Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a two-day visit to Moscow on July 8 and 9 and this visit is being described as very important. This will be PM Modi’s first visit to Russia after Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022. The last time PM Modi visited Russia was in 2019 when he went to the city of Vladivostok for the India-Russia annual summit.

On his latest visit, Modi will be seen trying to walk a fine line between maintaining the long-term alliance with Moscow and further strengthening Western security ties. The Indian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, “The leaders of the two countries will review different dimensions of bilateral relations and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.”

In his third term, PM Modi has chosen India’s long-term, friend Russia for his first bilateral visit at a time when the US and European allies have failed to achieve any objective in pressuring Russia over the war with Ukraine.

Along with many other issues, India’s request to resume the supply of S-400 air defence missiles will also be discussed in the talks between the two leaders. It is expected that an agreement will be reached on a date for the supply of S-400 systems in the talks.

The Diplomat writes that traditionally, Modi has chosen one or more of India’s neighbours for his first visits abroad, emphasizing India’s neighbourhood as a foreign policy priority. So, the choice of Russia and Austria this time may seem odd, but a closer look could help discern the “method behind the madness.” Given the intense global flux, India’s stated aim has been multi-alignment, that is, joining hands with different partners at different points in time to maximize New Delhi’s advantage. A case in point: India is getting Russian oil at discounted prices despite Western objections in the midst of the Ukraine conflict.

The visit also marks New Delhi’s commitment to the Russia-India dialogue format, which has been postponed for three years barring a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan in 2022.

It may be noted that PM Modi gave the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan, which Putin also attended, a miss as India wanted to send a strong message over unresolved tensions over border issues with China. At the same time, India wishes to maintain strong ties with Moscow.

According to the South China Morning Post, India has become a major buyer of Russian oil since other countries placed embargoes on the commodity following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has also been a major supplier of arms and heavy military equipment to Delhi for several decades. However, India has in recent years increasingly shifted towards Western allies for military supplies and engaged them more deeply in strategic defence ties. At the same time, India has countered US and European nations’ efforts to cast Russia as a pariah state, for example, by abstaining from UN votes condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Therefore, PM Modi’s visit needs to be seen as a reflection of India’s current situation and strategic independence. Moreover, engaging Russia politically while trying to add more practical economic elements to the relationship is imperative, writes The Diplomat. Most of India’s military hardware is still of Soviet-Russian origin and needs spares. India has begun diversifying defence procurement but needs Russia to deliver critical spares and some pending batteries for the S-400 air defence systems. India is also looking for replacements for some Sukhoi fighter aircraft. Once a dependable defence partner, New Delhi has been worried about Russia sharing sensitive technology with China.

According to reports, defence, oil, and gas would be the main agenda in the talks. Additionally, talks are expected to be held on the Ukraine war, trade, resolving the issue of payments due to sanctions on Russia, the supply of defence hardware, investment in the proposed Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, and a major military logistics agreement. The issue of Indians fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war is also likely to be included in this conversation, as India has been demanding to stop such recruitments in the Russian army.

The Kremlin has already announced the visit as “a very important visit”. For PM Modi, it will be a test of his vision and multi-facetedness, opine some defence analysts. PM Modi’s Russia visit shows that India wants to maintain its foreign policy stance of maintaining cordial relations with as many countries as possible and also balance self-interest.