+What Pres. TINUBU Must Do

Everywhere you go right now across Nigeria, the story is the same. What everyone is talking about is the pervading hunger in the land. People talk about the high cost of foodstuff and staple food, from Rice, Meat, Tomatoes, and Pepper. It is a problem which some have termed Food Inflation. The Ileya festival has come and gone amidst worsening economic hardship and rising food inflation. This explains why some Moslems celebrated the festive season on a low key due to the increasing inflation that has caused a hike in the prices of food items and transportation fares.

The rising inflation that peaked at 33.95 per cent in the month of May caused prices to continually increase, daily. According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS, food inflation in Nigeria is above 40%, making it extra difficult for many to purchase food items.

A recent visit to markets revealed that the prices of items have continued to rise. Many consumers wonder why regardless of the intervention of the government through palliatives, the prices of food-stuff are still exorbitant for the common man.

During the Ileya period an average-sized ram was sold for about N300,000, with some going for as high as a negotiable price of N500, 000.

At the ram markets across Nigeria, the prices significantly increased owing to several factors, including inflation, insecurity, hike in transport fares, multiple taxation and feeding costs.

Ram dealers say the reasons behind the rise in price include, “the cost of feeding that has changed and transportation costs that have skyrocketed.

Food Sellers, lament low patronage by customers as a result of the hike in the price of commodities and the low purchasing power of citizens. “A lot of people are using the economic situation to dupe others and blame it on fuel subsidy removal.

There are examples of how some keep what they bought previously at a certain amount but refuse to sell those items. “They keep them to watch when the prices would go higher so they could double the price and make a higher gain.

Some Agriculture experts have proffered solutions to address the rising food inflation in the country.

The experts said this in separate interviews with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), while reacting to the May inflation figure. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 33.95 per cent in May 2024.

The NBS said this in its Consumer Price Index and Inflation Report for May. According to the report, the figure is 0.26 per cent points higher against the 33.69 per cent recorded in April 2024. It said on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate in May 2024 was 11.54 per cent higher than the rate recorded in May 2023 at 22.41 per cent.

The report said the food inflation rate in May 2024 increased to 40.66 per cent on a year-on-year basis, which was 15.84 per cent higher against 24.82 per cent recorded in May 2023. The NBS said in May 2024, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi with 46.32 per cent followed by Ekiti with 44.94 per cent and Adamawa with the lowest figure of 31.72 per cent.

Akin Alabi, an Agriculture analyst, said the subsidisation of farm inputs to local farmers would help in crashing the growing food inflation. “The rising food inflation in the latest NBS report indicates the need for an urgent action by the government.

“There is an urgent need for the government to begin to subsidise farm inputs for smallholder farmers.

“Subsiding farm inputs for local farmers will help reduce the growing food inflation in the country,” he said. Alabi also called for the set-up and implementation of a commodity board price. “The government needs a monitoring agency to monitor the prices of food as it leaves the farm to the market. “Sometimes, middlemen intentionally inflate the price of food items, and exploit the average buyer with exorbitant prices.

“For example, they should target major markets to monitor the prices, but again you cannot dictate food prices when you have not subsidised the inputs for farmers. “As a country, we must involve inter-state partnerships, each must recognise their crop strengths and exchange with lacking states,” Alabi said.

Mr Omotunde Banjoko, an Agriculture analyst and farmer, explained that the reasons for persistent food inflation were multifaceted. Banjoko noted that high cost of Transportation was a factor that contributed to the increase in food prices. “It costs a lot to transport agro-produce from where they are being cultivated to the markets.

All these logistics cost are also factored into the cost of cultivation as well as sales. “The cost of crop cultivation is going up on a weekly basis, hence food inflation is imminent. “For instance, in poultry and animal farming, the cost of feed is rather unpredictable and increasing on a daily basis.

As you read this, a lot of Poultry and Animal Farms have shut down in recent months due to these increasing costs.

Only those few who are able to meet up with the cost of cultivation are still in business. So, we have less food production,” Banjoko said.

He explained that the cost of food items would keep increasing with the closure of more farms. “The government should help subsidise the cost of food cultivation in the country and harmonisation of taxes for agro-produce.

“We heard the government is already on it, and if implemented it will be a right step in the right direction in ending food inflation. “Multiple taxation on farmers should be stopped to address this food inflation. Farmers sometimes incur more costs in multiple taxation,” he said.

