In the run-up to the 2022 general elections, former president Uhuru Kenyatta lived up to his handshake bromance and threw his lot with Raila Odinga’s Azimio One Kenya Coalition. This was considered very uncharacteristic given that he had a deputy who was also gunning for the same seat.

However, it was only surprising because ordinarily Kenyans have selective amnesia. Never in the history of this country has a retiring president supported his deputy to succeed him. President Daniel Moi might have only been lucky because his boss, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, died in office.

The second is the current holder of the office, William Ruto, who faced not only hostility but all manner of obstacles from his political partner of convenience and boss. The two had been joined by the fate of the post-election violence judicial consequences at the ICC. While Raila was on his own a formidable candidate, the support from the incumbent president was wrought with organisational complications.

Having shared the government with his deputy almost at half ratio, Uhuru could not bulldoze the entire government to be at the disposal of his preferred candidate. Neither could he summon the loyalty of their shared support base to rally behind Azimio.

It is now clear that Ruto, being the shrewd political operative that he is, had control of the neck and crane of the civil service. He only shared the top echelons of government with Uhuru. The other challenge that Uhuru had was how to secure his legacy as statesman and therefore was forced to play the gentleman. The combination of these challenges compelled the duo of Raila and Uhuru to resort to the old network of the second liberation movement of the famed young turks.

When Kenya slid into one party dictatorship in the façade of national unity, it occasioned a natural consequence of dissidence. Initially the opposition was loud and open in their operations with politics taking the route and shape of the global socialist east and capitalist west. However, the events of the 1969 Kisumu massacre stopped any pretenses at political pluralism.

The opposition party, Kenya Peoples Union, was banned and its leaders including Jaramogi Oginga Odinga detained while others imprisoned. Draconian laws were enacted ostensibly to promote public order but in reality they were to enable the president exercise unrestricted powers by applying martial law at will. This forced alternative political and social voices to operate underground and clandestine activities like university debates.

While these acts of resistance made the regime more repressive, it also emboldened the activists and enticed many more to join voluntarily. The majority of those who were easily persuaded were the academia as lecturers and students. Their ideology was pro people and therefore considered socialist. Later, during the reign of president Moi, the civil society became vibrant and its leadership gleefully joined with the leftist forces.

The collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1990 accelerated the push for openness in local politics in African countries. With the material and moral support from the west, the socialists transformed themselves and coalesced around pro-democracy movement. Transparency and accountability became the catch phrases in clarion calls for an end to totalitarian rule.

At the helm of the pro-democracy movement leadership were the old guards who had fallen out with their colleagues. These were the independence comrades who had differed soon after uhuru on account of policy and ideology.

The prominent faces behind this first line were Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Masinde Muliro, Martin Shikuku, Achieng’ Oneko, Ahmed Bamahriz, Bildad Kagia, Munyua Waiyaki and George Nthenge. They were joined by those who fell out with Moi because of blatant rigging of the infamous but unique Mlolongo system of voting.

These were Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia, Waruru Kanja, George Anyona, Lawrence Sifuna, Koigi Wamwere among others. There existed the equivalent of the Politburo comprising academicians of the ilk of Professors Ouma Muga, Oyugi Akong’o, Mukaru Ng’ang’a, Kariuki Ngotho, Anyang’ Nyong’o, Atieno Odhiambo, Maina Kinyatta et al.

Parallel to this was the rapid response unit acting as the quick think tank and christened the Young Turks. It included Raila Odinga, Gitobu Imanyara, Kiraitu Murungi, Martha Karua, James Orengo, Otieno Maonyango, Wanyiri Kihoro, Oki Ooko Ombaka, Paul Muite, Kijana Wamalwa, Otieno Kajuang’, Njeru Kathangu, Pius Nyamora and Njehu Gatabaki to mention but a few.

This was the pragmatic wing of the movement and very effective in the implementation of the movement’s activities. They were dyed in the wool socialists in character and practiced communist tactics in operations. In reality they were the real thorn in president Moi’s political flesh. While they were the real force behind the movement, they felt overshadowed by the founding fathers of the nation and burdened by the crossovers of the Moi regime. At the very least they tolerated the tedious open ended arguments of the academics for their value in policy development.

The young turks were acutely aware that the political reorganisation that Kenya required could not be achieved by the top leadership of the liberation movement. The top was conflicted by the pervading feeling of betrayal by their comrades and therefore had a sense of entitlement through compensation by being given the leadership mantle in appreciation.

It was also not cohesive enough in thought and vision since it included latter day converts who had been insiders of the repressive Moi regime. The group soon found themselves at the helm of the movement by way of the natural attrition that occurred at the apex of the leadership.

Muliro died just before the general elections, Jaramogi passed on soon after losing resoundingly to Moi and assuming the role of leader of official opposition. Matiba’s health condition was deteriorating at an alarming rate. Nthenge and Bamahriz could not sustain the onslaught of state machinations against the opposition and Anyona found himself alone and lonely in parliament.

