. They went on a stretch in which they won four of their next five games. However, things returned to normal, as the team suffered consecutive losses against the Sun (94-91) and the Las Vegas Aces (88-77). Washington briefly got back into the win column with an 82-80 win over the Los Angeles Sparks before losing to the Aces again (98-77) on Thursday night.

In that loss to Las Vegas, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough scored a team-high 19 points off the bench on 7-of-13 from the floor and 3-of-5 from 3-point range. Ariel Atkins added 18 points and three rebounds, while Emily Engstler contributed 10 points and a team-high eight rebounds off the bench.

Washington was competitive early on, trailing by just three points (23-20) after the first frame. But the Aces took control of the game with a 60-35 advantage over the next two quarters, effectively putting the game out of reach. Like the Lynx, the Mystics have also dropped three of their last four contests. With that in mind, something has to give when these teams clash on Saturday night.

Now that we have set the stage for this East vs. West matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Lynx vs. Mystics Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks and analysis

Spread

The Lynx opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has moved to eight points for the home team at the time of this writing (via OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lynx are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games.
• Minnesota is 4-3 in games in which it has been favored by 7.5 points or more.
• The Mystics have covered the spread five times in their last six outings.
• In their last six matchups against Minnesota, Washington is 4-2 against the spread.
• Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (-8)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 156.5 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER 15 times in the Lynx's last 23 "home" games.
• In the Mystics' last eight games, the OVER total is 6-2.
• The OVER total has prevailed 10 times in Washington's last 15 "road" games.
• Minnesota and Washington are averaging a combined 161.7 points per contest this season, which is 5.2 points more than the over/under total.
• Opponents of these two teams have averaged 158.1 points per game, which is 1.6 points higher than this matchup's total.
• Prediction: OVER 156.5 points

Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Fresh off her 18-point effort against the Aces, Ariel Atkins is the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 14.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 14.5 points.

Do Atkins' numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• During the season, Atkins is averaging 14.5 points per contest.
• In the previous two meetings against the Lynx last season, Atkins averaged 15.5 points and 3.5 rebounds on 65 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent from long range.
• Atkins has played against Western Conference teams nine times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 12.0 points per outing.
• In 11 road contests, the Washington Mystics guard is averaging 13.4 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, Atkins has averaged 15.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Ariel Atkins OVER 14.5 points

Given Napheesa Collier's doubtful status for this game, Kayla McBride becomes the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points.

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, McBride has averaged 15.7 points per game.
• In the previous three encounters between these two teams last season, McBride averaged 16.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per contest on slash lines of .472/.300/.889.
• McBride has suited up against Eastern Conference teams seven times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 16.0 points per game.
• In 11 home contests, the Minnesota Lynx guard is averaging 14.8 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, McBride has averaged 14.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Kayla McBride OVER 16.5 points

Lynx vs. Mystics Final Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 156.5 points (Bleacher Nation)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Ariel Atkins OVER 14.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Kayla McBride OVER 16.5 points