Netherlands vs Turkey predictions for this Euro 2024 quarter-final. Netherlands and Turkey face off at Berlin’s Olympiastadion for a Euro 2024 semi-final spot on Saturday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Quarter-Finals – Jul 6, 2024 at 8pm UK at Olympiastadion Berlin

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Netherlands vs Turkey Predictions

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Will the Netherlands’ Attacking Prowess Overcome Turkey’s Resilience in Berlin?

As the Netherlands prepare to face Turkey in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals at Berlin’s Olympiastadion, both teams are acutely aware of the significance of this match. A win would not only secure a coveted spot in the semi-finals but also bring them a step closer to the illustrious Henri Delaunay trophy. Having advanced from the previous round under contrasting circumstances, both nations will enter this match with optimism and determination.

Match Preview

The Netherlands have not had a straightforward path to the quarter-finals, yet they have managed to progress to this crucial stage. After finishing third in Group D, they encountered Romania in the Round of 16, where they delivered a commanding 3-0 victory. Despite their shaky group stage performance, the Dutch demonstrated their potential by dominating Romania, with Cody Gakpo’s early goal setting the tone and Donyell Malen’s late brace sealing the win.

Manager Ronald Koeman, who was part of the Netherlands’ European Championship-winning team in 1988, is eager to replicate that success as a coach. With talents like Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo in fine form, the Dutch are beginning to dream big. Gakpo, in particular, has been instrumental, earning multiple ‘Man of the Match’ accolades and vying for the Golden Boot with his consistent performances.

On the other hand, Turkey’s journey has been equally dramatic. They set a new record for the fastest-ever goal in a European Championship knockout stage during their thrilling 3-2 win against Austria. Despite missing key players due to suspensions, Turkey managed to prevail thanks to a sensational last-minute save by goalkeeper Mert Gunok. The Crescent-Stars, under the guidance of Italian coach Vincenzo Montella, have showcased their resilience and attacking prowess throughout the tournament.

Team Analysis

The Netherlands are expected to field a similar lineup to the one that triumphed over Romania. Bart Verbruggen will likely continue in goal, with Virgil van Dijk marshalling the defence. The potential absence of Steven Bergwijn, who was substituted due to injury in the last match, might open the door for Jeremie Frimpong or Donyell Malen to start on the right flank alongside Denzel Dumfries. Up front, the duo of Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay will pose a significant threat to the Turkish defence.

For Turkey, the return of captain Hakan Calhanoglu from suspension is a significant boost. However, they will miss midfielders Orkun Kokcu and Ismail Yuksek, who are suspended. Merih Demiral’s availability remains uncertain due to potential disciplinary action, but Samet Akaydin is ready to step in if needed. Young talents like Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler will be crucial as Turkey aim to overcome the Dutch and advance to the semi-finals.

Expected Lineups

Netherlands Possible Starting Lineup: Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake; Schouten, Reijnders; Malen, Simons, Gakpo; Depay

Turkey Possible Starting Lineup: Gunok; Muldur, Akaydın, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Ayhan, Yokuslu; Yildiz, Calhanoglu, Yilmaz; Guler

Match Dynamics

The Netherlands have displayed an attacking flair, with an average of 15.8 shots per game and a possession rate of 55%. Their ability to create big chances, as evidenced by their 50 touches inside the Romanian penalty area, will be pivotal. Defensively, they have maintained stability, keeping two clean sheets and conceding only four goals in the tournament.

Turkey, meanwhile, have shown a balanced approach with a possession rate of 52% and an average of 14.3 shots per game. Their resilience in defence is reflected in their 18.5 tackles and 7.8 interceptions per game. However, their propensity to concede, as seen in their six goals against, could be a vulnerability against a potent Dutch attack.

Key Players

Cody Gakpo: With three goals in four matches, Gakpo has been the standout performer for the Netherlands. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a constant threat.

Hakan Calhanoglu: Returning from suspension, Calhanoglu’s creativity and experience will be crucial for Turkey. His vision and set-piece prowess can unlock defences and create opportunities for his teammates.

Mert Gunok: The Turkish goalkeeper’s heroics against Austria underline his importance. Gunok’s shot-stopping ability could be decisive in keeping the Dutch attack at bay.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

The Netherlands have exhibited a dynamic and aggressive offensive approach under Ronald Koeman. Their strategy involves leveraging the pace and creativity of players like Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay. Gakpo, in particular, has been a standout performer, consistently finding the back of the net and creating numerous scoring opportunities. The Dutch attack is characterised by quick transitions, utilising the width provided by Denzel Dumfries and the overlapping runs from full-backs like Nathan Aké. This has allowed them to maintain an average of 15.8 shots per game, with a significant portion coming from inside the box.

