One of the BizNews tribe’s favourite contributors, Rob Hersov, writes about the knife edge that South Africa sits on.
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By Rob Hersov, South African patriot, investor, free marketeer, libertarian, and political honey badger.
Our beloved country sits on a knife’s edge: this is our do or die moment.
Within two weeks we expect to have a government in place, and this could be our new beginning/our restart, or the beginning of the end and a rapid descent into the abyss.
What is obvious to all is the extraordinary demise of the ANC, the rapid arrival of MK, the stagnation of the EFF, the new-kid-on-the-block-PA, the steady-as-you-go DA, and the all-hat-no-cattle Rise Mzansi. Another way to see it is this……
The ANC shed itself of its hard left and racist elements a while back (Julius and his EFF) and has just shed itself of RET kleptocrats and tribalists (Zuma and his MK, and Zulus, and the likes of Iqbal Surve), leaving the BEE-elites, cadres and ineptocrats (yes, Cyril’s ANC, the Xhosa-nostra).
And the math shows that the “41% ANC” plus MK plus EFF would have 64%.
The much-vaunted solution to save this beleaguered country is for the DA, IFP (and others like the PA, Action SA, and VF+) to team up NOT in a coalition but via a co-operation. This is described as a Confidence & Supply arrangement, where Cyril remains President and the ANC appoints the cabinet (the “executive”), while the DA and allies appoint the Speaker in Parliament and chair all the key portfolio committee’s (the “legislature”) and appoint some of the key DGs.
The DA team defend Cyril against a no-confidence vote (the “Confidence” in the Confidence and Supply agreement), and in turn the ANC leave the DA to do what they do best – oversight – with the ANC providing the air cover for this to happen on pre-agreed matters (the “Supply” in the Confidence and Supply agreement).
But now I come to the sting in the tail- JZ actually wants the ANC and DA to team up in some way. He wants them to marry. He knows both won’t survive this marriage.
What everyone is missing is that the President is elected by a simple majority. And both the President and the Speaker are elected in a secret ballot.
In my view, too many of the ANC voters (and a lot of DA voters) do not want the ANC and DA to team up, and there will be a lot of defections from both parties. All the ANC defections will join Zuma/MK, which means that many of the secret ballot votes won’t go the way that Cyril and Helen expect and demand – and a MK candidate could win.
I have said to all who would listen for many months that JZ is vastly more popular than people recognize, and I believe MK will soon have enough power to simply make SA ungovernable again. I see two manifestations of this dynamic.
The first will be the propensity for violence between MK and the ANC on the one hand, and MK and the IFP on the other. This is likely to mirror the Seven Days war that played out in the Midlands in 1990, but on a much broader scale. Zuma has Russian backing, and the Gupta’s are also contributing to MK.
The second will be the continued erosion of the rule of law at national level, by applying the Stalingrad Defence option that JZ has perfected (he recently called for the IEC to do a full recount of the election). This will undermine parliamentary processes and erode the constitution to the point where it ceases to be relevant.
MK is now a relevant party, probably with military capabilities at local level. It will wield enough power to prevent the restoration of investor confidence, so capital flight will accelerate, and FDI and job creation will disappear. Mafia-type wealth extraction will accelerate.
There is also the secession dynamic to consider. This could be accommodated constitutionally as the devolution of more power to the provinces, and maybe KZN pushing for secession, but the extra-parliamentary option is the most likely, which could trigger a Biafra-style civil war. Scary and depressing? Yes.
Maybe take a deep breath and at least consider the options no-one is discussing:
- The “easiest 51% option” of ANC + EFF + PA teaming up, with the PA defending property rights and protecting the economy. In my view, the EFF is actually more pragmatic and less scary than MK.
- The “long shot option” of killing off the ANC once and for all with the DA + MPC parties + PA + EFF + MK coming together (don’t press me on how this operates). The main positive here is that the ANC cadre money waterfall collapses.
- Neutralize MK by “giving” them control of KZN in partnership with the IFP.
My advice – batten the hatches, fill your cellar.