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Does Biden have a path to victory as swing state polls remain low?

Daily Mail Online 2 days ago

Polling after Joe Biden's debate fumbled are showing a decrease in support for the president's reelection.

Biden's campaign has brushed off post-debate polls and claimed any dip is the result of 'overblown media narrative.'

But for the first time this election cycle, former President Donald Trump has now pulled ahead in liberal state New Hampshire that has not voted for a Republican candidate for president in more than two decades.

Following the debate, a chorus of Democrats called for Biden, 81, to step out of his reelection race and allow a younger candidate to come forward and lead the party to November.

The latest poll conducted among 1,764 New Hampshire voters on June 28 and 29 – the two days following the debate in Atlanta, Georgia – put Trump two points ahead of Biden.

A New Hampshire poll taken post-debate shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden for the first time in the last year
A New Hampshire poll taken post-debate shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden for the first time in the last year

Although just slightly within the St. Anselm College survey's 2.3 percent margin of error, it is the first time the former president is ahead of Biden in this polling.

A year prior in June 2023, Biden was ahead of Trump by 9 points – 49 percent to 40 percent. And in December 2023 the incumbent president was ahead by 10 percent – 49 percent to 39 percent.

The poll is even more shocking considering Biden won New Hampshire by 7.3 percent and the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years when it went for George W. Bush in 2000.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the top independent candidate in this race, received 4 percent of the vote in the poll released Monday.

Biden had a raspy voice at the debate, which his campaign contributed to a cold, and many times was mumbling and hard to understand.

'I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either,' Trump said in a response to Biden's comments about 12 minutes into the head-to-head.

Another survey was released by USA Today/Suffolk University on Tuesday and showed Trump edging ahead of Biden 41 percent to 38 percent. This narrow advantage is compared to the tie at 37 percent the two had in the same polling taken in May – before the debate.

Biden stumbled through the debate and his performance led to immediate calls for him to step down and allow a different candidate to emerge as the Democratic nominee in 2024
Biden stumbled through the debate and his performance led to immediate calls for him to step down and allow a different candidate to emerge as the Democratic nominee in 2024

Even before polls were coming out showing a dire message to Biden after he stumbled through the CNN debate in Atlanta, his campaign was downplaying any dip.

'On every metric that matters, data shows it did nothing to change the American people's perception, our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Donald Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago and failed to expand his appeal beyond his MAGA base,' Biden's campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon wrote.

She added: 'If we do see changes in polling in the coming weeks, it will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls.'

A CNN flash poll released just after the showdown on Thursday, June 27 showed 67 percent of watchers felt Trump had a better performance compared to the 33 percent who said Biden showed up better.

In 2020, viewers felt Biden outperformed Trump in both of their presidential debates.

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