The meeting of some northern bigwigs within the past few months has raised suspicion among political observers that the region is spoiling for a fight to wrestle power from President Bola Tinubu, writes OLUFEMI ADEDIRAN

Although the next presidential election is in less than three years, recent political developments are proving to be indications that President Bola Tinubu may face a complex political battle. The current ploy to unseat him is gathering more momentum and this has not gone unnoticed by some political observers,

The road to Tinubu’s re-election is fraught with challenges, particularly from northern factions seeking to reclaim the presidency. The alleged scheming by northern factions to work against Tinubu’s re-election started with the realignment and meetings among notable northern politicians.

The prediction is that these prominent politicians may be forming strategic alliances. These alliances aim to present a united front and a viable alternative to President Tinubu in the 2027 elections.

While some people have described the move by the northerners as too early and selfish, given the fact that former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner served eight years without interruption, others think that Tinubu does not deserve to return as President, having betrayed the North that helped him into power.

Those backing the proposal for the return of power to the North by 2027 based their arguments on the alleged maltreatment of northern politicians on whose support Tinubu rode to power.

Several political figures and groups in the North have expressed dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s administration, citing a range of issues from perceived neglect of northern interests to broader concerns about governance and security. Leading the move against Tinubu’s re-election is a prominent northern socio-cultural and political group, the Northern Elders’ Forum.

A member of the group, Prof. Usman Yusuf, had said the North regretted supporting Tinubu during the 2023 general election, and described the past one year of Tinubu’s administration as nothing but “deception, destitution, and hopelessness”.

“People have lost hope. It pains me to see our people lining up to collect cups of palliatives. Renewed Hope has turned into hopelessness. People have lost hope”, Yusuf said.

Also, the spokesman for NEF, Abdulaziz Sulaiman, was quoted to have said that the North made a mistake in voting Tinubu to the presidency in 2023 and that it was unlikely that they would repeat the same error in 2027.

Sulaiman said the North had learnt from their past “misstep” and would strive to select a candidate who could unite the country and govern in the best interests of all Nigerians.

Another attack on Tinubu’s government from the North came from the North-East Governors’ Forum which accused the Federal Government of neglecting the region in the provision of capital projects.

The forum’s chairman who is also the Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, alleged that road and rail connections between the South-East and North-East had been abandoned. He also bemoaned the blackout in the region.

The northerners, who pride themselves as the powerhouse of Nigeria when it comes to voting, also accused Tinubu of appointing mostly southerners into key government positions.

According to political analysts, the perceived fallout of the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, with Tinubu’s administration is another major reason why the North is angry with Tinubu.

The alleged northern gang-up against Tinubu became more pronounced after the meeting between El-Rufai and the candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party in last year’s presidential election, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and the visit of the former governor of Sokoto state and a serving senator, Aminu Tambuwal, led by a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, to former President Muhammadu Buhari in his Daura country home in Katsina State.

Although, Atiku said he visited Buhari to pay him Sallah homage, the visit has, however, reignited the discourse that Atiku, a foremost and formidable opposition figure in the country, was not relenting in pursuing his presidential ambition and might have reopened his 2027 presidential race.

El-Rufai is yet to openly declare war against Tinubu’s government, but his son, Bashir, in a cryptic message to Tinubu, said, “Nobody is too big to be voted out of office by the people. It will happen and wallahi, nothing will happen. So, forget all this intimidation flying up and down. Let us be patient.”

Bashir, who posted the message on his X (formerly Twitter) handle, added, “Even IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank no go save una that time. Political strategist; that one na for Lagos” (sic).

Commenting on the issue, a professor of Comparative Politics, Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto, T.K. Baba, described the alleged scheming of the North as a wakeup call for Tinubu and his government to buckle up and win back the hearts of the people.

Baba said, “What is happening can positively impact the government. It could strengthen the present government, but negatively, it will distract the government and force the government to abandon governance.

“It may help the government to refocus and strengthen itself to deliver good governance so that its scorecard could be that decent enough for them to reach out to the public and advance its campaign.”

He described the move by the North as “a coalition of oppositions – those who were injured in the movement and those who are in the opposition are now regrouping to see what they can do; this is similar to what the APC did in 2015.

“When you see Kwankwaso with El-Rufai and you see Atiku with Buhari, it is only right to say that something fishy is happening, and what is happening, nobody knows. We have also seen Tambuwal visiting Buhari, but it is too early now to jump to the conclusion that there is scheming for power to return to the North.

