Violent protests have become a powerful form of political expression in recent years, but their long-term social and economic impacts are often overlooked.

The recent tax protests in Kenya are a striking example of how public dissent can escalate into widespread chaos, leav­ing lasting wounds on society and the economy.

The Kenyan Tax Protests: From Protest To Car­nage

The recently proposed tax hike in Kenya has sparked widespread protests that quickly turned violent.

What started as peaceful demonstra­tions and a call to recall the parliamen­tary bill resulted in widespread chaos, including looting, damage to infrastruc­ture, and loss of life.

The economic impact was immediate and significant, with Nairobi’s Central Business District becoming deserted as businesses closed and were looted and destroyed in response to the violence.

The destruction of property caused substantial financial losses, compound­ing the challenges faced by an already fragile economy.

Moreover, the disruption led to a de­cline in investor confidence and a down­turn in the vital tourism sector.

The long-term effects remain unclear, but the immediate aftermath highlights the stark consequences of violent pro­tests on Kenya’s economy.

Parallels In Another African Country, NIGERIA: The EndSARS Protests

Nigeria’s End SARS protests in 2020 echo the events in Kenya, highlighting similar socio-economic consequences.

Initially a movement against police brutality which denied other non-pro­testing citizens the use of social and transport infrastructure, the protests later escalated into violent clashes with security forces, resulting in widespread destruction.

Government buildings, private busi­nesses, and public infrastructure were not spared. For instance, public trans­portation infrastructure and buses were burnt leading to a transportation crisis in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, when Nigeria finally removed expensive fuel subsidies four years later.

The negative economic impact was substantial. According to estimates, the Nigerian economy lost about $1.5 billion in the first two weeks of the protests alone.

The destruction of property led to job losses, further compounding the economic hardships faced by many Ni­gerians and worsening whatever social situations existed before the protests.

Moreover, the violence and instabili­ty deterred foreign investment for years, with businesses reconsidering their plans in a country perceived as unstable.

The Western Experience: Ruin in USA, France, Canada and Spain… Lives lost; Billions of Dollars in destruction

Advanced democracies and Western countries are not immune, either, to the socio-economic fallout of when protests turn violent.

The United States, for example, expe­rienced significant unrest following the death of George Floyd in 2020. Protests across major cities often turned violent, resulting in extensive property damage and, tragically, loss of life.

Multiple deaths were recorded, both among protesters and law enforcement officers, underscoring the deadly poten­tial of such unrest.

The costs of rebuilding were im­mense, with insurance claims exceeding $2 billion, making it the most expensive civil unrest in U.S. history.

Similarly, protests in France, notably the Yellow Vest movement, led to wide­spread damage to public and private property.

The economic disruption was felt across various sectors, from retail to tour­ism, with the government facing billions in reconstruction costs. The protests also resulted in several deaths, highlighting the severe human cost of violent dissent.

In Spain, the 2017 Catalonia indepen­dence referendum sparked widespread protests that often turned violent.

The clashes between protesters and police not only resulted in physical in­juries and damage to property, but also caused significant economic disruptions.

The uncertainty surrounding the region’s political future led to a flight of businesses, with many companies relo­cating their headquarters out of Catalo­nia to avoid instability.

The tourism sector, a major contrib­utor to Catalonia’s economy is still suf­fering.

The images of violent confrontations broadcast worldwide led to a decline in tourist arrivals, affecting hotels, restau­rants, and other businesses reliant on tourism.

The broader Spanish economy felt the ripple effects, highlighting how regional unrest can have national implications.

In early 2022, Canada’s “Freedom Con­voy” protests against COVID-19 vaccine mandates culminated in a blockade of critical border crossings, including the Ambassador Bridge, a vital trade artery between the U.S. and Canada.

The blockade caused significant eco­nomic disruption, halting the flow of goods and costing millions of dollars in trade losses each day.

Manufacturing industries on both sides of the border suffered, with auto plants forced to shut down due to parts shortages.

The economic impact was swift and severe, highlighting the vulnerability of supply chains to such disruptions.

The blockade underscored the broad­er risks to economic stability when pro­tests target critical infrastructure and the government had to employ the use of force to quell the protests leading to several arrests, and blocking of accounts of many who took part in, or funded – actively and passively, the protests even months after.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded during the Canadian protests, but the economic and social strain was consid­erable.

