Climate Matters: More turbulence in a changing climate
New Studies Show Increased Turbulence in Clear Skies
If you have noticed more shaking and turbulence on your flights in recent years it might not be all your imagination. Recent studies suggest that planes are encountering more turbulence even in clear skies, which could be due to shifting weather patterns.
The Science Behind Turbulence
Turbulence is the irregular movement of air due to air currents and eddies and is one of the hardest weather patterns to predict. It occurs in the atmosphere on small and large scales from a wide variety of sources. Friction between the ground and the air constantly produces turbulence as winds wrap around structures and irregular terrain. Thunderstorms and fronts also cause turbulence far above the surface, which is why pilots try to avoid areas of active weather. But turbulence can also happen in clear air, which can be more problematic.
Clear Air Turbulence on the Rise
Clear air turbulence occurs in the upper troposphere and is not associated with thunderstorms. This type of turbulence can be found near mountains or in jet streams. Planes often fly with the jet streams to speed up travel, but this can expose them to more encounters with turbulence. Studies show that the most severe clear air turbulence has increased over 50% in the last 40 years in busy travel routes over North America and the Atlantic, possibly due to better technology and more erratic weather patterns in a changing climate.
Expert Insights
Nick Anderson, a former Royal Air Force pilot with almost 50 years of experience, states that turbulence is mostly a nuisance. He mentions that turbulence encounters are common on any flight, but serious incidents are rare. While flights may be bumpy during takeoff and landing, cruising altitudes pose a higher risk of injuries, especially for crew members. Anderson notes that severe turbulence incidents on his flights have been limited. "It's probably less than the number of fingers on my hand," he adds.
Safety Measures and Technology Advancements
Despite the rise in turbulence, advancements in technology and monitoring continue to enhance safety. No deaths have been reported this century for any American airline due to turbulence, with the most recent incident occurring in 1997 on a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu.
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