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2025 NBA Finals Odds: Are Celtics Favored to Repeat? And Where Do Mavericks Land?

Newsweek 1 day ago

At the end of the 2024 NBA season, a familiar face hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy for a league-record 18th time. Outside of one inexplicable 122-84 blowout Game 4 loss, the Boston Celtics, led by All-NBA power forward Jayson Tatum and All-Star Jaylen Brown (the latter of whom was named Finals MVP) walloped the Dallas Mavericks in a brisk five-game series.

Dallas All-NBA guard Luka Doncic got minimal consistent help from his colleagues, including All-Star backcourt mate Kyrie Irving, a former Celtic. Though Doncic could score in bunches, his erratic defense proved somewhat costly on the other end of the hardwood. The Mavericks, the No. 5 seeds in the Western Conference, had been underdogs throughout their playoff run. The Celtics, meanwhile, were major favorites throughout their run, thanks to a five-out offense and a switch-heavy defense.

Boston finished the year with an 80-21 record combined between the playoffs (during which the club went a dominant 16-3) and regular season (64-18). With Tatum and Brown both under 28 years old, and starters Derrick White, a slick All-Defensive guard, and center Kristaps Porzingis both under 30, the Celtics seem primed to remain one of the East's elite talents for years to come.

All-Defensive Celtics guard Jrue Holiday, 34, remains one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, while former five-time All-Star big Al Horford, 38, has carved out a niche as a critical sixth man.

Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics celebrates in the locker room after Boston's 106-88 win against the Dallas Mavericks in Game Five of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden on June 17, 2024...

So do Vegas oddsmakers think either team has a decent shot at returning to the Finals next season?

Per FanDuel SportsBook, the Celtics are considered the favorite to win it all once again in 2025, with +300 odds. The Mavericks, meanwhile, aren't even seen as the favorites to get out of the Western Conference next season. Doncic and co. have been awarded just the third-best odds in the West at +900, behind the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets at +750 and the Minnesota Timberwolves at +850. Dallas bested Minnesota 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals this spring.

The young, ascendant Oklahoma City Thunder, whom Dallas bested in the second round of the playoffs, have been given +1000 odds to win it all next year. The Milwaukee Bucks netted similar +1000 odds, and are thus the second-most liked team in the Celtics' conference.

The Philadelphia 76ers, who could have enough cap space to sign a maximum-salaried free agent, and New York Knicks, who fell in a seven-game semifinal matchup with the Indiana Pacers thanks to a bevy of mounting injuries, trail them both at +1600.

Both the two finalists seem liable to improve at least around the margins via free agency and the draft this summer. All of Boston's six key rotation players are under contract through at least next season, but the team could afford to add a bit more defense off the bench and perhaps some Horford insurance in the frontcourt. Dallas starting small forward Derrick Jones Jr. is the only major Mavericks contributor who'll be hitting free agency this summer, though it may behoove the club to add more shooting along the wing this summer than Jones can provide.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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