SINGAPORE: On Jun 17, the world came dangerously close to an outright armed conflict in the South China Sea.
The clash between China and the Philippines in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal was the most serious ever documented. Things could have easily escalated beyond a Filipino sailor’s severed thumb - but for a measure of restraint and a whole lot of luck.
One might have seen this coming after more than a year of high tensions between the two countries.
Besides the usual disruptions of Philippine rotation and resupply missions to the garrison stationed on the beached Sierra Madre warship, there were signs of the noose tightening. In the fortnight leading up to the latest fracas, China accused Filipino troops of pointing firearms at the coast guard and destroying Chinese fishing nets in the shoal’s vicinity.
In video footage of the Jun 17 episode released by the Philippine military, the Chinese coast guard can be seen right alongside the Sierra Madre - just short of boarding the outpost. In a fait accompli, they might have pushed the Filipinos off the rusting hulk to resolve the stalemate once and for all, potentially igniting a wider conflict that could involve the United States.
That did not happen. Instead, the Chinese coast guard resorted to the unprecedented means of wielding knives, an axe and other weapons, adding to the usual ramming of boats. They managed to board and seize rubber dinghies, confiscate firearms, and severely damage navigational systems.
That this incident did not erupt into a full-scale armed conflict is down to two elements: Restraint and luck.
A MEASURE OF RESTRAINT
Restraint has been the constant refrain in the South China Sea. The Chinese have argued that their coast guards had exercised restraint and acted “professionally and reasonably” in this latest skirmish.
Yet, the boarding and seizure of Philippine Navy boats, which per international law qualify for sovereign immunity status, could have been construed as an act of war. Had the Sierra Madre - still a commissioned navy vessel despite being grounded and disused since 1999 - been boarded in the heated frenzy, the situation could have easily escalated out of control and potentially triggered the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the United States.
In the end, it was self-restraint by the Filipinos that prevented escalation.
Some of the Philippine Navy personnel involved in the mission are highly-trained elite forces from the Naval Special Operations Command. This incident might have ended in an uglier manner if they had vigorously fought back against the comparatively less well-trained Chinese coast guards.
Wary of being baited into firing the first shot that could invite retaliation in the name of self-defence, the garrison on the Sierra Madre most likely did not fire warning shots, per standard rules of engagement, which allowed the Chinese to push this close to the outpost. The troops standing on deck issued verbal warning and tossed water overboard at the Chinese coast guards right below, as seen in the video footage.
DEPENDING ON LUCK TO PREVAIL?
And there was just sheer luck that the confrontation resulted in just one severe casualty, even if it was the most serious to date. But can one continue to count on luck even if one or both parties exercise some level of restraint?
The Mutual Defense Treaty was not invoked in large part because Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr set the bar pretty high at the Shangri-La Dialogue a month ago. He said getting to the point “where any of our participants, civilian or otherwise have been killed” was "almost certainly going to be a red line".
Based on past run-ins with the Chinese, Manila had assiduously avoided the invocation of the treaty. According to American military-legal terms, the Chinese acts would have amounted to non-kinetic means of the use of illegal force even though the clause “armed attack” within the treaty was not clearly defined.
This time, Manila still sought to de-escalate tensions, most plausibly because the severity of the Jun 17 incident could have brought the countries - and even potentially the Americans - to the precipice of outright armed conflict.
On Jun 23, Mr Marcos said that the Philippines is “not in the business to instigate wars” in a speech to troops of the unit overseeing the South China Sea.
PROBING THE “RED LINE” IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
All these could be music to China’s ears. Beijing has managed to further probe the American-Filipino “red line”.
The Jun 17 incident yielded some vital data points: Manila’s reticence to escalate tensions and Washington’s apparent ambivalence about committing more robust forms of support to the Philippines even without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty.
China also demonstrated the lengths it could go to disrupt the Filipinos’ moves and its escalation dominance. The yawning capability asymmetry between the two countries was on clear display: The largest Chinese coast guard vessel, displacing over 10,000 tonnes, was deployed at close proximity to the Sierra Madre outpost barely a week after the fracas.
All in all, it would convince Beijing that it remains feasible to play the long game - to slowly but surely outlast the Filipinos, given the deteriorating conditions of the Sierra Madre, and compel them into accepting Chinese terms eventually.
The risk of a premeditated armed conflict in the South China Sea, over Second Thomas Shoal in particular, remains low. The bigger worry is either country sleepwalking into a fight.
China could be risking a high-stakes gambit by pushing the envelope of coercion, raising the chances of a miscalculation when emotions run high.
Will attempts to de-escalate, if such eventuality ever transpires, be effective in avoiding conflict? It would behove Beijing to take a bold step back and avoid crossing the firebreak.
Collin Koh is senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He primarily researches on maritime security and naval affairs in Southeast Asia, including the South China Sea disputes.