Kamala Harris odds for President surge amid Biden questions: Presidential election odds, predictions 2024
While Donald Trump remains a resounding favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, for Democrats, the conversation is entirely about whether Joe Biden will still be the nominee for president come November.
After an awful performance by Biden in the first debate of the 2024 election, multiple reports indicate that many Democrats strongly believe the president needs to step aside for a different candidate. Of course, even if Biden agreed that he was a liability — or at least not the best candidate to win the electoral college — it wouldn't be as simple as just replacing his name on ballots.
Most glaringly, there's the question of all of the money that has been raised for the Biden/Harris campaign. According to campaign finance experts, the only person who can use that money for the 2024 presidential campaign other than Biden is Kamala Harris. This would be possible only if she is the presidential candidate, not if she is the vice-presidential candidate for someone other than Biden.
So does that make Harris the most likely candidate to potentially replace Biden as Trump's opponent? Let's take a look at the latest presidential election odds and election predictions.
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
As of Wednesday, with fewer than 18 weeks until the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris has +1100 odds to win the presidency. That translates to a 7.04% chance to win the 270 electoral votes necessary to become president.
The odds of Harris becoming president have continued to rise over the past few weeks. Before the debate, Harris was a +5000 long shot, with a 1.72% chance of winning the presidency. Immediately following that first debate, Harris' odds vaulted all the way to +1200. Earlier this week, her odds got slightly longer at +1600, before moving to the current price of +1100.
The current Kamala Harris odds for president of +1100 are the best her odds have been this entire presidential election campaign. Although Harris' odds have improved significantly, she is not yet the candidate with the next-best odds after Trump and Biden. That remains Gavin Newsom at +900. The California governor's odds skyrocketed from +2500 to +650 following Thursday's presidential debate.
Donald Trump remains a -175 favorite to win the 2024 election and re-claim the White House. That gives Trump a 53.76% chance to win the electoral college based on the current election odds, which offer a complementary perspective to national polls. Trump became a -200 favorite after last week's presidential debate; he was -150 heading into the debate.
President Joe Biden's odds of reelection are +375, which means the current presidential election predictions based on the odds project a 17.79% chance of a second Biden term. Biden was +163 (33.31% chance) before the first debate and plummeted to +425 immediately after.
Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
---|---|---|
Republicans | -200 | 60.65% |
Democrats | +145 | 37.13% |
Independent/Any Other Party | +4000 | 2.22% |