Juventude vs Gremio predictions for this Brazil Serie A clash. After two away defeats, Juventude return to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to face Gremio in gameweek 15 of Brasileiro on Sunday night. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Brasileiro | Jul 7, 2024 at 8pm UK at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

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Juventude vs Gremio Predictions

Can Juventude Continue Their Home Fortress Against Gremio’s Resurgence?

After two consecutive away losses, Juventude return to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to face Gremio in gameweek 15 of the Brasileiro on Sunday night. Juventude sit in 13th place with 16 points from 13 games, while Gremio languish in the relegation zone with 11 points, having played one game fewer.

Match Preview

Juventude enjoyed a strong start to the season, losing just one of their first seven matches. However, recent performances have seen them struggle, now hovering uncomfortably close to the relegation zone. Their latest outing ended in a 2-0 defeat to Bahia, with goals from Thaciano and Cauly ensuring Juventude’s second consecutive loss and their third in four league matches. Their away form has been particularly poor, with no wins in their last seven trips, earning only two points from draws against Criciuma and Fluminense.

At home, however, Juventude have been impressive. They remain unbeaten at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, with four wins and two draws. Their home form has been crucial in keeping them out of the relegation zone, but they face a tough challenge against Gremio, a team they have not beaten in their last six encounters, suffering four losses and two draws.

In contrast, Gremio had a disastrous start to the season, losing seven of their first nine matches. The team was significantly impacted by the floods that led to the temporary suspension of the league in June, and they have yet to return to Gremio Arena, which remains unplayable. Despite these challenges, Renato Gaucho’s side have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, avoiding defeat in their last three matches. Their latest game saw them draw 2-2 with Palmeiras, despite leading for over 70 minutes before conceding two late goals.

During this three-match unbeaten run, Gremio also secured their first point on the road this season. Given their historical advantage over Juventude, Gremio will be hopeful of continuing their upward trajectory with another positive result.

Team News and Expected Lineups

Juventude’s Predicted Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel
• Defenders: Lucas, Boza, Marcos, Rushel
• Midfielders: Caique, Jadson, Jean
• Forwards: Barbosa, Gilberto, Farias

Gremio’s Predicted Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Marchesin
• Defenders: Pedro, Ely, Kannemann, Reinaldo
• Midfielders: Carballo, Pepe, Edenilson
• Forwards: Gomes, Cristaldo, Pavon

Juventude welcomed back Ze Marcos and Gabriel in midweek, both slotting straight into the starting lineup. They remain without long-term absentee Romercio and injured players Edson Carioca and Marcelinho. Gremio are missing several key players, including Mathias Villasanti, who is on Copa America duty, and the injured duo Jhonata Robert and Diego Costa. Lucas Mila is also out with an ACL injury.

Key Areas and Player Battles

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Juventude’s Caique and Gremio’s Carballo playing pivotal roles. Caique’s ability to disrupt play and transition the ball quickly to the forwards will be key for Juventude. Carballo, on the other hand, will need to control the tempo and link up effectively with Gremio’s attacking trio.

In the attacking third, Juventude will rely on Lucas Barbosa, their top scorer, to breach Gremio’s defence. Barbosa’s movement and finishing have been instrumental for Juventude this season. Gremio’s defensive line, led by Kannemann and Ely, will need to be vigilant to prevent Barbosa from adding to his tally.

For Gremio, Cristaldo’s creativity and goal-scoring ability will be crucial. With three goals this season, Cristaldo’s form will be essential if Gremio are to penetrate a Juventude defence that has been solid at home.

Tactical Approaches and Expected Gameplay

Juventude are likely to adopt a proactive approach, leveraging their home advantage. They will aim to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities through quick, incisive passing and exploiting the flanks. Their solid home form suggests they will be confident and aggressive from the outset.

Gremio, on the other hand, might adopt a more conservative strategy. Given their struggles on the road, they could focus on maintaining a compact defensive shape and looking for opportunities to counter-attack. Gaucho will likely instruct his team to absorb pressure and exploit any gaps left by Juventude’s attacking forays.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Juventude’s Strengths:

• Strong home form, with no losses at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
• Defensive solidity at home, maintaining three clean sheets in their home matches.

Juventude’s Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent away performances, leading to a drop in confidence.
• Vulnerability in set-piece situations, as evidenced by recent games.

Gremio’s Strengths:

• Recent improvement in form, avoiding defeat in their last three matches.
• Resilience and ability to perform under pressure, shown by their draw against Palmeiras.

Gremio’s Weaknesses:

• Poor away record, with only one point earned on the road.
• Defensive frailties, particularly in the latter stages of matches.

Managerial Analysis and Critique

Roger Machado has managed to instil a sense of resilience in Juventude, particularly at home. However, his tactical approach needs more flexibility, especially in away games. The team’s lack of adaptability has cost them crucial points, and this rigidity might hinder their progress.

Renato Gaucho, despite Gremio’s struggles, has shown tactical acumen by steering the team through difficult times. However, his side’s defensive lapses, especially in the final minutes, indicate a need for better game management. Gaucho’s failure to secure victories from winning positions points to potential motivational issues within the squad.

Predictions

Best Bet: Juventude to Win

Juventude’s unbeaten home record and Gremio’s poor away form make a home win the most logical bet. Juventude have won four of their six home matches, while Gremio have struggled on their travels. The confidence Juventude gain from playing at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi should see them through to a victory.

Correct Score Prediction: Juventude 2-1 Gremio

Given Juventude’s solid home performances and Gremio’s recent improvement, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Juventude seems likely. Juventude have shown an ability to score consistently at home, while Gremio have found the net in their recent matches, suggesting they might score but fall short.

Goalscorer Prediction: Lucas Barbosa to Score

Lucas Barbosa, with four goals this season, has been a key player for Juventude. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a prime candidate to score against a Gremio defence that has shown vulnerabilities.

Corner Prediction: Juventude to Win the Most Corners

Juventude’s attacking play, especially at home, often leads to numerous corner opportunities. Given their tendency to dominate possession and apply sustained pressure, they are likely to win more corners than Gremio. The total number of corners in the match is expected to be around 9, considering both teams’ attacking styles.

Innovative Market Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals

Considering both teams’ recent performances and their defensive vulnerabilities, predicting over 2.5 goals in this match is a plausible bet. Juventude’s ability to score at home combined with Gremio’s need for points should result in an open, high-scoring game.

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