The cognoscenti in Washington are mentally preparing for war. Not so much in Ukraine or the Middle East, where they’re trying to keep the United States out of the fighting that’s raging already; but in the Taiwan Strait, where the shooting hasn’t started yet. If and when it does, everyone agrees, the resulting Sino-American clash would be hell. The question is, exactly what kind of hell?

Some “war games” (as think-tankers insist on calling their macabre tabletop exercises) suggest that the US and its Taiwanese and Japanese allies could repel a full-bore invasion attempt by mainland China, but at a horrendous cost: The US would lose tens of thousands of service members, dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and lots of other kit. The American and global economies would smolder in ruins for years.