Erik ten Hag and Gareth Southgate have been mentioned together in the same breath rather a lot in the last few months and mostly as opposing forces. The England manager was heavily linked with the Manchester United job when the Dutchman was most under pressure at Old Trafford.

And many believe that Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his INEOS colleagues would have sacked Ten Hag and hired Southgate as his successor had the England boss not insisted on delaying a decision on his future until after Euro 2024.

Once Ten Hag's own future had been resolved and it had been decided he would continue as United manager, the Dutchman took a swipe at Southgate's tactics during England's victory over Serbia, accusing the manager of "gambling with making his team compact and relying on moments".

Given recent events, we can surmise that the two managers are unlikely to invite each other round for dinner any time soon. But there is one thing they can agree on: the greatness of Luke Shaw and how pivotal he is to their respective teams.

After being sidelined for over four months with a hamstring injury, Shaw is poised to finally return to action for England in the Euro 2024 last 16 game against Slovakia, even if only as a substitute. But how much of an impact can the left-back make after so long out, and can he really kickstart England's uninspiring campaign?

Massive difference

Ask any England or United fan to name their most influential player, and Shaw is unlikely to feature very highly. But his importance to both teams has only really come to be appreciated while he has been missing.

Shaw was only able to start 15 games for United last season due to two big injury lay-offs and the difference between when he was on the pitch and when he was unavailable was massive.

In the 12 Premier League games Shaw started in, United won eight, drew once and lost three times. In their 26 matches without the left-back, the Red Devils won 10 times, drew five and lost 11. Their win percentage shrunk from 67% with Shaw to 38% without him.

England seem even more reliant on Shaw than United. They have won all three of the matches he started from January 2023. In the 14 games he has been out, they have won seven, drawn five and lost two, their win-percentage dropping from 100% to 50%.

No real alternative

England and United have both struggled without Shaw because they have had no real alternative. Tyrell Malacia missed the whole of last season due to complications from a knee injury, forcing United to sign Sergio Reguilon as an emergency loan.

The Spaniard was not always fit and the club cancelled his loan in January when Shaw had returned from his hamstring injury, believing Malacia would soon join him. That gamble badly backfired when it became clear that Malacia was not going to recover and when Shaw tore his hamstring at Luton in February.

Sofyan Amrabat, Diogo Dalot and Aaron Wan-Bissaka all had to deputise at left-back over the season, creating more problems. And Ten Hag, who has hailed Shaw as "the best left back in the world", said having no proper left-back was "one of the biggest frustrations" in a season in which his side sustained over 60 separate injuries.

A risk worth taking

Southgate has had similar problems replacing Shaw. He considered Ben Chilwell to be the only real alternative to the United defender and the Chelsea left-back's season effectively ended when he injured his knee in March.

The manager's decision to pick no back-up left-back and snub Tyrick Mitchell could prove to be his biggest mistake of this Euros, unless Shaw can return to full fitness and hit the ground running again.

Southgate is normally averse to risk and he admitted that naming Shaw in his squad was a gamble worth taking. "I think you can take one gamble, and that is a gamble that we’ve got enough evidence to believe can pay off," he explained.

"And also positionally, with what he brings with his experience, the fact he’s a left-footer who can drive forward and give us another attacking option as well, that’s a situation we wanted to explore".

Big game player

It is easy to see why Southgate was willing to take a risk with Shaw. He is England's most experienced player in Germany, being the only surviving member from the squad that went to the 2014 World Cup.

Shaw has been there for the biggest moments too. Although he missed the 2018 World Cup, he played 11 out of 12 matches at Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup. In keeping with his more recent record, England lost just one of those games over 90 minutes.

He has been hugely productive, contributing nine assists as well as three goals in his 31 games for the Three Lions. He scored or set up four of England's 11 goals at the last Euros, including netting in the final against Italy.

There are several explanations for England's unconvincing plod through the group stage in Germany but Shaw's absence seems to be the biggest factor. And it is not unreasonable to suggest that he could make a huge difference when he returns.

Huge upgrade on Trippier

England have looked far too dependent on their right hand side during the tournament and analysis by Sky Sports showed that at Euro 2024 their threat level down the left flank has been 37% of attacks, compared to 41% at the last World Cup, when Shaw started every game and created more chances than any other England player.

While Kieran Trippier has defended well in Germany, he has offered very little threat going forward. The fact he has to cut inside on to his right foot to put in a cross badly slows down England's attacks and makes them much easier to defend against. Phil Foden's tendency to drift inside has made England's left side problem even worse.

Southgate pointed to Shaw's absence when trying to explain why England had been so bad in the 1-1 draw with Denmark. “It is clear in terms of the balance of the team that we don’t have our best left-back, so that denies you that balance,” he said.

A comparison by Sky Sports between Trippier at the Euros and Shaw at the last World Cup paint the United defender in a very positive light. Shaw created 1.7 chances per game in Qatar compared to Trippier's 1.0 chances per game in Germany. Shaw had 92.5 touches per game while Trippier has had 75.7 at this Euros. The left-back has also had more touches in the opposing box, made more passes and made more than double the amount of crosses.

Shaw has a more general positive effect on the team too. A graphic of England's average positions at the World Cup and this Euros showed that the team were considerably more advanced in Qatar than they have been in Germany.

Gamble could be a masterstroke

Shaw's return, therefore, could not just solve England's problem of balance but also unlock their attacking potential, and get more out of the misfiring Harry Kane.

The concern is that Shaw will be lacking sharpness after being out for so long or that he could suffer a relapse of the injury which has plagued him so much over the last 12 months. Shaw is no stranger to injuries, suffering a double limb fracture in against PSV Eindhoven in 2015 which would affect him for the rest of his career. He has started only half the potential Premier League games he could have played in the last eight years.

Ten Hag referenced that horror injury when speaking about Shaw to Voetbal International last month. “This guy is so good. But he has suffered a horrible injury at the start of his career and because of this he will never be able to play 60 games per season," he said.

That might be true, but England only need Shaw to be fit for four games in Germany. And if he return to the level he has shown for United and in his last two major tournaments, then Southgate's gamble could go down as a masterstroke.