By Daniel Matsanza
After the recent countrywide demonstrations where the young people protested against the excesses of William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration, the question on the minds of many is whether he can win his reelection bid come 2027.
Already, Ruto to rebrand himself has reached out to former president Uhuru Kenyatta, ODM leader Raila Odinga with talk of dissolving the cabinet and forming of a government of national unity. Ruto told the duo that if Kenya burns, they will also be blamed. The same story he told church leaders when he met them recently.
Many say the finance Bill 2024 protests that cost lives of innocent and unarmed civilians were a protest vote in Ruto’s leadership whether he changes his style of leadership or not.
Now, talk is rife that if Ruto can subject Kenyans to high taxes during his first term, then what will happen if he is reelected in 2027? The fear of Ruto rigging elections or buying voters come 2027 is now out of Kenyans. To them, Ruto is their number one enemy and they will come to vote in numbers. Deputy president Rigatho Gachagua seems to be aware of it, and that is why he is charting his own political way and asking when the rain started beating Kenya Kwanza. As things stand, 2027 will be Kenyans against one man, Ruto and his allies.
Many believe since he will not be seeking reelection in the event he wins 2027, he will show Kenyans his worst.
That 2027 will be an uphill task was well manifested in the entire country where protestors chanted Ruto Must Go!
To complicate the matter for Ruto is now the belief among his 2022 support bloc that he took them for granted, he is a liar and that they voted for him to benefit members of his family and close allies.
It is imperative to note that sometimes back while being interviewed on his foreign trips, he quipped at one stage his reelection was not guaranteed after the controversial housing levy bill and that if elections were called then, he would not have won.
In March, Ruto handed a major win in his push to entrench the controversial affordable housing Bill 2023 after Kenya Kwanza senators defeated amendments proposed by the opposition.
Remember, speaking at the Africa CEO Forum in Rwanda, Ruto said that he was not elected to get reelected, but to transform the country. Sources say Ruto rating is now at 15pc.
It is now emerging that Ruto has lost two major voting blocs that is the Mt Kenya the youth mostly under the banner Gen Zs.
How he is going to win the 2027 polls without the said vote blocs is a tall order.
The youthful vote bloc is gone – thanks to the deaths witnessed during the protests across the country.
Apart from Ruto engaging the youth as intended, the elephant in the room is he cannot resurrect the dead and their ghosts will continue to haunt him even beyond 2027.
Further, those who were shot and admitted to several hospitals nursing injuries and their friends and families will be his headache 2027.
Having lost the said voting blocs with UDA party rocked by infighting, Ruto must be having sleepless nights as 2027 approaches.
Ruto’s infighting with his deputy is likely to cost him dearly. Moreso if Gachagua decides to run for presidency in 2027 and defects with his foot soldiers, the die will have been cast.
The unfolding political supremacy battle within Kenya Kwanza in the Mt Kenya region has lifted the lid on the ongoing succession politics, amid talk of a powerful hidden hand keen on managing the region’s political future.
However, there is more than meets the eye in the political tussle between Gachagua and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. Nyoro has of late gone quite.
That is why the 2027 voting pattern will be a protest vote against Ruto. and even if he tries to manipulate the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to have votes in his favour, that will continue to cost him.
Signals are on that a number of Ruto allies for political survival, mainly in Mt Kenya, have started to desert him.
Mt Kenya region witnessed demonstrations in Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyahururu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia. These are the regions which when Azimio la One Kenya Alliance called demonstration fields, last year gave them a wide berth.
Protestors led by opposition leaders took to the streets to decry the end of subsidies and rising taxes. The believe 2022 presidential election was rigged against Raila, furthering mistrust in the current government.
To complicate the matter, is the talk that most of those who died in last week’s protests were from Mt Kenya region.
Analysts say Ruto gameplan to replace the Mt Kenya vote bloc with that of Luhyas, Luos, Kisiis, Somalis and other tribes from the coastal region is likely to hit a snag.
Already, Ruto foot soldiers from the said regions who voted ‘yes’ for the finance Bill 2024 are marked politicians as they are now very unpopular on the ground.
Ruto’s plan to pick prime cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate 2027 seems to be counterproductive as Mudavadi is seen as spineless in Kenyan politics.
Luhya factor 2027 will matter but going by the way the ‘Tawe’ movement, a movement started by Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya, among other like-minded politicians, has been received in the region well, Ruto has to go back to the drawing board.
The same is in Kisii and the coastal region which witnessed the recent demonstrations.
What will also cost Ruto is the way Eldoret in Uasin Gishu county which is his home town bastion experienced demonstrations with UDA symbol being brought down in Eldoret and Kericho towns.
Ruto allies in Kalenjinland are heavily costing him due to their new found fortunes and the possibility is voter apathy that will be characterised with low turn-out during the polls.
This is contrary to the high voter turnout that will be witnessed in other regions in the name of voting Ruto out.
Analysts, say Ruto’s survival 2027 will happen if the opposition goes to the polls divided.
Previously, there has been talk that Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is being touted as the favourite 2027 opposition flag-bearer, although he is also spineless in local politics.
Take is also that Raila is contemplating to quit the African Union chairman go and make a grant political comeback on the local scene as he is poised to be one term president due to his advancing age.
There is also a group of politicians pushing for former Interior cabinet secretary Fred Matiang’i and his ilk to go for the top seat in 2027, and remove Ruto from the seat.