Defensively, the Netherlands have been relatively stable, although not impervious. Virgil van Dijk anchors the defence with his commanding presence and organisational skills. However, their tendency to push forward has occasionally left them vulnerable to counter-attacks, a weakness that Turkey could exploit. The Dutch defence averages 13 tackles and 18 clearances per game, indicating a proactive approach in regaining possession and preventing opposition chances.

Turkey, on the other hand, have adopted a more balanced approach under Vincenzo Montella. Their offensive strategy has been heavily reliant on the creativity of Arda Guler and the clinical finishing of Merih Demiral, who surprisingly doubled his international goal tally in their last match. Turkey’s attack is built around quick, incisive passes aimed at exploiting gaps in the opposition defence. They average 14.3 shots per game, with a notable success in converting opportunities from both inside and outside the box.

Defensively, Turkey have shown resilience but also susceptibility, especially under pressure. Their defensive strategy involves a high pressing game, led by Mert Muldur and Ferdi Kadioglu, to disrupt the opponent’s build-up play. However, this aggressive pressing has sometimes left their backline exposed, as seen in their conceding of six goals in four matches. Turkey’s defensive statistics include 18.5 tackles and 26.3 clearances per game, highlighting their active defence but also a need for improvement in maintaining structure.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Cody Gakpo has been the linchpin of the Dutch attack, with his sharp movements and precise finishing earning him three goals in four matches. His ability to create and convert chances has been crucial for the Netherlands, making him a key player to watch. Memphis Depay’s role as a secondary striker provides additional firepower, while Xavi Simons’ playmaking abilities add depth to their attacking options.

For Turkey, Arda Guler has been the standout performer, showcasing his talent in creating goal-scoring opportunities and linking up play. Merih Demiral’s unexpected scoring spree has added a new dimension to Turkey’s offensive threat. Mert Gunok’s exceptional goalkeeping, particularly his last-gasp save against Austria, has been vital in keeping Turkey in the competition.

Managerial Impact on Style of Play

Ronald Koeman’s influence on the Dutch team is evident in their offensive fluidity and tactical versatility. Koeman’s experience as a former player and his understanding of Dutch football culture have enabled him to instil a playing style that combines traditional Dutch attacking flair with modern tactical nuances. His decision to field young talents like Xavi Simons has paid dividends, providing the team with creative impetus and energy.

Vincenzo Montella has brought a disciplined yet dynamic approach to Turkey. His emphasis on high pressing and quick transitions has made Turkey a formidable opponent. However, Montella’s tactics have sometimes backfired, leaving his defence exposed and vulnerable. His ability to adapt and manage the defensive frailties will be crucial in this high-stakes match.

Expected Goals Analysis

The Netherlands have shown a strong xG (expected goals) performance throughout the tournament, underpinned by their offensive strategies and high shot volume. Their ability to generate quality chances has translated into actual goals, reflecting a high conversion rate. In contrast, Turkey’s xG has been somewhat inconsistent, with their defensive lapses often undermining their offensive efforts. The xG data suggests that while both teams are capable of scoring, the Netherlands have a more reliable and consistent attacking output.

Tactical and Performance Comparison

In terms of tactics, the Netherlands favour a high-possession, high-pressing game that relies on quick, wide attacks and fluid movement. Their defensive organisation, led by Van Dijk, provides a solid backbone, although their aggressive approach can lead to occasional lapses. Turkey’s tactics involve a balanced approach with high pressing and quick transitions. However, their defensive strategy lacks the same level of organisation and discipline, making them more prone to conceding goals under pressure.

Player performances have also been contrasting. The Dutch players, particularly Gakpo and Simons, have been consistently high-performing, while Turkey have relied on standout moments from Guler and Demiral. The overall success of the Netherlands in terms of team cohesion and tactical execution has been superior, as reflected in their match results and statistical dominance.

Suggestions for Improvement

For the Netherlands, maintaining defensive discipline while continuing their aggressive offensive play is key. Ensuring that their full-backs do not leave too much space behind when pushing forward will be crucial. Additionally, Koeman should consider bolstering the midfield to provide better cover for the defence.

Turkey need to address their defensive vulnerabilities urgently. Strengthening their defensive organisation and ensuring better coordination during high-press scenarios will be vital. Montella might also consider a more conservative approach when facing strong offensive teams like the Netherlands to avoid being caught out on the counter.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Netherlands’ strengths lie in their attacking depth, tactical versatility, and the individual brilliance of players like Gakpo and Simons. However, their weakness is the occasional defensive lapse caused by their aggressive forward play. Koeman’s management has largely been positive, but he must ensure defensive stability to complement their attacking prowess.

Turkey’s strengths include their creative midfield, led by Guler, and their ability to score from various positions. Their weaknesses are their defensive inconsistencies and susceptibility to high-press scenarios. Montella’s aggressive tactics have sometimes left the team exposed, raising questions about his strategic acumen in managing defensive transitions effectively.

