After sweeping Haryana in 2019 LS polls, BJP got five seats this time against Cong’s five; at Assembly segment level, BJP led in 44 segments out of 90 as compared to Cong’s 42 and its INDIA ally AAP’s four
As the ruling BJP and the principal Opposition Congress begin preparations for the Haryana Assembly polls, slated for October this year, the Lok Sabha results for the state’s 10 seats show that the two rivals are neck-and-neck.
Voting data at the Assembly segment level shows that if the Haryana polls were held today, it would result in a hung House but the Opposition INDIA bloc would come out on top as an alliance.
After sweeping the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s tally fell to five seats this time with the Congress picking up the remaining five seats. In terms of votes, the BJP’s share fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.11% with the Congress rising from 28.51% to 43.67%.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an INDIA bloc member, failed to win from the lone seat (Kurukshetra) it contested in alliance with the Congress as part of their seat-sharing agreement. The AAP however raised its vote share from 0.36% to 3.94% despite contesting just one seat as compared to three last time.
Among the regional parties, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and its breakaway faction led by Dushyant Chautala, Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), didn’t win any seats this time too with vote shares of 1.74% and 0.87%, respectively. In 2019, the parties had secured vote shares of 1.9% and 4.9%, respectively.
At the Assembly segment level – each Lok Sabha constituency contains several Assembly constituencies – the BJP won the most votes in 44 of Haryana’s total 90 Assembly seats. The Congress was not far behind at 42 with the AAP leading in the remaining four seats. The JJP and INLD did not lead in any Assembly segments.
MAP: Haryana Assembly segments
In 2019, the BJP had won every Assembly segment in seven Lok Sabha seats. This time the party managed to sweep the segments in just one Lok Sabha seat – Karnal, where former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar was the winning candidate. Khattar won the seat just months after he was replaced in the state’s top job by OBC leader and former Kurukshetra MP Nayab Singh Saini, with the party thereby hoping to curb anti-incumbency and consolidate the non-Jat and OBC votes across the state.
The Congress, on the other hand, won every Assembly segment in the Rohtak and Sirsa seats. While Deepender Hooda, the son of former CM Bhupinder Hooda and a previous three-time MP, won from Rohtak, the party’s winning candidate in Sirsa was Selja, the former state Congress chief.
Haryana is among the handful of states where there was a seat-sharing agreement between the Congress and the AAP (the parties were unable to strike a deal in Punjab), and coordination on the ground during campaigning. If the INDIA alliance and its Lok Sabha numbers were to hold in the Assembly polls, it would stand a strong chance at forming a government in Haryana later this year.
In the 2019 Assembly polls, the results had thrown up a hung House with no party able to cross the majority mark. The BJP had won 40 seats with 36.49% vote share while the Congress had won 31 seats with 28.08% vote share. The JJP emerged as the kingmaker with its 10 seats from 14.80% vote share – the party formed a post-poll alliance with the BJP to form the government. However, the BJP broke ties with the JJP in March but remained in the government with support from Independents. The INLD had won just one seat with 2.44% vote share and the remaining seven seats were won by Independents.