Kevin Costner began developing Horizon: An American Saga as a film series in 1988 before he revitalized the Western genre in Hollywood with his feature directorial debut, the epic 1990 Western film Dances with Wolves, which brought him two Academy Awards and made Costner arguably the most powerful star in Hollywood.

Since Dances with Wolves, his relationship with the Western genre, in which he had his breakthrough career role in the 1985 Western film Silverado, has mirrored the erratic nature of his overall career. The actor's second feature directorial outing, the 1997 post-apocalyptic neo-Western film The Postman, was a commercial and critical disaster, while his third directorial outing, the acclaimed 2003 revisionist Western film Open Range, was a commercial and critical success.

In 2018, Costner, who won a prime-time Emmy Award for the 2012 Western television miniseries Hatfields & McCoys, embarked on the first regular television series role of his career in the neo-Western television series Yellowstone, in which he starred as Montana rancher John Dutton. The actor demonstrated the extent of his commitment to Horizon in May 2023, when he departed Yellowstone, ostensibly to focus on Horizon, for which he took the extreme step of investing his own money in the expansive four-part, 12-hour production.

The financial risk he took with Horizon, beginning with the first installment, Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1, has seemingly generated as much attention as the film, becoming a commercial and critical disappointment. With the second installment, Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 2, set to be released within two months of Chapter 1, there are serious questions regarding whether Costner will have the money to fully realize his bold Horizon vision.

Kevin Costner Is on the Hook for Horizon

Given the combination of the generally negative critical reviews that accompanied the release of Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1 and the film’s bulky three-hour running time, the opening-weekend box-office projections for Chapter 1 and Chapter 2, which were shot back-to-back for a total cost of approximately $100 million, were relatively modest, if not bleak.

In its opening weekend of domestic release, Chapter 1 finished third at the box office with a gross of approximately $11 million, way behind the blockbuster duo of Inside Out 2 and A Quiet Place: Day One. In its second weekend, Chapter 1 finished in sixth position with a gross of $5.5 million, for a current domestic total of approximately $22 million.

In addition to the reported $38 million personal investment that Costner made in Horizon, he and his fellow investors are responsible for the cost of marketing the series, with Chapter 1 having a reported marketing cost of $30 million. What isn’t clear is whether the $38 million figure covers only Chapter 1, whether it includes the marketing cost for Chapter 1, and whether the $38 million represents the entirety of Costner’s financial exposure.

Under the terms of his deal with Warner Bros. Pictures, which is solely attached to Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 as a distribution partner, Warner Bros. receives 8% of the box-office gross. That leaves the rest of the box-office revenue for Costner, minus theatrical rental fees, which typically consume approximately 50% of a film’s box-office gross. By this calculation, he would receive approximately $4.6 million for every $10 million Chapter 1 accumulates at the box office.

Within this structure, Chapter 1 must gross at least $80 million at the box office for Costner to break even. Given that Chapter 1, which faces dim prospects in overseas markets, has presently grossed approximately $22 million domestically, this correlates to approximately $10 million for Costner, who mortgaged his Santa Barbara home to help finance Horizon.

Yellowstone Fans Aren't Excited About Horizon

While many reviews of Horizon: An American Saga—Chapter 1 have described the film as convoluted, disjointed, and self-indulgent, many people have also expressed the opinion that it would have been better as a television production. One of the ironies of Kevin Costner’s departure from Yellowstone is that Yellowstone enabled him to realize Horizon by providing the actor with a loyal and sizable new audience. With Chapter 1, the conventional thinking was that if his core Yellowstone audience went to see Chapter 1, the film would gross between $15 million and $20 million in its opening weekend of release.

However, while Chapter 1 has performed best in the states where Yellowstone has been most popular, such as Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah, Horizon hasn’t attracted enough Yellowstone viewers to make Chapter 1 a box-office success. Moreover, while Chapter 1 certainly needed more than just Yellowstone fans to be successful, Yellowstone viewers haven’t expressed much enthusiasm for Horizon, in which Costner, despite his omnipresent connection to the film, has relatively limited screen time.

Costner Needs a Streaming Savior for Horizon: An American Saga

Kevin Costner’s easiest path to recouping his financial investment in Horizon seems to be to land a major streaming deal. Given his star power and the fact that Chapter 1 is part of a series, the actor seems well-positioned to negotiate a lucrative streaming deal, especially if a streaming service believes that many viewers avoided watching Chapter 1 in a theater with the expectation of watching the film through streaming.

Regardless of whether Costner, who previously spent over $20 million of his own money to complete the filming of the disastrous 1995 action film Waterworld, is able to avoid a financial loss with Horizon, given the enormous economic and professional cost that Horizon has exacted from Costner, one wonders if the now 69-year-old actor, knowing what he knows now, would do it all over again. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 is playing in theaters now.