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EU bombshell for Starmer - we're a long way from the cuddly EU of 2016

Express UK 2 days ago

Starmer's Labour will be in for a shock when they realise what kind of EU they'll need to cosy up to, says Jonathan Saxty.

What does the future hold for Keir Starmer and the EU? (Image: Getty)

Despite repeated assurances there remain lingering suspicions that Britain's inevitable Labour government will start cosying up to the EU after its certain victory this Thursday, dragging the UK back in through the backdoor and in defiance of the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is very much a Rejoiner outfit, without any significant Leave wing ready to capitalise on the benefits of leaving the EU's clutches.

But, if this is Labour's intent, the next government could be in for a rough ride. This is not the cute and cuddly progressive Eutopia of 2016 but instead a bloc tearing itself apart over immigration, centralisation and hard cash.

Labour will find itself dealing with an EU whose electorate increasingly plumped for Right-wing, Eurosceptic and nationalist parties in recent elections to the European Parliament.

Sir Keir, Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and co will also find themselves dealing with an EU whose rotating presidency is held by conservative nationalist Hungary, and EU bête noire, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

A tug-of-wear has already begun over the six-month presidency, with Hungary pledging to "Make Europe Great Again", but with plans also underway to undermine Budapest, including making it harder for Hungary to exercise its veto powers, boycotting meetings held in Hungary, and even potentially stripping Hungary of its voting rights altogether.

Into this toxic brew meanwhile, France might be about to elect a Eurosceptic and nationalist majority in the French parliament as National Rally (RN) topped the first round of polling in recent legislative elections.

Although RN leader Marine Le Pen has gone to great lengths to sanitise the brand - and the party has watered down some of its anti-EU policies - having a hard Right majority in the French parliament and an RN Prime Minister appointed to govern in cohabitation with President Emmanuel Macron would be nightmarish both for Brussels and for Labour.

Put simply, what kind of EU would Labour even be cosying up to, and that is before the likes of RN make known their displeasure at a Macron-esque Centre-left UK government attempting to get pally with the EU all over again.

For the likes of Orbán, an RN victory is a shot in the arm, and could seriously destabilise an EU already facing widespread opposition to its recent immigration pact, especially in more conservative Central and Eastern EU member states (including Poland, where Brussels's blue-eyed-boy Donald Tusk has already said thanks but no thanks to Brussels).

There are some caveats, of course. For starters, RN need to win round two of the election, and that could be a tall order given the other parties are likely to coordinate to prevent Le Pen's party winning a majority.

Then there is President Macron who can block key RN policies, not least on immigration and the EU. Then there is the fact France - like Britain - has already gone down an almost irreversible road of cultural liberalism and demographic change.

Finally, let's not underestimate an EU establishment with the financial controls to get its way. We saw this most recently in Poland where the EU clearly withheld cash in a (seemingly successful) effort to engineer a change of government in Warsaw.

Still, this is hardly the dream scenario for Labour: an EU which is shifting Rightwards is hardly what an incoming Left-wing British government needs if and when it tries to ingratiate itself once again with the Brussels establishment.

One more thing - assuming all this comes to pass - expect legal and illegal immigration to ramp up as the EU looks less inviting and Britain more so, especially as a rising population is perhaps the only thing Labour has to boost GDP on the cheap.

This ain't the cuddly EU of 2016. That may not stop Labour attempting to align with Brussels. Still, it makes the next government's task a heck of a lot more difficult than if the Eurosceptic nationalist Right were not winning hearts and minds.

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