AT this time in his presidency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s job approval is arguably the lowest for any Nigerian president in history, but that doesn’t mean his expected 2027 reelection bid (for which shadow campaign has begun), is irretrievably doomed. The all-time poor public perception and rating of his time so far in Aso Rock is also largely his own goal which means if he could get his hubris out of the way, his bumbling presidency which has looked experimental in the last one year, is redeemable.

For the 16 years between when he was governor of Lagos and now president of Nigeria, Tinubu simply transmogrified into god of politics, first in Lagos, before stretching his shrine to South/Mid-West, then the rest of Nigeria, forging geo-political alliances critical to the conquest he said was a lifetime ambition. Along the way, Bourdillion faithful geometricised, casting their faith in the bullions and the storied Tinubu political magic wand, despite a couple of electoral bruises like the pains the Adelekes inflicted in Osun.

But there is no denying the special grace on the President. To get to Aso Rock, doors kept opening unto him, where there should no way. Those who had political capacity then to shut him out using state powers and resources, inexplicably left the space for him to roam. He strolled to the ruling party nomination which then party leader and president pleaded for, from APC governors and the asking was definitely not for today’s C-in-C.

A bruising general election, saw him hobble into Aso Rock, and a judicial dogfight has kept him there.

When you talk of the remotest possibility of such an incumbent losing re-election, even in the face of a disastrous but salvageable first term, you are inviting punditry scorn, considering that elections have forever lacked integrity in Nigeria and all poor-performing incumbents before now, not named Goodluck Jonathan, had “easily” won reelection.

But as uneven as Nigeria’s elections, today’s Tinubu is a very vulnerable, very beatable incumbent, except his performance stock sees a reasonable bump in months from now. If the current pains of his reforms hold till the dawn of 2025, he would be running on a very abysmal record in 2027.

The president’s orbit which is very upbeat about his reelection chances on the forecast that tangible gains of the current reform pains would be undeniable in another 18 months, appears to be missing a major metric in assessing the chances of the president with hungry and angry Nigerians.

Unlike 2023, when as APC candidate Tinubu was able to distance himself from then-President Muhammadu Buhari’s policy pains and even recruiting party renegades like Nasir el-Rufai for a judicial mutiny to defeat the wrong-headed currency policy of that era, the referendum this time, is on Nigeria on Tinubu’s watch and no amount of excuses, blame-game, scapegoating and sugarcoating, will shift the burden of proof.

In 2027, it is a simple question of if Nigerians are better off than four years ago, though election issues like vote-buying and other malfeasances, can’t be discounted. But economy is going to remain the biggest talking point for a country like Nigeria, just climbing out of the hole of being the poverty capital of the world, before the current administration plunged it back in, this time, deeper than ever thought, with the crisis of cost of living and feeding, escalating, like never seen before in modern Nigeria.

Already, in the minds of many Nigerians, Tinubu is an over-hyped, under-achieving administrator with underwhelming but overblown performance as Lagos governor. He is now seen as a deliberate media creation in Lagos, to achieve national name-recognition for his lifelong ambition. His Lagos boys, running the flailing federal economy are now being derided as mere provincial tax collectors during his time in Lagos, while estranged Bourdillion alum, Raji Fashola is now being toasted as the real architect of modern Lagos, a garland, long worn for Tinubu, to position him for the position he currently occupies. Like Jonathan, Tinubu is in a bad place with the electorate but he has a fighting chance crawling out of the pit he dug for himself in the name of spirit-induced reform, starting with getting the economy out of the hell-hole he had driven it. Those who want to make him a one-termer have seen the same opening Boko Haram ripped in Jonathan’s rear for APC to pounce, in the Hunger Haram ravaging the country and expectedly preparing to pounce too, especially the Muslim North, already feeling shortchanged by a government it gave minority support. In 2023, save for Jigawa and Borno, VP Kashim Shettima’s home, which broke for him, Tinubu lost in all Muslim majority Northern States, but not overwhelmingly. North’s second son, Atiku Abubakar (Buhari is first), took Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe by slender margins, while spoiler-suspect, Rabiu took Kano by a wide margin. Turaki also took Taraba and expectedly, Adamawa, while Tinubu was the only of the leading trio in the race who lost both his ancestral and adopted states.

Now the nuances are different. Appointment patronages have been made and still being made. Local and group interests; ethnic, political, religious and corporate, can now say with some convictions where they stand with the administration. The feared Islamization agenda of Muslim/Muslim ticket which drove Christians in mind-blowing mass movement to Peter Obi of Labour, has ebbed. In its place is Hungernization which if not quickly resolved would lead to greater exodus in 2027, to the same Obi who is seen as better with economy, and this time, he might just secure the needed breakthrough with enough Muslim North like Tinubu in 2023, to sack Tinubu. I pity those in the President’s world, who think Nigeria isn’t UK where a fumbling administration was just terminated. Hungry men are angry men, everywhere.

Atiku edged Tinubu slightly in Muslim North the last time because somehow Buhari was compelled to be involved with his half-hearted support for his party’s candidate as then leader, though Tinubu still lost his predecessor’s backyard to “home-boy” Atiku. Now, Tinubu has to seek his votes and Buhari is no longer duty-bound to “help”. Since reportedly frustrated out of the ruling party, ex-national vice chairman North West, Salihu Lukman has been openly boasting North would make Tinubu a single-termer. He is simply saying more Muslim North than 2023, would rally against the President. It sounds like a plan, in the face of the open political realignments and visitations on-going, up-North. The threat is for Tinubu to handle before it metastatizes.

In dueling with the Tinubu administration recently over a federal appointment from his state, Zamfara State governor of PDP hue, Dauda Lawal Dare, hinted how the imminent Tinubu Vs North, which is always closing partisan rank when grappling a Southern president, would likely shape out. Lawal was a Chief Protocol in Nigerian Embassy in the US. He left First Bank as an Executive Director, and holds a PhD. Yet, that global exposure hasn’t blunted his minority-North phobia. If I were the president instead of massaging the implacable oppressors, I would focus more on the oppressed, empowering more and masculating them. Their scattered numbers might just be enough to flip strongholds.