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Can Gen Zs deliver elusive reforms?

Business Daily 3 days ago

The rise of zoom generation and the street protests we have been witnessing have left me with optimism in the country’s economic future.

We are being reminded that corruption and tribalism are not in the DNA of every citizen of this country.

Another poignant lesson from the riots and rise of Gen Z is that this society is slowly going through fundamental changes that herald a time when the citizens will be freed from blind allegiance to corrupt ethnic oligarchs and from the grip of a corrupt elite that has been running our affairs since independence.

I prefer economic stability to the uncertainties of protest-led reform. I believe that capitalism and economic growth thrive more efficiently and sustainably in an environment where everything is stable and predictable.

But the Gen Z revolution will deliver to us what we were unable to achieve from the constitutional tinkering we did in 2010. Touted as a transformative Constitution, that document did not disrupt the political order in any significant way. Key institutions of economic governance like Parliament remained under capture by corrupt elites.

The significance of the #OccupyParliament episode on Tuesday was not just about attacking parliament to stop MPs from passing the Finance Bill 2024. The real significance was in the symbolism- the anger and rage directed at Parliament itself as an institution aptly captured by the comical scenes where protestors broke into the hallowed chambers of the House, occupied the Speaker’s chair in sarcastic and satirical displays of derision and disdain to an institution rendered dysfunctional through manipulation by corrupt oligarchs.

Why am I optimistic that the Gen Z spirit will eventually free the citizens from corruption and the tyranny by ethnic oligarchs?

The telecommunications revolution, the rise of online and of video platforms and other technical tools and virtual networks used by Gen Z to communicate and plan their activities.

Better road connections between parts of the country have reduced travel time. The expansion of the national electricity grid has made it possible for citizens to access it even in the remotest parts of the country. The increasing popularity of our lingua franca- and rapid urbanisation are also factors.

I ask: by dropping the Finance Bill 2024, did President William Ruto eat a humble pie or was it a tactical retreat?

Initially, all indications were that the president was going to react to the protests with the familiar formula- threats, repression or a vicious crackdown. That was the signal until Wednesday afternoon when he dramatically caved in to the demands of the street protesters and withdrew the bill.

When faced with widespread and persistent protests in Africa, actors are often forced into making hurried and confused choices and decisions. The president’s decision came less than a day after speaking tough in a national address televised live at 9PM on Tuesday.

With the president having sucked out the oxygen from the protests, it remains to be seen whether Gen Z has the capacity to continue to press and escalate their demands. If anything, what began as a protest against the Finance Bill has escalated into criticism of police brutality, deaths and abductions. The protests had acquired political overtones.

What are the implications in terms of both management of government finances and stability of the macro economy?

The existing Finance Act remains in place. No fiscal lacuna. Expenditure will have to be rationalised and reduced to the extent of the amount of revenues that were targeted by the new taxation measures in the 2024 Finance Bill. We should see the changes being reflected in this financial year’s first supplementary budget.

Without a doubt, the development is bound to complicate relations with the IMF. The dropping of the Finance Bill 2024 has also introduced uncertainties over the fiscal trajectory of the government.

On the political front, the strident outbursts by the Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, where he came out to berate the intelligence chief, Noordin Haji, for sleeping on the job and alleging that he failed to forewarn the president about the gravity of the protests, signalled intensity in factional intrigues within President Ruto’s administration.

In theory, newly elected governments-because of the support and legitimacy they enjoy in the honeymoon period- are supposed to be better placed at implementing adjustment programmes.

It is a sign of the times we live in that the administration has been forced by street protests to make the drastic decision of withdrawing the 2024 Finance Bill.

The writer is a former managing editor of The EastAfrican.

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