What happens next when a permitting “pause” invoked by the executive branch of government is “paused” by the judicial branch? Participants in the US liquified natural gas (LNG) business will find out in the coming days after a federal judge in Louisiana sided with 16 plaintiff states, invoking a preliminary injunction which puts the Department of Energy’s pause on permitting for new LNG infrastructure on hold pending an administrative review.

In issuing his order, District Judge James Cain, Jr. called the justifications offered by the Department of Energy (DOE) for the pause "completely without reason or logic and is perhaps the epiphany of ideocracy,” echoing assessments of the policy move put forth by its critics since the policy was invoked by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm in January. Cain added that DOE’s move was "above and beyond its scope of authority," adding that he had “reviewed the voluminous studies attached as exhibits, all of which boast of both the economic and environmental benefits of exporting natural gas."

Not surprisingly, the White House responded by pledging to keep the pause in place in defiance of the court. “We remain committed to informing our decisions with the best available economic and environmental analysis, underpinned by sound science,” White House spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández told the AP in an email.

It was a victory for the 16 states, most specifically for Texas and Louisiana, the Gulf Coast states that are home to most of America’s LNG export facilities and whose economies stand to be most negatively impacted by the permitting delays. But, coming as it does six months into a “pause” that Granholm says would be reviewed shortly after the November elections have come and gone, the practical impacts of the decision are likely to be negligible.

That is, assuming that Granholm and the White House really do intend to lift the pause once their review of the economic and environmental impacts is completed. Some critics have feared that the pause would most likely become a permanent thing should incumbent Joe Biden prevail over Donald Trump in November. Certainly, that would be the preference of the climate activist community, which applauded the administration’s move when the pause was invoked and who provide so much monetary support for Democratic campaigns.

Granholm and the White House have a variety of means to ensure no permitting progress happens before December without having to resort to any extraordinary measures. But, unless the administration can convince higher courts to reverse Judge Cain’s injunction on appeal, Monday’s ruling will render an effort to make the pause a permanent feature of federal policy far more difficult to execute.

The decision is a significant win for the 16 state attorneys general and for America’s LNG industry, but no one should think it will become the final move on this administrative and political chessboard. What happens next is anyone’s guess.