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Donald Trump's second term won't be the 'catastrophe' Democrats expect as it looks set to hold grip on power in House of Reps

skynews.com.au 2024/7/22

A Donald Trump election victory does not have be taken through gritted teeth as forces beyond his control look set to hold his grand plans in check, writes Nicholas Sheppard. 

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In an online discourse of maximised stakes and catastrophising, a simple premise has not been expressed anywhere in the media: a second Trump term might not actually be that dramatic or change much about US society.

The reason is a prospective legislative handbrake.

Every newly elected US President in the last thirty years has arrived in office with both the Senate and the House: Clinton in the 90s; George W. Bush, with a few asterisks and settling; Obama, who for a brief spell when he was elected even enjoyed a super-majority of sixty Democratic senators; then Trump.

And finally, after runoff Senate elections in Georgia, Joe Biden managed to scrape together fifty senators with the Vice-President as the deciding vote.

Though they usually lose one or both in the first mid-term election, they have a two-year legislative window at the start of their tenure to enact the fundamentals of their agenda.

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Through an arcane and technical procedure known as reconciliation, the big legislative items, so long as they fall under the criteria of being budget related, can pass with a simple majority of fifty, avoiding the sixty-vote threshold whereby most of everything gets filibustered.

The Democrats are likely to lose the Senate this cycle, though their candidates are acquitting themselves better than initially assumed.

And there are reasonable odds, with Sherrod Brown performing well in Ohio, and Jon Tester in Montana running a competitive campaign, they might make it back to fifty, which would mean - in the event of a Biden second term - a functioning majority without either Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema confounding and exasperating everyone.

But the more interesting story is the House, where the Democrats, though tied in the polls, are probably better placed to win, due to a superior ground game we have seen over several election cycles, the prevalence of local issues, the absolute clown show of the current Republican House, and local Democratic candidates down ballot faring more favourably than the President.

Therefore, were Trump to win, he would likely begin his second term where he left off with the last - as a lame duck, held severely in check by a unified and stringently opposed House.

In this regard, if liberals are having conniptions about the future, the fate of a whole herd of legislative sacred cows, Trump running roughshod over all areas of policy and relying on elected enablers in Washington to allow him to accrue certain powers, then their worries might be somewhat unfounded.

There would be: no threat to the Affordable Care Act; no border wall (except for perhaps another few miles through various maneuverers); partially compromised and begrudged fiscal policy; and while aging conservative Supreme Court judges might be swapped out, further entrenching the six-three conservative balance, three comparatively young and robust liberal Supreme Court justices aren’t likely to be going anywhere.

A Donald Trump election win does not have be taken through gritted teeth as a hostile House looks set to hold his grand plans in check, writes Nicholas Sheppard. Picture: Getty
A Donald Trump election win does not have be taken through gritted teeth as a hostile House looks set to hold his grand plans in check, writes Nicholas Sheppard. Picture: Getty

On election eve, as liberal folk follow the khaki-clad analysis of Steve Kornacki with gnashing of teeth and handkerchief wringing with a sense of staring into the abyss, in terms of the fundamentals actually changing, it mightn’t be so severe.

There would in fact be a disconnect that would make Trump, for all his triumphalism, look somewhat hamstrung and frustrated.

While he may pardon certain reprobates, or take, and test certain liberties, he would be unable to actually have much sway over society with fundamental legislation.

Turning to executive action early on and trying to expand its scope would heighten this disconnect.

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And while his base would encourage this approach: They’re trying to undermine the will of the people which was for me to act, therefore I have no recourse - even with a sympathetic Supreme Court, he won’t exactly be able to move mountains.

A second Trump term would have to be endured through gritted teeth by many on the left - but it is worth considering that all their built-up dread, angst, and catastrophising might be just that and in fact a fairly likely outcome this November,

It would be far from as gruelling as liberals envisage and might turn out to be something more like business as usual.

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