Euractiv has reported growing concerns among diplomats about the prospect of France potentially scaling back its support for NATO, as the far-right National Rally (RN) gains momentum in the country’s elections. The RN’s strong showing in the first round of France’s snap election, securing 33% of the vote compared to President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble bloc at 20%, has raised alarms among NATO allies.

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

The RN, known for its skepticism towards NATO and criticisms of Macron’s foreign policy, particularly regarding military aid to Ukraine, is poised to win significantly in the upcoming second round of the French vote. With projections suggesting the RN could secure up to 280 seats in the National Assembly, even if they do not form the government, they are expected to exert considerable influence.

Unnamed diplomats quoted by Euractiv expressed worries that under new leadership, France might pursue a “soft exit” strategy from NATO by potentially withdrawing from the bloc’s military command. This approach, reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle’s 1966 decision to remove France from NATO’s integrated military structure, could involve reducing France’s participation in joint NATO missions.

Military expert Michel Duclos suggested to Euractiv that such a move could be subtle, with France sending fewer and less senior troops to NATO operations while still maintaining a role within the organization. This shift could impact NATO’s operational dynamics given France’s historical and strategic significance within the alliance.

While Marine Le Pen, the former RN leader, has been critical of Macron’s policies on Ukraine, current leader Jordan Bardella has taken a more moderate stance, indicating that any change in NATO’s role for France would be contingent upon broader geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the ongoing conflict involving Russia and Ukraine.