Since its formation, the identity of the AIUDF has been as a party representing the interests of the sizeable Bengal-Muslim population of the state, spread across Lower Assam, the Barak Barak Valley and Central Assam.

Assamese nationalist politics in the state is largely in opposition to Bengali-Muslims, who are often tagged as “illegal immigrants” from Bangladesh.

In the Dhubri seat, a vast majority of the voters – estimated to be over 80% – are Bengali-Muslims, so much so that BJP leaders have declared it to be an unwinnable seat for them. This time, though, the party supremo faced a resounding rejection in this seat where its primary voter base is concentrated. While the Congress received 59.9% of the vote share in the seat, the AIUDF came in second with just 18.72%. Not only in Dhubri, the numbers indicate that minority people voted in overwhelming numbers for Congress candidates in the two other seats in which the AIUDF contested – Karimganj and Nagaon. In both these seats as well, Muslim voters are well over half the electorate.

This is the first time that the party will not have any MPs: in 2009, it got one MP, Ajmal; in 2014, it had three; and in 2019, Ajmal had been its lone MP once again.

During the course of the election, in conversations with voters in the Karimganj and Dhubri constituencies, many had told The Indian Express that they did not view the AIUDF as an option in this election. Some were wary of its image as a “communal party”, and the Congress’s repeated allegation that it is the B-team of the BJP has resonated across a large section of voters.

AIUDF general secretary admitted that this image permeated its target vote-base.

“Somehow, they (the Congress) have convinced the common people that we are hand in hand with the BJP and we have failed to convince them that this is not true. But it is Congress people who are constantly joining the BJP, their MLAs cross-voted during voting for Rajya Sabha MPs and the President,” he said.

However, it is not just the Congress who advocated against the AIUDF. At least in Karimganj, local leaders of several Muslim bodies – such as Ahle Sunnat, Nadwatut Tamir and Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind – expressed their support for the Congress candidate and contributed to efforts to consolidate votes behind him. A leader of the All Assam Minority Students’ Union, which has a strong grassroots network, said that they had also “encouraged people to align with a more liberal force”.

“It doesn’t help the image of the community to be associated with a communal party. People also realised that there’s no point voting for the party as it will only help the BJP because of the vote split,” he said.

AIUDF’s Islam said that the party has set up a fact-finding team to visit every constituency and identify what went wrong. However, the losses might not have been unforeseen for the AIUDF, which had on several occasions made clear its interest to join the opposition alliance but been rejected by the Congress. The Congress and the AIUDF had contested the 2021 Assam assembly elections as partners but Congress snapped ties with it soon after.

“Ultimately, the common voters went for the Congress as their option to challenge the BJP and Modi… After our fact finding, we will rectify what went wrong and contest the 2026 polls in full swing. Wins and losses are part of politics,” he said.

It is still the third largest party in the Assembly, with 16 of 126 MLAs, spread across Central and Lower Assam and the Barak Valley. The Congress’s 29 MLAs which were elected in 2021 are mostly concentrated in the same regions, aside from a handful in Upper Assam. However, the Congress is keen to not ally with the AIUDF again, as its association with the party cost it heavily in Upper Assam in 2021.