The presidency of France’s Emmanuel Macron could shift dramatically depending on the outcome of a closely watched vote this Sunday, which has the potential of putting a far-right party much closer to power than has been the case in decades.

After the first round of voting in the recently called parliamentary elections, Macron’s centrist Renaissance party trailed both the far-right National Rally, also called the Rassemblement National or RN, and a left-wing bloc of parties.

If the vote Sunday results in a majority for the RN, Macron would be forced to share power with the far-right. Though RN opponents are moving strategically to prevent such an outcome, observers say it appears that Macron miscalculated the amount of political polarization in France. 

Here’s a brief look at how things got to this point.

Didn’t France just have an election?

Two years ago, Macron was re-elected to a second presidential term. Legislative elections were held later in 2022.

Macron called France’s snap parliamentary election in response to a strong showing of right-wing parties in European parliamentary elections last month, dealing his own centrists a crushing defeat. 

He cast “the rise of nationalists and demagogues” as a threat to France, as well as its position in Europe and the wider world.

How does voting work in France?

The parliamentary election sent French voters to the polls to choose their local representatives for France’s National Assembly.

Candidates had to win more than 50 per cent of votes to be declared an outright winner in the first round.

In cases where that didn’t happen, a second round of voting follows, involving the top-two finishers and anyone who got at least one-eighth of the ballots cast in the first round.

The RN and its allies led the first-round polls, followed by a group of left-wing parties. The Renaissance party and other centrist allies trailed both.

What is the RN?

The RN is a far-right anti-immigrant political party previously known as the National Front.

It changed its name in 2018 at the behest of former leader Marine Le Pen, who is also the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s co-founder.

Edward Berenson, a professor of history and French studies at New York University, said Marine Le Pen saw the limitations that the party faced in being closely linked to her father.

The elder Le Pen was a controversial political figure with multiple convictions for racism and antisemitism, but who nonetheless won nearly 17 per cent of the vote in the country’s 2002 presidential election when “basically the entire left voted for Jacques Chirac,” said Berenson.

He noted that based on those results, Marine Le Pen realized her father, who is now in mid-90s, would face a ceiling in terms of voter support. The party would go on to sever its ties with him in 2015 as part of an effort to soften the RN’s image.

Marine Le Pen first ran for president in 2012 when she came in third. She then roughly doubled her father’s results at the polls in the 2017 presidential contest, and garnered 41 per cent of the vote in 2022 — losing to Macron on both occasions. 

The RN is currently led by Jordan Bardella, who succeeded Le Pen as leader in November 2022. 

Le Pen remains a party member and retained her seat in the National Assembly during the first-round of voting last weekend. A second round won’t be necessary for her due to the strong support she received in her Pas-de-Calais district in northern France.

What are RN opponents doing?

The RN’s leading position in the first round of voting has prompted the party’s opponents to take action to prevent an overall win in the election.

During second-round voting, more than 200 candidates are dropping their names from consideration in districts where RN candidates could benefit from vote splitting.

Meanwhile, RN candidates are coming under greater scrutiny.

One RN candidate was dropped after a photo emerged of her wearing a Nazi officer’s cap. The party is also dealing with concerns about the suitability of other candidates who have made controversial statements or who haven’t been visible on the campaign trail.

What’s in store for Macron?

Macron’s presidential term is set to last until 2027 and he’s said he won’t step down before that.

However, if the RN prevails in the legislative elections, Macron could be forced into a power-sharing agreement with Bardella, 28. 

If that happens, Bardella would be the youngest-ever French prime minister — taking the record from current prime minister Gabriel Attal, who was just 34 when he started in that role earlier this year.

The possibility of power-sharing

In France, the prime minister is the head of the government, while the president is the head of state.

If the two figures are politically aligned, the French president can wield greater influence and power. But in a case where they are from opposing parties — a scenario known as “cohabitation” that has occurred in the past — power must be shared and that relationship can become fraught.

Three decades before Macron came to power, the late French president François Mitterrand faced just such a scenario. Following legislative elections in 1986, Mitterrand, a Socialist, appointed the conservative Chirac as prime minister.

Berenson says the constitution that’s been in place in France for nearly seven decades was aimed at stabilizing the national government and establishing a more powerful presidency. 

Yet it doesn’t appear able to prevent what Macron will likely face after Sunday’s second-round vote — either trying to arrange a coalition of parties to lead the government, or dealing with the RN.

“[Today’s France] looks like a country that does not any longer have two dominant parties, but a lot of smaller parties,” said Berenson.

He noted that Macron’s initial rise to power in the centre of France’s political spectrum came at the expense of moderate left- and right-leaning parties and contributed to political polarization.

Geopolitical commentator Samantha de Bendern went further, telling NBC News that France’s centre has “imploded.”

“Macron miscalculated,” she said. “He was hoping the moderate left and moderate right would both come to him. Instead, they’ve both joined the extremes.”

Stakes for allies, Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose own country has seen a rise in voter support for far-right parties, expressed hope Tuesday that French voters “will succeed in preventing a government led by a right-wing populist party from being formed.”

Ukraine and Russia will be watching the outcome closely, too.

Macron has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, whereas the RN’s Bardella is expected to pull back on providing Kyiv with long-range weapons and put stricter limits on French support.

Political analyst Douglas Webber told CBS News that an outcome putting Bardella in a lead role in government “would be a very good result for Vladimir Putin” and a bad one for Ukraine.

Yet NYU’s Berenson said French support for Ukraine could be lessened whether the RN heads the government or not, because other opposition parties also want to limit engagement in the war.

“No matter what the outcome is,” he said, “Macron is going to be much more constrained.”