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Hurricane Beryl 2024 targets Jamaica: Here’s Wednesday’s official forecast track

al.com 2 days ago
Hurricane Beryl was still a Category 4 on Wednesday morning as it headed toward Jamaica, which could get 6 to 9 feet of storm surge. Beryl could eventually end up in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl tracked quickly westward on a path toward Jamaica on Wednesday with 145 mph winds.

And its long-range forecast has those in Texas and the western Gulf Coast watching very closely.

The National Hurricane Center said Beryl could bring “light-threatening winds and storm surge” to Jamaica by midday and will approach the Cayman Islands tonight into Thursday.

Beryl was still a powerful Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday morning. As of 7 a.m. CDT, Hurricane Beryl was located about 125 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and was tracking to the west-northwest at 20 mph.

Beryl peaked as a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds early Tuesday morning but was still a powerful Category 4 on Wednesday. The hurricane center said Beryl could weaken some over the next day or two but will still be a hurricane as it crosses the Caribbean.

The long-range forecast track for Beryl has those in Texas watching very closely. The hurricane center’s official track shows Beryl menacing Jamaica and the Caymans, then crossing the western Caribbean and making another landfall Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early Friday.

Then Beryl could cross the peninsula and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Earlier forecasts had Beryl at tropical storm strength in the Gulf, but the latest forecast suggests Beryl could restrengthen to a hurricane again as it heads toward Mexico’s Gulf Coast.

Its final landfall could come late Sunday or early Monday in northern Mexico, very close to the border with Texas.

The hurricane center continued to caution that there was considerable uncertainty about Beryl’s forecast track. Forecasters said “numerical models showing stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern side.”

The hurricane center’s official forecast is right down the middle of the consensus.

The hurricane center said hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 miles from the center of Beryl.

Forecasters have increased the forecast for storm surge for Jamaica. Now 6 to 9 feet of surge will be possible for the island. The Caymans could see 2 to 4 feet of surge.

Four to 8 inches of rain will be possible in Jamaica, and 2 to 4 inches in the Caymans, the hurricane center said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the south coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

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