The South African Weather Service has extended its long-range forecast for dryer and warmer weather conditions across most of the country to November. If this holds true, it could bode ill for the planting season for early summer crops such as the staple maize.

While El Niño has faded, most of South Africa is still expected to remain relatively dry and warm into spring and early summer.

"The South African Weather Service (Saws) multimodel rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS), Aug-Sep-Oct (ASO) and Sep-Oct-Nov (SON)," the weather service said in its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead.

"Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period."

If this forecast is realised, it could bode ill for the planting season for key summer crops such as maize. The staple white maize crop is seen 25% lower this year because of a searing drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern which could bring domestic food inflation, which has been slowing, back on the boil.

While El Niño, caused by a warming of surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, often triggers drought in southern Africa, its polar opposite, La Niña - which typically brings good rains to this region - may soon replace it.

Currently the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso), which describes these patterns, is in neutral state between the two extremes.

But Saws cautioned that nothing is set...