What does it mean for a moderate to win the Presidential vote in Iran? This is a question everyone is asking, as the hardliner state has long been a focal point for political analysts. Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory over hardliner Saeed Jalili, following Ebrahim Raisi’s tragic helicopter crash, suggests a possible respite for Iranian youth dissatisfied with the conservative state established after the 1979 revolution. However, significant change is unlikely, given that Iran’s core establishment remains hardliner.

Pezeshkian’s influence on foreign policy will be limited. Key areas such as nuclear policy, relations with the United States, and Middle East conflicts will continue to be controlled by the same regime that has ruled since 1979. Nevertheless, a moderate President could mean some internal reforms and a more dialogue-oriented approach toward the US, contingent on the diminishing role of the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader will eventually be replaced, and this transition period could empower the President to implement his moderate policies.

However, this is just one potential direction Iranian politics may take. The powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls Middle East policy and its proxies, and the new President’s arrival does not alter this status quo. Therefore, not much will change in Iran beyond the label of having a moderate President.

As for Pakistan’s relations with Iran, a warm exchange with the new President, perhaps a meeting of the premiers, could ensure continuity in the relationship established during Ebrahim Raisi’s tenure.