In conclusion, while both teams have shown remarkable qualities, the Netherlands appear to have the edge in terms of tactical execution and individual performances. However, Turkey’s unpredictability and fighting spirit could still pose significant challenges. The key to victory will lie in which manager can better adapt their strategies to mitigate weaknesses and exploit the opponent’s vulnerabilities.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Netherlands to Win and Both Teams to Score

The Netherlands’ offensive capability has been impressive throughout the tournament. They have managed to score in each of their last eight matches in 2024, showing their consistent attacking threat. Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay have been particularly prolific, with Gakpo already netting three times in the tournament. On the other hand, Turkey, despite their defensive lapses, have shown they can find the back of the net, scoring seven goals in four matches.

The Dutch defence, while strong, has conceded in their last few games, indicating a susceptibility that Turkey can exploit. With both teams’ attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities, it’s likely we will see goals from both sides, but the Netherlands’ superior quality should see them edge the match.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Netherlands 3-1 Turkey

Considering the Dutch’s attacking prowess and Turkey’s defensive frailties, a 3-1 scoreline seems a plausible outcome. The Netherlands have averaged nearly two goals per game in the tournament and possess a fluid attacking unit spearheaded by Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay. Turkey, while capable of scoring, have struggled defensively, conceding six goals in four matches.

Given these dynamics, the Netherlands are likely to score multiple goals, with Turkey potentially grabbing a consolation. The Dutch’s organised attacking play, coupled with Turkey’s inconsistent defence, supports a prediction of a 3-1 victory for the Netherlands.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Cody Gakpo to Score

Cody Gakpo has been in exceptional form during Euro 2024, scoring three goals in four matches. His ability to find space and his clinical finishing have made him a key player for the Dutch. Gakpo has demonstrated his knack for scoring in crucial moments, and his recent performances suggest he will continue this trend.

Turkey’s defence has been porous, and their tendency to concede chances could provide Gakpo with the opportunities he needs. Given his current form and Turkey’s defensive vulnerabilities, Gakpo is highly likely to add to his goal tally in this match.

4. Corner Prediction: Netherlands to Win More Corners

The Netherlands’ attacking style and higher average of corners per game (6.8) compared to Turkey (6.3) suggest they will win more corners. The Dutch play with width and utilise their full-backs effectively, often resulting in numerous corner kicks. In contrast, Turkey’s defensive approach and tendency to sit back may limit their corner count.

Additionally, the Netherlands’ tendency to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities will likely see them earn more corners throughout the match. Given these factors, it is expected that the Netherlands will have the upper hand in the corner count.

5. Shots on Target Prediction: Cody Gakpo

With seven shots on target from 11 attempts, Cody Gakpo has been one of the most accurate shooters in the tournament. His ability to consistently get into scoring positions and test the goalkeeper makes him a strong candidate to register shots on target in this game. Turkey’s defence has been susceptible to allowing shots, conceding an average of 4.8 shots on target per game.

Gakpo’s positioning and precision in front of goal suggest he will continue to be a major threat. Therefore, backing Gakpo to have at least one shot on target is a sound prediction given his current form and Turkey’s defensive record.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Mert Muldur to be Booked

Mert Muldur’s role in Turkey’s defence involves breaking up play and making crucial tackles, which often puts him in situations where he risks a booking. He has already been booked in the tournament, and with the high stakes of this match, his aggressive style of play is likely to lead to another yellow card.

The Dutch attackers, particularly Gakpo and Depay, are adept at drawing fouls due to their dribbling skills and pace. Muldur’s task of containing these players could result in him committing fouls that warrant a booking. Given his defensive duties and the nature of this high-pressure game, Muldur is a likely candidate for a yellow card.

7. Assist Prediction: Xavi Simons to Provide an Assist

Xavi Simons has been a creative force for the Netherlands, consistently providing key passes and setting up scoring opportunities. His vision and ability to unlock defences make him a prime candidate to provide an assist. Turkey’s defence, which has been prone to lapses, could struggle against Simons’ creativity.

With Gakpo and Depay making intelligent runs and positioning themselves well, Simons will have ample targets for his passes. His role as the primary playmaker for the Dutch ensures he will be at the heart of their attacking moves, making him a strong bet to register an assist in this match.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 4.5

This match is expected to be fiercely contested, given the high stakes of a quarter-final clash. Both teams have shown a tendency for physical play, with Turkey averaging 4.5 yellow cards per game and the Netherlands averaging 1 yellow card per game. The pressure and intensity of the knockout stage often lead to more fouls and bookings.

With several players walking the tightrope of suspension, tensions are likely to run high, potentially resulting in multiple cards being shown. Given the combative nature of both teams and the context of the match, predicting over 4.5 total cards is a reasonable expectation.

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