A vast amount of coverage presently discusses the condition of Joe Biden and his likely future as Democratic presidential candidate. I am going to say something about these matters that really has not got enough attention. As events turn out over the next month or two, I might be proved totally wrong about everything I say here. Fools rush in… and I am that fool.

I believe that issues of religion are going to be critical in the coming months, and specifically matters involving Judaism and anti-Semitism, Zionism and anti-Zionism. The state of Israel is going to be much closer to center stage in the 2024 US election than anyone presently realizes.

I have no idea whether Joe Biden can be induced to stand down as candidate, but for the sake of argument, let us assume that he will, and (surely!) sooner rather than later. That then leaves the decision about a successor candidate to the Convention that meets in Chicago in mid-August. Various candidates have been mentioned prominently, including Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom. Can we think this through?

We have already heard a little about the racial angle here. Donna Brazile and Hakeem Jeffries are both appalled that anyone might consider offering one of these White candidates when Kamala Harris is, for them, the obvious and irreplaceable heir apparent. How can the party avoid that very sensitive racial schism? Could the party really run a ticket with no Black candidate, in 2024? Seriously? Would that not be suicidal, when the contest can only be won by turning out core loyal voters in their largest possible numbers? Expect that to be an acrimonious debate.

That is bad enough, but what about Israel and Gaza? It was already a categorical certainty that pro-Palestinian protesters would be very active at that convention, and that quite likely, they would be countered by pro-Israel groups. We have long known that. But now, imagine the situation with new candidates being debated, and their attitudes on these matters being closely dissected. This would bring out a lot of deep-running grievances of age, class, and faith. For twenty years now, Democratic strategists have been stressing the impact of our very sizable recent immigration, with its undoubted effects on reshaping the electorate. That change is unquestionable, whatever we think the partisan consequences might be. But one immediate change is that the US can no longer assume the automatic reflex acceptance of Zionist ideology and support for Israel that has prevailed basically since the 1940s. Younger urban and minority party members are far more likely to be sympathetic to Palestinian causes, all the more so if we are still in August daily hearing of starvation and massacre in Gaza. Pro-Palestinian views have a solid institutional base on college campuses.

It will be fascinating to see how many Democrats choose to boycott Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming address to both Houses of Congress, scheduled for July 24. 75 at least, surely, and maybe more? A hundred? The Congressional Progressive Caucus currently musters 98 members. Anyway, that should give a good foretaste of the Convention to come, and its divisions.

Of course, conflicts around Israel very easily metastasize into poisonous charges of anti-Semitism, which would be music to the ears of the Trump campaign. “Just look at those Democrats! They hate Israel! And that means they all hate Jews!” That resonates with evangelical Christians, who tend to be very Zionist indeed, much more uncritically so than many Jews. Meanwhile, if you are daily denouncing younger urban activists for alleged anti-Semitism, that might not be an ideal way to get them to turn out to the polls.

In light of all that, now consider the names mentioned for the post-Biden Democratic ticket. Gretchen Whitmer is Governor of Michigan, the state with the best-organized Arab and Muslim political communities in the nation. Will they have nothing to say about her candidacy and campaign? Then think of Newsom’s California, and the ferocious battles on that state’s campuses.

But above all, look at Pennsylvania, which is (with Michigan) one of the absolutely key swing states in November. That fact has led many pundits to suggest a Pennsylvania name for either the presidential or, more likely, the vice-presidential role, presumably under Kamala Harris. The name usually mentioned is that state’s Governor, Josh Shapiro, who at first sight carries a lot less baggage than Whitmer or Newsom. But this is where current divisions and protests come into play. The fact that Shapiro is Jewish has and should have no relevance whatever here, but more to the point, he is also a very outspoken Zionist. Last year, he declared that “Pennsylvania stands with Israel!” to the surprise of Pennsylvania voters who had not been asked about the topic. Up till that point, many did not even know that the state had a foreign policy. He preaches Israel’s duty to defeat Hamas.

The state legislature has subsequently passed several aggressively pro-Israel measures, over the opposition of a solid core of progressive urban Democrats. Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman stands out among Senate Democrats by his ostentatious flag-waving support for Israel, and he actively goes out of his way to infuriate and provoke pro-Palestinian demonstrators. The Pennsylvania delegation is going to be an interesting bunch anyway – but with Shapiro in play as a possible VP pick?

Now go back to Chicago in August, when tensions between progressives and more conservative Democrats are going to be running very high, and then factor in some (possibly literal) floor fights between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel activists. And no, realistically, Fetterman probably cannot be told to calm down and shut up. The likelihood for bitter division, if not real violence, is extremely high, and that makes for sensational TV reporting. Does anyone remember Chicago in August 1968? The whole world was watching. And that then leads to a Harris/Shapiro ticket which meets pro-Palestinian demonstrations wherever it goes.

Of course, Democrats will soon get all that out of their system and join together in common cause for November. And yes, I am kidding. This might even be a great argument for keeping Biden on the ticket, and not opening several very large and toxic cans of worms. Alternative scenarios could be much, much worse.

By the way, I still think that Democrats will win in November, on the strength of women galvanized over the abortion issue, but who knows? I was just as positive that Trump would lose in 2016. Or maybe it will just be Michelle.

Let me end, without irony: Happy Independence Day!