“These talks are going on and it all depends on what the government does in the next two years and who remains in the government, who falls out with the government, who gets included into the government. Northern politicians cannot do it alone; no politician from any part of the country can ever do it alone.

“It is not only in the North that this is happening, even politicians from other parts of the country are also thinking of how they can wrestle power in 2027. One of the greatest surprises in the last election was the Labour Party and the Peter Obi movement.

The movement is not dead yet, and he is making a lot of vibes and nerves across the country; he is making a series of comments and also offering his thoughts about how this government is organised and how this government runs itself, what are the shortcomings of this government. That is also something that should also be discussed,” Baba said.

Also giving his thoughts on the issue, Prof. Emmanuel Ojo of the Department of Political Science at the University of Ilorin, said although the move by some northerners for power to return to the North in 2027 was neither illegal nor unconstitutional, “in the interest of national integration and to assuage the feeling of marginalisation by sections of the country, it was better to allow power to be domicile in the South for eight years”.

He said if the North argued that Tinubu was not performing, another candidate from southern extraction should rather be backed instead of calling for power to return to the North.

“To ever contemplate that power should go back to the North will not assist Nigeria’s effort at national integration, neither will it assist Nigeria’s effort at democratic sustenance and eventual consolidation of democracy. So, informal power-sharing should be allowed the way it is.

“If the President from the South is not performing or eventually could not perform, then another political party who might have nominated a candidate from the South can also get it. The North should allow the presidency to be domiciled in the South for a minimum of eight years.

“The North no doubt supported Tinubu, and they even initiated the power shift. It was El-Rufai who mobilised as many as 10 northern governors and they issued a statement that power must go to the South for national integration, and power came to the South. They were sitting governors; they had influence. All those northern elements talking now are spent forces they are not forces to be reckoned with in terms of grassroots politicking.

“Talking on the pages of newspapers, radio and television does not make any impact, and northern Nigeria cannot be mobilised by those that do not have economic power and even political power. Those who referred to themselves as northern elements were not the ones who did it in 2023. It was the northern governors; the likes of El-Rufai and Abdullahi Ganduje who believed that in the interest of the nation, power should move down to the South, and people voted.

“There should be no political fear in terms of the people that are talking in the North, people will always be talking; it is normal, but that talking when assessed politically, how much influence can their comments make? Are they opinion moulders on the streets of Kano, Nassarawa, and Gombe? That is the way it should be”, Ojo said.

Ojo, a former Secretary to Oyo State Government, described the claim by some northerners that Tinubu had marginalised the region as false, insisting that the North still had the highest number of political office holders in Tinubu’s government.

Meanwhile, the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural and political group, Afenifere, and the Arewa Youths Consultative Forum described the ongoing battle for the presidency as too early and a distraction to Tinubu’s government and good governance.

The National Publicity Secretary of Afenifere, Jare Ajayi, said the focus of all Nigerians now should be the revival of the economy, provision of good governance, and end to insecurity.

He said, “Nigeria is presently facing a lot of challenges that require all hands to be on the deck. The present administration is just about one year in office. It inherited a lot of challenges just as some others have cropped up within its one year in office. What ought to be of concern for our politicians should be how to tackle these challenges, ensure that they do not keep occurring and, of course, set the country on the path to sustainable development.”

Speaking on the allegation by the spokesman for NEF, Sulaiman Abdulazeez, that the North is marginalised, Ajayi said the submission could be regarded as a wakeup call on the government to double its efforts in tackling insecurity and enhance the economy across the country.

“There is no doubt that Nigeria is facing a lot of security and economic challenges at the moment. Of course, many of these challenges were inherited from previous administrations. However, the challenges are not peculiar to a particular section of the country. Rather, they could be seen in various forms across the nation,” Ajayi added.

The Afenifere spokesman said that since the problems the country is facing are cut across various zones, it may not be correct or proper to say that a particular section is deliberately targeted for marginalisation.

“Reports of insecurity, inflation, and sundry economic downturns filter out every day from every zone. In that wise, the onus on us is to keep calling the attention of those concerned to the challenges people are facing to get these challenges promptly and properly attended to,” Ajayi said.

In all, analysts believe that Tinubu’s performance in the next three years will be a major determinant of Tinubu’s return to power in 2027.