The team now had the grand opportunity to prepare well in advance and dislodge KANU and Moi at the 1997 general elections. Unfortunately, that opportunity was greatly compromised by the vagaries and realities of the Kenyan politics. The events immediate to the 1992 general elections had badly exposed the soft underbelly of the nation’s unitary state.

The fidelity to tribal affiliations and mobilisation became too alluring for the opposition leaders. At the hour of reckoning, the FORD behemoth disintegrated into tribal fiefdoms. Only FORD-Kenya maintained some semblance of national outlook at the national leadership level but similarly and disappointingly dismal at the grassroots levels.

It had somehow retained the bulk of the young turks. Within one year, the national leadership of FORD-Kenya had all but retreated to their respective tribal conclaves. However, their individual resolve and desire to capture the ultimate political power remained unbowed.

Having fallen prey to local political dynamics and gone their separate ways, Raila and Wamalwa vied for the presidency on separate political parties in 1997. Paul Muite cleverly formed Safin and got Dr Richard Leakey as its candidate. In the same year Nyong’o and Orengo toyed with the gender agenda experiment. They rallied the civil society and presented Charity Ngilu as the compromise and a uniting candidate for the nation.

They all once again flopped at the feet of the self-declared professor of Kenyan politics, president Moi who romped home for his second and final term. Across the divide, they shared the same vision albeit under the weight of the tribal jingoism. The dissolution of National Development Party by Raila to join KANU as its Secretary General jolted the remaining opposition leaders to form a united alliance. Then by stroke of luck, Moi single handedly nominated Uhuru Kenyatta as New KANU’s presidential candidate.

The resultant implosion of the ruling party was unexpected and unprecedented in history. Raila rallied the departing troops to join with the NAK under Kibaki. All the young turks found themselves together once again except now with the KANU diehards and latter day converts led by Mwai Kibaki as presidential candidate. They thus found themselves in government but their tribal baggage in tandem with their respective individual unbridled ambitions soon conspired against their unity of purpose.

Their greed almost tore the country apart in the 2007 post-election violence. But this was also a blessing in disguise since they once again found themselves in the resultant coalition government. Their best chance as the second liberation movement came as they united to give the country the long fought for the 2010 Constitution. It was expected that they would unite behind Raila who was now clearly ahead of the pack as the leading presidential candidate and serving prime minster.

This was never to be as the ICC served to polarise the country further and united the two most populous ethnic communities of Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Instead of uniting and presenting a national agenda, fear and greed made them succumb to their respective tribal alliances buttressed by parochial and primitive capitalist interests. It therefore became so easy for the generation behind them to pass through and install Uhuru Kenyatta as the fourth president of the republic.

Once the electoral victory of Uhuru was confirmed by non-other than a comrade in arms, Chief Justice Willy Mutunga, the die was cast for the movement. Their time was nigh but they still hang on the slimmest of hopes. Winning against Uhuru in 2017 while in office was a gigantic and herculean task. Being a deft political operative, Raila tactfully avoided the repeat presidential election that resulted from the Supreme Court nullification of the results. Raila would later get into an alliance with president Uhuru Kenyatta christened Brotherly Hand-Shake.

Details of this handshake deal have never been divulged in full. But what is today not in doubt is the government’s support to Raila at the 2022 presidential elections. In desperate acts of reciprocity, Uhuru reached out to Raila’s erstwhile comrades in the second liberation movement to lend hand. Martha Karua replaced Kalonzo Musyoka as the running mate to Raila. Kiraitu Murungi risked his gubernatorial reelection to join Raila.

Gitobu Imanyara, Wanyiri Kihoro, Paul Muite and all else crawled from the woodworks to campaign for their comrade but they failed to bring in the required oomph for the process. Almost all of the senior political leaders from the movement who supported the Azimio cause outside ODM strongholds got scattered to the four winds. It is imperative to note that at this election, the movement and Raila had lost the third and last generation of the movement.

This cadre was the most vibrant and intellectually enthused and comprised mostly the student leaders of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Miguna Miguna, Wafula Buke, Mwandawiro Mganga, Kabando wa Kabando, Otieno Aluoka, Ababu Namwamba, Moses Oburu, Odhiambo Nyamori, Irungu Kangata, Chris Makokha, Fwmba NC Fwamba, Cyprian Nyamwamu, Kepta Ombati, Mwangi Kiunjuri, Hassan Omar, Churchil Suba and lately FCPA Hezbon Omollo, Ken Obura and Silas Jakakimba.

There were no longer any foot solders with the necessary intellectual throughput, zeal and wherewithal to muddy their hands on behalf of Baba and the movement. The succession of Uhuru by his deputy Dr. Ruto has therefore effectively brought to a halt the socialist leaning movement and firmly railroaded the country on the capitalist path. Raila’s role in the successes and eventual failure of the movement to capture the ultimate political power remains a subject of historical debate.

Political and public policy analyst