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Sir Keir Starmer wants to boot John Swinney out of office as he faces pressure to deliver for Scotland, expert says

thescottishsun.co.uk 2024/10/6

IT was always a two-way deal – if Scotland delivered for Keir Starmer, then Starmer would in turn have to deliver for Scotland. The first part of that arrangement has been kept.

In fact, it was kept with knobs on. Last Thursday, Scots sent 37 Labour MPs to Westminster, up from just one at the previous general election.

Sir Keir Starmer wants to boot John Swinney out of office, according to Chris Deerin
Sir Keir Starmer wants to boot John Swinney out of office, according to Chris Deerin
Mr Deerin is the director of the think-tank Reform Scotland
Mr Deerin is the director of the think-tank Reform Scotland
SNP leader John Swinney was left troubled by the General Election result
SNP leader John Swinney was left troubled by the General Election result
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour supremo Sir Keir enjoyed a successful election
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour supremo Sir Keir enjoyed a successful election

Labour’s share of the vote north of the border rose by 17 points on 2019, while in England it only shifted by half a point.

The Nats were vanquished and humiliated, keeping only nine seats as they were kicked out of the central belt entirely. Independence was banished from the agenda, at least for the foreseeable future. Scotland wanted a Labour government, and it is now watching and waiting.

There are some promising early signs. Starmer’s speech on the steps of Downing Street, as the saltires waved beside the union flags, was humble and serious – there was a Presbyterian air to the way he talked of “service” and of the broad moral purpose of his government. I suspect he will prove better suited to the complex, draining life of a PM than he was to the feral nastiness of an election campaign.

The background of his Cabinet members might chime with the Scottish belief in fairness and social mobility – 84 per cent of the new ministers attended state schools, a far cry from the privileged elite that populated the upper ranks of recent Tory administrations.

So far, so good, then. But nowhere near enough. The outcome of the election showed not just that Scottish voters wanted Starmer in Number 10, but that they are thinking seriously about putting Anas Sarwar into Bute House at the Holyrood election in 2026. That’s not yet a done deal - much will depend on what the Prime Minister does over the next 18 months or so.

I believe Starmer is serious about Scotland. He spent more time up here during the campaign, and even before it, than any of his predecessors. He understands the importance of Scotland to Labour, psychologically, historically, and in delivering his present-day landslide. He believes in the Union, but knows that it hasn’t been working well enough, which is why 45 per cent still support the idea of independence.

And I’m sure he knows that while the SNP is down, it’s not out. If his government fails to tackle Scottish disaffection with the UK, the Nats will be back, pointing out that not even Labour could make things work.

That’s one reason Starmer was in Edinburgh today, only three days after his victory, to meet First Minister John Swinney. I care, so here I am, was the message - Scotland is “back at the beating heart of everything we do”. The leaders promised to work together to improve relations between Holyrood and Westminster, after the confrontational relationship between the SNP and the Conservatives.

I suspect they’ll get on well enough at a personal level – both are decent, relatively straightforward, and have no time for the flash and self-promotion of Boris-style politics. Actually, they’re both a bit dull, in public at least.

But regardless of the smiles outside Bute House, and the promises of closer collaboration, the good times can’t last.

The reason for this is that the campaign for Holyrood 2026 has already begun. Starmer might shake Swinney’s hand, but what he really wants to do is boot his backside out of office. And Swinney needs to stop Labour if he is to stay in power. The politicking and the game-playing, the blaming and the denouncing, will be back with us soon.

Of course, the main pressure is on Sarwar. He has to repeat Thursday’s success, but this time at the Scottish Parliament. Labour will need big, chunky policies to fix our broken NHS, restore our ailing schools, and sort out our justice and transport systems. There’s a lot of work to be done.

But Sarwar will also need his colleagues in London to give him a fair wind. An unpopular Westminster Labour government in 2026 would do him no favours, as both he and the Prime Minister have publicly admitted.

Starmer has promised to set up GB Energy to speed up the drive towards net zero, and to headquarter it in Scotland. Ian Murray, the new Scottish Secretary, will have a bit of money to spend on special projects.

Beyond Murray, however, there are no Scottish MPs in the Cabinet – no equivalents of Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, Alistair Darling or George Robertson. I’m sure that will change in time, but the front bench is very, very English, as it was under the Tories. Hardly the beating heart. That could matter.

And will Starmer loosen the apron strings to allow MSPs to get to grips with some of the biggest issues facing Scotland?

The obvious area where he could do so is immigration. Unlike in England, every mainstream Scottish party believes more immigrants can help address our low growth, ageing population and shrinking workforce. A separate Scottish visa could be just the ticket, but that would require a big rethink in Whitehall. Holyrood’s tax powers are narrow and unbalanced.

So, over to you, Prime Minister. Time to keep your side of the deal.

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