Much warmer air is on its way from the south. A shift in the jetstream will take most of the rain to the northwest of the UK and allow more dry and sunny weather over Britain. The first half of July has been wet across the UK with some locations already seeing a month’s worth of rain by the 15th, so we could do with a change.
The next few days are looking drier and warmer for most of England and Wales thanks to strong July sunshine. Rain will arrive from the northwest for Northern Ireland and Scotland but there will be some fine, warm weather here in between. Friday looks hot for southern Britain as continental air pushes our way, perhaps up to 30C in southeast England. There should be a fine start on Saturday for much of Britain before heavy showery rain spreads in from Ireland. There will be the risk of thunderstorms over northern Britain later in the day as some develop in-situ for eastern England and the Midlands. The low pressure steering this band of hefty downpours will swing to the northwest of Scotland allowing the flow to change back to fresher Atlantic air.
This is a pulse of hotter weather rather than a sustained intense heatwave but Thursday night, Friday night and Saturday night will be very warm, particularly in London with hardly any wind. The overnight warmth could still be around for eastern and SE England on Sunday night, waiting for the fresher westerly breeze to kick in. These high overnight temperatures can cause stress as people find it harder to cool themselves (and their environment) down and have a good night’s sleep.
Thinking back to this time of year in 2022, this is not extreme heat. The top daytime temperatures this week will be high 20sC and maybe 30C whereas in July 2022 the UK saw its highest ever maximum of 40.3C. We haven't seen much summer heat yet this year, just that very warm spell for England and Wales late June. So this step up will be a change which some folk will welcome and others may need to adapt to.
This week
A risk of heavy and thundery showers remains for Tuesday evening. Wednesday will bring a lot of fine even sunny weather with just a scattering of showers around the middle of the day inland and light winds. Temperatures will widely be in the high teens and low 20sC with 25C likely in the southeast.
Showery rain will approach western Scotland and Northern Ireland on Wednesday night, so a more unsettled Thursday here. As that heat begins to reach up from the south we will see temperatures lifting in the clearer, sunny parts.
Northern Ireland will have a cooler, fresher night but Greater London could stay near to 18C. Then the heat takes hold on Friday. There will be plenty of sunshine as a fading weather front disappears and any early cloud thins and breaks. Again, hardly any breeze.
It will be a sultry night in London and will soon feel hot again on Saturday morning. There will be unsettled weather approaching from the west with heavy downpours and more cloud. There is the potential on Saturday for temperatures to rise again into the high twenties and even reach 30/31C in the southeast but it will depend on the progress of this frontal band .
If you have outdoor plans for Saturday just keep an eye on the forecast this week and bear in mind this uncertainty.
UK local forecasts for the next seven days.