Dr Ismail Olawale, a strategic Agriculture communication expert, said multiple taxation and Transportation of agro-produce must be addressed. “We do not need economic statistics to begin to explain the effects of this inflation, it is something everyone is witnessing.

“In the Northwest, farmers bring in so much produce and livestock to sell without greed. “However, the middlemen are the major problems, they buy the produce from the farmers in bulk and sell it at exploitative prices. “The middlemen do not only buy these items but they hoard them to create artificial scarcity that will cause increase in prices later. Some even sell these produce to neighbouring countries at the detriment of the locals. They sell to the highest bidders and allow the average Nigerian bear the brunt of the cost,” Olawale said.

He added that taxes collected from farmers at the border of every state during transportation of these produce were factored into the price of the produce.

“All these are underlying factors that influence the food inflation in the country. If the government can handle this illegal multiple taxations on agro-produce, the food inflation will gradually drop. “Food inflation is not caused by the stock exchange, we must get logistics right and address multiple taxation. “The transportation system is very crucial in determining the price of food items in Nigeria,” he said.

The President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Akinwumi Adesina, recently dismissed monetary tightening as capable of addressing the food price crisis, insisting that the only solution is scaling food production.

His position came on the heels of ultra-liquidity tightening measures taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to rein in runaway inflation and save the naira.

Recall that the interest-fixing arm of the CBN, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), at its recent meeting raised the already-high anchor rate by 400 basis points to a multi-decade high of 22.75 per cent. The apex bank has also been involved in an aggressive bond auction since the beginning of the year in a separate attempt to crawl back the money supply to ease the pressure on naira and prices.

Adesina said the efforts fall short of what the country must do to tame rising food prices and ease the misery the recent sharp fall in the value of naira and associated rising inflation has caused Nigerians.

“You don’t necessarily deal with food inflation with your standard microeconomic policy of target Money supply. You deal with it by producing food. I think it is important to deal with that,” Adesina noted, stressing that the major driver of the sharp price rise is cost-push factors, including security. Solutions to the challenges, he pointed out, are not monetary but structural.

But he assured that the bank is deeply involved in efforts to unlock the food production potential of the economy with funding programmes that are targeted at scaling up maize, soya beans, rice, cassava and wheat production.

The bank, he said, has approved $134 million for Nigeria to implement its emergency food production plan that would increase the supply of rice, maize and other food items by 4 million tonnes before the end of November.

For sustainability, Adesina advised the federal government to return to the electronic wallet system for distribution of fertilisers to smallholder farmers, innovation credited to him during his days as a Minister. The AfDB boss said Nigeria needed additional support in the form of concessional funding to tackle its economic challenges, including foreign exchange (FX) illiquidity.

Adesina is confident that Nigeria would overcome its economic challenge. However, he noted that every economic policy requires consistent review with a focus on improving the welfare of the masses.

Amidst rising food prices, President Bola Tinubu recently declared a “State of Emergency” on food insecurity. The move is part of an aggressive push to boost agricultural productivity and reduce the high prices of major staple foods in Nigeria.

The development is in line with the government’s short, medium and long-term strategies towards addressing the challenges of food affordability and accessibility in the country.

Explained one of his aides, “Mr President is not unmindful of the rising cost of food and how it affects the citizens. While availability is not a problem, affordability has been a major issue for many Nigerians in all parts of the country. This has led to a significant drop in demand thereby undermining the viability of the entire agriculture and food value chain,”

The specific steps to be taken by the government in the implementation of the state of emergency, include the immediate release of “fertilizers and grains to farmers and households” and protecting “farms and the farmers so that farmers can return to the farmlands without fear of attacks.”

The recent declaration of a “state of emergency” on food insecurity further confirmed experts’ concerns over the continuous decline in the purchasing power of Nigerians, amid poor income and climate change effects on food prices.

It also gives credence to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)/ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) earlier predictions that over 25 million Nigerians may face acute hunger at the peak of the lean season (the period between planting and harvesting – June-August) this year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 22.41 per cent in May from 22.22 per cent in the previous month. The food inflation rate also followed a similar trend, climbing to 24.82 per cent in May from 24.61 per cent in April.

