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Export Data Revision: It’s time for serious stock-taking

thedailystar.net 2024/10/5

Bangladesh Bank has opened a can of worms with its revision of the balance of payment data -- there is no better way to put it.

It turns out that exports, too often billed as the shining light of the Bangladesh economy, were not as outstanding over the years as they were made out to be by the official government statistics.

As is standard practice, export data is recorded when the consignment is cleared by the customs for shipment.

But in Bangladesh, three different government bodies were recording the export data: the Export Promotion Bureau, the commerce ministry wing responsible for developing the nation's exports; the National Board of Revenue by way of customs; and the Bangladesh Bank, which recorded the actual receipts from the overseas shipment.

In theory, all three approaches should lead to more or less similar figures. In reality, the three yielded different statistics.

But, it was the Export Promotion Bureau's data recording, which showed the rosiest picture, that was published as the official export data. Why did the EPB's methodology yield the highest number of the three? There were incidences of double or triple counting the same consignment.

Now, on the insistence of the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh has decided to go with the customs data as the official export figure -- as it should have been the case always.

This misreporting of the export situation over the years has well and truly opened a can of worms.

Was there no oversight on the EPB's data collection practice? Why did the EPB and the NBR not sit down at the close of a fiscal year to reconcile their entries? Who should be held responsible for this fiasco? Or, was this intentional all this while and the authorities are doing a mea culpa now that they were caught by the IMF?

The event also gives rise to a bigger existential question: was the oft-peddled narrative of Bangladesh being an economic overperformer over the past decade or so a sham?

Exports and remittance are the two big drivers of the Bangladesh economy. The stellar GDP growth reported over the years was pinned on the impressive growth registered by the two drivers.

Surely, Bangladesh's actual GDP is markedly lower than what was reported all this while.

This also raises another question: is Bangladesh anywhere near ready for graduation from the least-developed country bracket in 2026?

Bangladesh's LDC graduation was determined by its economic performance and now that it needs revision, surely the scheduled timeframe for graduation should be calibrated, too.

With graduation from the LDC bracket, Bangladesh will lose all the trade benefits it currently enjoys. With the trade benefits, Bangladesh's exports flattered to deceive. Will the exporters be able to manage without it? Can the Bangladesh economy afford a further drop in exports from 2026?

There must be serious stock-taking by the Awami League government of more than 15 years to this end.

And yet, the biggest damage the readjustment of the balance of payment data has done is not material -- there is no change in the net balance of payment and foreign exchange reserve scenario -- but psychological: it raises questions on the veracity of all data provided by the government.

If the export data was inflated, what about the other components of the economy? What about the reported progress on poverty alleviation and remarkable gains made in social development indicators?

All the achievements made over the past decade will be called into question -- all that glitters was most likely not gold.

Acknowledgement is the first step to recovery. Now that the government has admitted its mistake, it must call for re-computation of all official records connected to export data.

At the very least, the past GDP figures must be reset. Other than the lost credibility, it will bring another positive: Bangladesh's tax-GDP ratio, which has long been among the lowest in the world and often touted as an Achilles heel of the economy, would most definitely improve to a decent number.

There are other gains to be made with the resetting of the GDP figure, which would entail a massive swallowing of pride for the current government.

A sizeable portion of Bangladesh's sovereign debt portfolio is non-concessionary due to its reported GDP figure. Interest payments on those loans are progressively turning out to be an albatross around the government's neck.

Things can only look up from here onwards if the government takes the episode as a sobering lesson.

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