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CITY OF TROY destroyed his doubters with his emphatic win in the Epsom Derby, but in the last 50 years of the Eclipse Stakes only the greats have landed this prestigious double.
Mill Reef (1971), Nashwan (1989) and Sea The Stars (2009) are the only ones on that roll of honour, so although the Aidan O’Brien-trained charge is long odds-on to add his name to that illustrious company; buyer beware!
I actually think he will join that esteemed trio and land the mile-and-a-quarter event, but I won't be backing him at odds of 1/3 and instead will be having a small each-way interest on AL RIFFA.
Of course as a four-year-old he will have to give 10lbs, weight for age away to his classic winning rival, but there are reasons to believe that if all eight declared runners go to post, that the Joseph O’Brien-trained charge can hit the first three at around odds of 28/1.
A lightly raced son of Wootton Bassett, the selection won the National Stakes as a juvenile, but in a curtailed three-year-old season he only made it to the race course for two starts the best of which was a three-quarters-of-a-length second to Ace Impact in the Group Two Prix Guillaume at Deauville, a line of form richly cemented by the winner when he shot to victory in the Arc in Paris.
This year Al Riffa ran a cracker on his debut when a close-up fourth in the Prix Ganay at Longchamp, before finding the fast ground around Saratoga too much of a test of speed in the Grade One Manhattan Stakes.
With rain forecast for the Esher track through Friday and to a lesser extent today, I expect he will be held up by Dylan Brown McMonagle and pick up the place pieces late on.
The Sprint Stakes at 1.50 should really be at the mercy of course and distance winner Live In The Dream, but he was hugely disappointing in the Achilles Stakes at Haydock Park and I would much rather have a small play on the mare MAKAROVA.
Connections have been of the opinion that she could play at the highest table of sprinting this year, but things haven’t really worked out and she was way too keen in the early exchanges when not surprisingly fading late, when four lengths off the Australian filly Asfoora in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. A bit of give in the ground on this much stiffer track should be more her port of call, though, and the key to her chance is for Hector Crouch getting her to settle early on before producing a whirlwind finish late on.
In the handicaps on the card at the Esher track I have a keen fancy for SILENT FILM in the seven furlong all aged event at 2.25. A winner over the course and distance as a three-year-old off a mark of 89, the six-year-old charge has been admirably consistent since with wins off 94 and placed off 100.
Since moving from Charlie Appleby to Ian Williams the selection has won over a mile abroad and been placed back here in the UK off 97 and 98 and if we get an end to end gallop over this stiff seven furlongs, the son of New Approach could surprise at double-figure odds. Of her rivals, Metal Merchant is way better than he showed when seventh in the Royal Hunt Cup and is another who will be better suited to this slightly easier terrain.
SOPRANO (3.00) looks a solid favourite in the Distaff Stakes, but I think we can get much better value with PREPSCHOOL in the three-year-old handicap at 4.12. Michael Bell’s charge showed plenty of promise over this course and distance when a closing third behind Goodwood Odyssey, but then was slightly disappointing in the London Gold Cup at Newbury and then simply didn’t handle the track at Epsom in a class two handicap.
This much more conventional track should sit him perfectly and now fully 4lbs lower than for that aforementioned placed effort, I expect a big bounce back here at the main expense of Blake and Von Baer. The last named failed to fire at Haydock Park when last seen and has since been gelded.
Over at the Merseyside track there are some valuable prizes up for grabs, none more so than the always competitive Old Newton Cup over a mile-and-a-half at 3.15. The ground should be on the soft side of good this afternoon and that should certainly suit Chillingham, who I remember backing last year’s Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, but he ran too free through the first half-mile and did well to hit the frame, albeit some 11 lengths off the impressive winner Vauban.
He hasn’t troubled the judge in seven subsequent outings but the assessor has found it hard to drop him in the handicap, so a mark of 96 looks difficult, but there is so little strength in depth in this year’s renewal that I think he has to be an each-way play with many of the bookmakers offering extended place terms.
The feature Lancashire Oaks (2.40) looks wide open this year and I don’t really have a very strong fancy, but Forest Fairy is obviously better than her finishing effort in the Epsom Oaks suggests and could well bounce back behind my pick QUEEN OF THE PRIDE. The selection battled on gamely to win the Pinnacle Stakes over the course and distance last time out and can take another step forward here as she must do so to win.
MIRSKY looks set to strike for Ian Williams in the seven-furlong handicap at 4.25 on his fourth start since coming over from France. He ran much better than his finishing position in the Royal Hunt Cup suggested when 12th of the 29 runners, while I am banking on the forecast rains coming in time for BURGLAR’S DREAM in the Beverley 4.00.