The first US presidential debate between and and the elections in France and the UK are not only dominating international headlines this summer, they are also weighing heavily on the minds of many Germans. These are the findings of the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey, in which infratest-dimap pollsters questioned a representative sample of 1,294 German voters from July 1 to 3.
The future of democracy in the US is in danger, according to 67% of those polled.
US President Joe Biden is more popular in Germany than his challenger, former President Donald Trump. However, only 28% of those surveyed in the Deutschlandtrend poll think he is the more convincing candidate. Only 9% say the same of Trump.
The majority, namely 59% of respondents are not convinced by either candidate for the .
However, there are major differences when it comes to which party respondents support. Among Germans who support the far-right party, 40% say that Trump would be the better candidate. Biden receives the most support from supporters of the , at 45%.
Concerns over developments in France
Following the first round of the , almost six in ten German citizens are concerned about the future development of democracy in the neighboring country.
According to 61% of respondents, a government led by ‘s right-wing nationalist party would be. Around 19% think that nothing would change, while 5% think that it would be good for relations. Again, answers differ according to party affiliation.
With supporters of the populist AfD and the most skeptical.
Cautious mood in Germany
July is usually a relaxed month in Germany. The school year ends, companies go on vacation, the government takes a break, and many people go on vacation.
This year, there is also the . This brings back memories of 2006, when Germany enjoyed a “summer fairy tale” full of lightness and joy during the World Cup.
But 2024 is not 2006. The German national team has certainly done well up to the round of 16 and, according to Deutschlandtrend, more than half of Germans believe that the team will at least reach the semifinals. However, given the global mood of crisis and the politically uncertain future, many people are not feeling carefree this summer. Of those questioned in the Deutschlandtrend survey, 69% are also concerned about the future of democracy in Germany.
Dissatisfaction with the federal government is huge
79% of Germans are disappointed with the work of the coalition government. Only 19% think the coalition of the center-left , the ecologist Greens, and the neoliberal has done a good job. And this is reflected in political attitudes.
If general elections were to be held this week, the three coalition parties would fall far short of a majority and together would hardly receive more support than the center-right opposition bloc of the / (CDU/CSU).
The SPD and the Greens would get 14% (-1) and 13% (-1) of the vote respectively. The FDP would receive 5% (+1). The CDU/CSU, as the largest opposition force, would receive 31% (+/-0), while the AfD would receive 17% (-1). The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) would currently enter the Bundestag with 8% (+3). The Left Party, on the other hand, would no longer be represented in parliament with 3% (+/-0).
The feeling of insecurity has increased dramatically
According to police crime statistics released in the spring, the number of crimes in Germany last year reached its . At the same time, there has been a simultaneous increase in the population’s sense of insecurity. Compared to 23% seven years ago, 40% now say they feel unsafe in public spaces. In 2017, three-quarters of German citizens reported feeling very safe or safe in public places, streets, or on public transport, compared to just over half today.
The most common fears are theft and verbal attacks in public. Fears of being beaten or sexually harassed are less common. Fear of being the victim of a terrorist attack is also less common.
When asked which party could best ensure public safety, most respondents favored the CDU/CSU.
Almost four in ten respondents believe that the CDU/CSU is the most competent party to fight crime and criminality. Some 16% of eligible voters prefer the AfD and 11% the SPD. At the time of the 2021 federal elections, twice as many people trusted the SPD on this issue.