I have an idea on what the secret battle is in The Wheel of Time season 3 premiere. Among the biggest teases we've received thus far about the next season pertains to a fight in the first episode. According to Wheel of Time showrunner Rafe Judkins, there's going to be an "absolutely bananas" fight that's one of the most "bonkers" set pieces he's ever seen on TV. That makes it sound like something we would get from a season finale, which makes the upcoming season all the more exciting.

Based on that description, Wheel of Time season 3 won't be getting a slow start and will jump right into the meat of the story. Of course, that raises some interesting questions about what this action will entail and what it means for the Wheel of Time characters. With Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time books as a guide, I think I have a good idea of what battle Wheel of Time is about to show.

Three Battles Are Massive Enough To Meet The Expectations Set By Judkins

When it comes to the source material, Wheel of Time won't have to look far if it wants to kick off season 3 with an action-packed spectacle. There are a few different opportunities for that, but whether they'll come to pass depends on the direction taken by the story. One option is Rand taking the Stone of Tear, which is the ending of book 3, The Dragon Reborn. This route would make at least some degree of sense, as there have been theories that Wheel of Time will cram The Dragon Reborn's biggest development into season 3's first episode in order to immediately jumpstart its adaptation of book 4, The Shadow Rising.

Similar to the Stone of Tear theory, The Wheel of Time could also let the Aes Sedai coup from The Shadow Rising happen early. In the books, Elaida leads a group of discontented Aes Sedai in a rebellion against Siuan Sanche, who is subsequently deposed as the Amylrin Seat and stilled. Siuan Sanche's downfall in The Wheel of Time has already been set up, so I'm certain this is going to happen; it's just a matter of "when" at this point. I expect it to occur in season 3, but I'm doubtful that we'll see it as early as the premiere.

A third possibility is that the fight is a continuation of Liandrin's storyline. In The Dragon Reborn, Liandrin escaped from the White Tower with her fellow Black Sisters. In the process of doing so, Liandrin and her allies brought about the deaths of several people, including Aes Sedai and Warders. This event paved the way for Nynaeve, Egwene, and Elayne to chase her to Tear, which brought the trio into the picture for The Dragon Reborn's ending. While there's no certainly Liandrin won't be in the White Tower in season 3, a Black Ajah conflict lines up with what's known about one of season 3's biggest stories.

Two of the three aforementioned battles match the description provided by the showrunner. Judkins mentioned that there would be "women in their 40s and 50s shredding each other." That implies both sides will consist of Aes Sedai. Both the White Tower coup and the Black Ajah's escape are consistent with that. However, the same can't be said for the Stone of Tear battle, which calls for some use of the One Power but isn't reliant on mostly female channelers.

Season 3's First Major Battle Is Probably The Black Ajah's Escape From The White Tower

The Black Ajah's Escape Culminated In 21 Deaths In The Dragon Reborn

All three scenarios could make for great action sequences, but of those, only one wouldn't come with all sorts of narrative risks: the Black Ajah's escape from the White Tower. While season 3 isn't an adaptation of The Dragon Reborn, at least parts of its story are likely to be featured, as they're vital to the setup for The Shadow Rising. That should include the fight with the Black Ajah, especially since it's already been confirmed that Tanchico is one of season 3's new locations. In The Shadow Rising, Tanchico is where Nynaeve and Elayne battle Liandrin and Moghedien in their quest to stop the Black Ajah.

With Nynaeve and Elayne's adventure in Tanchico expected to be one of the main storylines for season 3, it seems necessary to me for the Black Ajah to escape from the White Tower near the beginning of the season. Liandrin still has ties to the White Tower and we can presume that the Black Ajah's presence is still concentrated in Tar Valon. To properly lay the groundwork for their move to Tanchico, and the effort to catch up to them, The Wheel of Time needs to fully showcase what set all of this in motion, and for season 3, that should begin with the Black Ajah fighting the Aes Sedai as they steal the ter'angreal and flee from the White Tower.

It's Too Early For The Stone Of Tear Battle Or The Aes Sedai Coup

The Stone Of Tear & Aes Sedai Fights Are Both Likely To Happen, But Not Yet

Adding credence to the notion that season 3's secret battle is the Black Ajah's escape are the narrative problems that would come with the other possible paths. Theoretically, the show could have Rand claim Callandor early in order to have this development precede his journey into the Aiel Waste (just as did in the novels), but there's currently no setup for Rand to even want Callandor, much less launch a successful attack on the Stone of Tear. To get the most out of this crucial moment from the books, it'll be better if The Wheel of Time delays it if it's going to segue right into the plot of The Shadow Rising.

I have similar concerns about the Aes Sedai coup being the battle Judkins referred to in his comments. While it too fits his description of the opening battle perfectly, I don't think it's quite time for Siuan to be deposed. After what happened with Siuan Sanche at Cairhien, I want to see how things play out at the White Tower with the Aes Sedai now that they have legitimate reasons to question Siuan's leadership and transparency. Not spending a few episodes on the political tension in the White Tower would be a massive missed opportunity.

The same goes for the introductions of key players in that story, namely Gawyn, Gareth Byrne, and Elaida. Gawyn, the likable brother of Elayne cutting down Warders won't have any meaning if he's not already been introduced as such. Likewise, Elaida hasn't appeared yet and deserves some screen time before being allotted her role as Siuan's successor. The two being missing from the narrative in its current form creates obstacles that the show wouldn't face if it intends to see the Black Ajah cut a bloody path through the White Tower in The Wheel of Time season 3 premiere.