Weekly Market Update for July 2nd, 2024: Grills are heating up nationwide, and so is demand for beef
As grilling season heats up, so does the demand for all types of animal proteins, including beef. This surge in demand also affects the need for reefer equipment in the truckload sector. The USDA produces several reports that can be used to gauge truckload demand for temperature-controlled freight directly, providing a clear context for stakeholders to understand the industry’s current state.
The first is the amount of inventory in cold storage. Released on May 24, the USDA’s monthly Cold Storage Report estimates that total commodities were 8,614 billion pounds, up 1% year-over-year (y/y) and down 1% sequentially. Breaking down the protein total, frozen red meat (11% of total storage volume) was up 4% m/m but down 9% y/y, while frozen poultry (13%) was up 1% m/m and down 5% y/y. Frozen vegetables, the largest frozen storage commodity (20%), were down 6% m/m and 2% y/y. Frozen potato volumes (14%) were down 2% sequentially and 3% y/y.
USDA’s monthly Cattle On Feed report estimates that 11.6 million head of cattle were on feed on May 1, up 1% from May 2023. AFBF reports substantial improvements in drought conditions over the last year, especially in parts of the country with high concentrations of cattle, which could result in more cattle being retained for breeding purposes rather than being placed on feed. Regardless of the reason for fewer cattle on feed, the result is the same: fewer cattle available for beef production in the long run.
The ABFB report “concludes that much-needed moisture is helping improve pasture conditions across the country, giving farmers a reason to retain heifers for breeding purposes. While this would be the first step to expanding the U.S. beef herd again, a smaller 2024 calf crop projected by USDA means the first opportunity to expand the cattle inventory will not occur until 2025. Domestic demand for beef is still strong, but tight supplies will continue to drive up grocery store prices through 2025, which will drive down consumer demand for beef, according to USDA forecasts.”
Grilling season and hot dogs
The humble hot dog is in high demand during grilling season. From Memorial Day to Labor Day, Americans typically consume 7 billion hot dogs, or the equivalent of 16,300 refrigerated truckloads, during peak hot dog season. That’s 818 hot dogs consumed every second during that period, according to the National Sausage Hot Dog & Council.