Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt are expected to dominate the African natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market from 2023 to 2027.

This is according to data from the African Energy Chamber in its August 2023 State of African Energy report.

According to the report, Africa’s 2023 natural gas supply is estimated at about 25.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d), a 1% year-on-year increase over 2022.

Meanwhile, the long-term supply potential, in line with global potential, is expected to grow by 7% to 27.4 Bcf/d by 2025, by close to 30% to 32.8 Bcf/d, and by about 65% to 41.6 Bcf/d by 2035 over the 2023 levels.

Also, the long-term commercial flows from Africa, too, are expected to stay relatively flat at 27 – 28 Bcf/d over the remainder of this decade and the next decade before starting to decline.

Short-term gas supply

A part of the report stated: “Short-term natural gas supply from Africa is expected to see an increase from 2023 levels of 25.5 Bcf/d to just over 27 Bcf/d in 2024 and stay relatively flat at about 27 Bcf/d till 2027.

“Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria are expected to drive the majority of the natural gas supply with an average of 80% of the total African gas coming from these three countries. Individually, the short-term output of these three countries is estimated to stay relatively flat.

“Algeria is expected to see a growth from 10 Bcf/d in 2023 to 11 Bcf/d by 2027. Egypt is expected to stay flat at 6.25 Bcf/d. Nigeria is expected to fluctuate marginally between 4.5 Bcf/d and 5.5 Bcf/d. 

The AEC report further highlighted the fact that Africa has pledged greater focus on the monetization of discovered natural gas, thereby ensuring proper usage of gas as a transition fuel and also limiting emissions from rampant gas flaring. It however noted that in Nigeria, the “Decade of Gas” policy launched in March 2021, has maintained a snail-like pace in implementation.

Nigeria’s Decade of Gas is a government-led initiative aimed at harnessing the country’s vast gas reserves to drive economic growth and development

A part of the report stated: “Two years after its declaration, Nigeria’s ‘Decade of Gas’ policy has recorded underperformance at a paltry 5% to date, as opposed to the 85% benchmark set by the federal government.”

What you should know

In the June 2023 Statistical Review of Energy Report, it was highlighted that Nigeria witnessed a decline in its natural gas production, reaching 40.4 billion cubic meters in 2022. The country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports also experienced a decrease, totalling 19.6 billion cubic meters in 2022.