The situation worsened further due to the aftermath of government policies such as the immediate removal of petrol subsidies leading to increased transportation costs, and the move to unify forex rates, among others. Since President Tinubu made his declaration, many Nigerians have raised concerns about the key indices driving food insecurity in Nigeria and the legal implications of Mr Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency on food security in the country.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), food security is attained when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

It is also explained as the state at which individuals have sufficient food to generate a calorie requirement of about 2,200–2,300 calories per day for adult females and 2,900–3,000 (about 8-10 kg of maize flour) calories per day for adult males, while children require a lower calorie level to maintain adequate health. The inability of a country to meet these criteria is often described as food insecurity.

The 11th edition of the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) published last year, showed that Nigeria ranked 107th (scoring 42.0 points) out of 113th countries globally in the food security index. This suggests that 12.9 per cent of the global population in extreme poverty was found in Nigeria as of 2022.

The report hinted that for the past three years, the trend in the overall food security environment has reversed.

Some of the major factors identified to be contributing to food insecurity in Nigeria include poverty, climate change, conflict and insecurity, increasing population, poor policy implementation, inefficient agricultural practices, post-harvest losses and low budgetary allocation to agriculture, among others.

In the past decade, the number of people living in extreme poverty in Nigeria has been increasing significantly. In effect, high levels of poverty make it difficult for people to access and afford nutritious food.

Between 2016 and 2022, the population of Nigerian men living in extreme poverty rose from 35.3 million in 2016 to 44.7 million last year just as that of women increased from 34.7 million in 2016 to 43.7 million last year, according to Statista.

Apart from Poverty, harsh weather patterns, droughts, extreme temperatures and floods also impact agricultural productivity and food production not only in Nigeria but also globally. Within the past decades, the impact of climate conditions is evident on crop production across the country’s different regions.

Data from Nigeria’s Meteorological Agency (NiMet) shows that the duration and intensity of rainfall have changed from normal across some states over the years, with devastating impacts on agricultural practices.

Last year, Nigeria witnessed one of its worst floods in the last decade as hundreds of villages and urban centres were submerged in waters, displacing over 2.4 million people.

According to official statistics, over 600 Nigerians died in the disaster, while expansive hectares of farmlands were also destroyed, with ripple effects on the country’s state of food availability, affordability and safety.

Conflicts and worsening insecurity in certain regions of the country, especially in the Northeast, Northwest and North-central have equally disrupted agricultural activities and displaced farmers. This has hindered food production and distribution, as many farmers are unable to visit their farmlands for fear of attacks by bandits or herdsmen in the last decade.

That is in addition to poor access roads, inefficient transportation systems, and lack of effective storage facilities, among others across farm settlements in Nigeria. This often leads to massive spoilage and wastage, amid poor investment in preservation infrastructure that could help improve the shelf lives of food items before getting to the consumers.

The high level of post-harvest losses being recorded worsens food availability due to Nigeria’s growing population, making it difficult to meet the increasing demand for food. Despite not producing enough to complement domestic consumption, a large chunk of food grown by farmers gets damaged due to supply chain disruption and logistic challenges.

In the last five decades, Nigeria has introduced a number of agricultural policies to boost production and improve food security but the impacts of these policies have been poor.

Despite these policy interventions, there have been no significant changes in the country’s state of food availability, affordability and accessibility, prompting Tinubu to declare a state of emergency in the sector.

Fisayo Kayode, a senior manager at Sahel Consulting Agriculture and Nutrition Limited.

Noted that over 40 per cent of food produced in Nigeria gets wasted due to poor logistics and infrastructure for proper aggregation, storage and processing, adding that distributing fertilisers and seeds as captured in Tinubu’s plans for farmers every planting season will not solve the problems.

“We need to think outside of the conventional ways that we have addressed food security in the past. We need to develop solutions that will create efficiency,” she said. She said there are many SMEs and large businesses trying hard to add value to the raw materials produced by local farmers but they are restricted because of several economic factors.

“They struggle to afford the required infrastructure to aggregate and process. There is also the case of inadequate policies that create an enabling environment for doing business,” she said.

She noted further that the continuous devaluation of the naira also makes it difficult to access funds to import the necessary machinery. “If we want to address food security, we need to tackle these limitations head-on and support the local food producers through catalytic initiatives,” she noted.