Ted Cruz may not have as big a lead as he would have been hoping for in the race for his Texas Senate seat, according to a poll.

A Manhattan Institute survey of 600 likely voters in Texas found that Cruz has a 3 point lead (46 percent to 43 percent) over his Democratic rival, rep. Colin Allred. This margin is down from a double-digit lead the incumbent Republican has enjoyed in previous Texas senate surveys.

When broken down further, the Manhattan Institute poll found that Allred has an 11-point lead over Cruz among female voters (49 percent to 38 percent) as well as an eight-point lead over the potentially crucial independent voters (43 percent to 35 percent).

The polling group also suggests that Cruz may find himself in a “tight race” partially because of Allred’s favorability. The Democrat holds a net favorability rating of plus 12 points, compared to minus nine for the GOP Senator.

“However, 45 percent of all likely voters—and 54 percent of GOP likely voters—do not know who Allred is or report no impression of him whatsoever, positive or negative,” wrote Jesse Arm, director of external affairs and presidential initiatives at the Manhattan Institute.

“Thus it remains entirely possible for Republicans to define Allred negatively between now and election day, change the tenor of this race, and expand their lead to approach something comparable to Donald Trump‘s margin.”

The Manhattan Institute poll shows that Trump leads President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election by 45 percent to 36 percent.

Cruz’s and Allred’s offices have been contacted for comment via email.

While Cruz is considered the favorite to win reelection in November, there have been polls that suggest the race between the Republican and Allred could be close.

A June University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research survey of 931 likely voters also gave Cruz just a 3 point lead over Allred (45 percent to 42 percent).

In 2018, Cruz won reelection to the Senate for the first time, following a fiercely competitive race with former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke. Cruz ended up beating O’Rourke by just over 2.6 points.

Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, a professor of American politics at the University of North Texas, previously suggested that Cruz won’t be caught “flat-footed” against Allred in this election campaign, like he was with O’Rourke in 2018.

“Beto O’Rourke came on like gangbusters; Cruz and his supporters took until the summer to realize that he was a threat,” Eshbaugh-Soha told Newsweek in March. “Cruz has already positioned himself to start campaigning now. He won’t let Allred build the kind of momentum O’Rourke had.”

Election forecasters Race to the White House are giving Cruz a 78 percent chance of winning November’s Texas Senate race, with Allred estimated to have a 22 percent chance.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

The post Ted Cruz Gets Bad News in Texas Senate Race appeared first on Newsweek.