GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — A new poll shows former President Donald Trump with a four-point lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan about four months out from the presidential election.
In a matchup between Biden and Trump, 49% of people surveyed said they would vote for Trump and 45% for Biden, the EPIC-MRA poll released Saturday morning found.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, the poll shows the race remains tight. The survey was conducted between June 21 and June 26, so it does not reflect the impact — if any — of Thursday’s presidential debate.
Trump has been leading in the race — though by a small margin. Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls conducted the previous week had Trump with a one-point lead in Michigan.
When third-party candidates are figured in, both front-runners lose ground: Trump drops to 41% and Biden to 38%. That scenario narrows the race by one percentage point.
An insight into what’s driving the numbers can be found in the poll’s question about approval ratings: Biden had a 38% favorable rating and Trump 41%. That mirrors the poll results including the third-party candidates.
Biden got a 57% unfavorable rating and Trump 54%. That hearkens back to what has been seen in polling for two years: that many American voters would like another choice of candidate. But with conventions looming and third-party candidates well behind Biden or Trump, the odds of another likely candidate emerging seem slim.
Among the 600 people surveyed by EPIC-MRA, 42% identified as Democrats, 42% as Republicans and 13% as independent. Thirty-two percent were between the ages of 50 and 64, 29% were 65 or older, 21% were aged 35 to 59 and 18% were between 18 and 34. Eighty percent identified as white, 10% as Black, 2% as Latino, and 1% each as Asian and Native American. The remaining 6% identified as of other or multiple races or declined to say.
Michigan’s primary is Aug. 6. The general election is Nov. 5.
Asked how they would cast their ballots this year, 58% said they would go to the polls in person on election day and 33% said they would vote absentee. Only 4% said they would take advantage of the nine days of early in-person voting now required by law in Michigan.