The Hong Kong Protests: A City In Turmoil And Loss Of Regional Economic Status

Hong Kong’s pro-democracy pro­tests in 2019-2020 present another vivid example. Initially sparked by an extra­dition bill, the protests escalated into a broader movement against perceived erosion of freedoms. The protests fre­quently turned violent, with clashes between protesters and police causing widespread disruption.

Hong Kong’s economy, already under pressure from global trade tensions, took a significant hit. Retail sales plummet­ed, with major shopping districts seeing sharp declines in foot traffic.

The tourism sector, a cornerstone of Hong Kong’s economy, faced a steep drop in visitors. Airlines reported re­duced flight bookings, and hotels saw occupancy rates fall dramatically.

The long-term damage to Hong Kong’s reputation as a stable financial hub cannot be overstated.

Businesses and investors grew wary of the continued unrest, leading to capi­tal flight and a reconsideration of Hong Kong as a base for regional operations.

The Trump Coup Attempt: Democracy Under Siege Reminiscent Of Similar Protests

The January 6th, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump marked a dark day for American democracy.

No one believes such could happen in the United States of America of all places.

The violent attempt to overturn the results of a democratic election not only led to loss of life and extensive property damage but also struck at the very heart of democratic principles. Five deaths were directly linked to the events of that day, including both protesters and law enforcement personnel.

The economic impact, though sec­ondary to the political crisis, included millions in damages and heightened security costs – all still borne by the American people.

This incident highlights the dangers of using protests to attempt a change in government through unconstitutional means.

The attempt to force a change in a democratically elected government un­dermines the rule of law and the tenets of democracy, setting a dangerous prec­edent for future unrest.

Protests Gone Wrong: The Hidden Costs

The economic damage and loss of lives from violent protests is just the tip of the iceberg. The deeper, more in­sidious costs lie in the erosion of social cohesion and trust.

In Kenya, Nigeria, and other affect­ed countries, the aftermath of such pro­tests has left communities divided, with deep-seated grievances often leading to further instability.

Moreover, the focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure after the protests often overshadows the need to address the underlying issues that led to the pro­tests.

Governments end up having to di­vert funds from critical social programs to repair damaged property and infra­structure, putting further stress on the people and exacerbating socio-economic inequalities and perpetuating a cycle of unrest.

The Need For Government Interven­tion

While the right to protest is a funda­mental democratic principle, the man­ner in which dissent is expressed can have profound implications.

In cases where protests devolve into violence, it becomes necessary for gov­ernments to step in with force to restore order. The use of force, though often con­troversial, is sometimes crucial to pre­vent further destruction and to protect lives and property.

No responsible government can stand by while nefarious elements exploit le­gitimate protests to destabilise a coun­try. Such elements often aim to force a change in government through uncon­stitutional means, undermining the very fabric of democracy.

Governments must act decisively to ensure that the rule of law is upheld, and that the democratic process is pro­tected. Allowing violent protests to go unchecked risks setting a dangerous precedent where force becomes a means to achieve political ends.

What Is The Way Forward?

While the right to protest is essential, citizens must also bear the responsibility of ensuring that their actions do not lead to violence and destruction. Protests that are increasingly more often hijacked by nefarious elements seeking to destabilise governments through unconstitutional means only serve to undermine the legit­imate grievances of the populace.

On the other hand, constructive dia­logue between governments and citizens remains crucial. Addressing the root causes of discontent through reform and engagement can prevent the escalation of tensions but citizens must also know when to rein in their protests.

A government elected by the en­tire population should not be removed through the back door by elements who choose not to use the polls to exercise their rights. Governments must however, be proactive in responding to the needs of their people, and citizens must engage in peaceful and responsible advocacy.

As we reflect on the lessons from re­cent history, it is clear that the true cost of violent protests extends far beyond the immediate scenes of destruction. It is a cost borne by society as a whole, with repercussions that can last for genera­tions – a one step forward, many steps backwards scenario. Through responsi­ble protest and effective governance, the socio-economic fabric of society can be preserved and strengthened, ensuring a stable and prosperous future for all.