With the wind of change fueled by the call for one-man, one-vote, one-shilling mantra sweeping across the populous Mt Kenya region, William Ruto finds himself in a tight corner; to either back the call and lose the support of the sparsely populated regions or snub it and lose the dominant Gikuyu, Embu and Meru votes.
The president is now burning the midnight oil pondering on how he can secure the second and final term in 2027 polls, without the Gema vote that was instrumental in his victory in 2022.
In his mind is the question whether dropping deputy president Rigathi Gachagau and substituting him with either prime cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi or Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga will tilt the equation in his favour in 2027 polls.
Ruto is now pegging his hopes on ODM leader Raila Odinga to reciprocate the support he is giving him in his quest for the African Union Commission chairperson to back his reelection in the next polls.
His hopes hang on Raila marshalling the Luhya and Kisii communities to back his reelection but this might turn out to be a mirage should the ODM leader fail to secure the AUC seat, and either runs for the presidency or backs another candidate where Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka leads the pack.
The Luhya and Kisii communities, together with the coastal communities of Mjikenda, have traditionally voted for the former prime minister and are likely to follow his directions in the next polls.
In the mind of the president is also the question on whether substituting Gachagua with either Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, Interior cabinet secretary Kithure Kindiki or Kirinyaga governor Anne Waiguru will see him win or lose the 2027 presidential race.
To begin with, the president is staring at an open political warfare between his troops and a battalion aligned to his deputy.
After unleashing cabinet, parliamentary and senate hounds upon his deputy, fears now abound that the war of words might escalate into open ethnic cleansing unless Ruto applies emergency brakes to avert the same.
The writing on the wall indicates Ruto has minimal chances of convincing the Mt Kenya region that in 2022 gave him over 3 million votes to back his reelection, either with a running mate from the region or outside.
The president however has not given up and this explains why last week he delivered a bus to Mitunguu Technical Training Institute in Meru as part of his charm offensive to keep the Mt Kenya region in his wraps.
But being at odds with his deputy is costing him dearly given that neither Nyoro, Kindiki nor Waiguru can match Gachagua’s political acumen which has made the second in command to emerge as the strongest figure for running mate position.
For Ruto, he is damned if he picks a deputy from Mt Kenya and also damned if he picks a figure outside the region, unless a miracle happens between now and 2027.
As things stand today, neither Nyoro, Kindiki nor Waiguru would guarantee Ruto an easy victory as all of them have lost touch on the ground and are unlikely to sway Mt Kenya’s votes to Kenya Kwanza.
Nyoro the leading star in the group, was forced to swallow his pride and back the one man, one vote, one shilling on realising the ground was getting slippery.
A social media tweet he posted stated that Kenyans queue at KRA to pay taxes or file returns, and not goats or kilometres of land, in reference to those pushing for one man, one vote, one kilometre revenue sharing formula.
For Waiguru, Ruto might pick her as running mate due to gender considerations but the fear remains that not only has the governor lost steam but also her name has been tainted by corruption allegations.
For Kindiki, he received a barrage of criticisms, even from Tharaka Nithi county, after he trashed the one-man, one-vote, and one-shilling call.
To further complicate matters for Ruto in Mt Kenya, his foot soldiers such as national assembly majority leader and Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wa are facing an uphill task addressing rallies.
The slippery ground has forced them to either result to insults or in the worst scenario physical confrontations with their opponents.
So slippery is the ground for Ichung’wa that besides being labelled as Judas Iscariot for mortgaging the Kikuyu community to the highest bidder, photos are trending in social media depicting him as a woman, and further mockingly advising him to run for woman representative seat in Kiambu in 2022.
These political developments have forced Ruto to turn to Gachagua but the deputy president is, however, walking in the opposite direction knowing too well that he has boxed his boss to a tight corner.
It is to be recalled that as president-elect, Ruto’s first visit was to Kiambu county to thank Kenyans, especially from the region, for rallying behind him at 87pc more than his own home county, Uasin Gishu.
Ruto then likened Kiambu to Jerusalem which features prominently in the Bible. In the Jewish tradition, it is the place where Abraham, the first patriarch of Judaism, nearly sacrificed his son Isaac thousands of years ago.
In this case, Ruto noted that the people of Kiambu shunned divisive politics of ethnicity and tribalism to embrace him as their own son who was best fit to take Kenya to the next chapter of development.
But the political developments since then have forced Gachagua to retreat in his crusade against Uhuru and even to go ahead to confess how he was misled to attack the former president.
The former Mathira MP has not only offered an apology to the retired president and his family and but also sought to forge a political alliance with them.
For Ruto, he is now is damned if he picks a deputy from Mt Kenya and also damned if he picks a figure outside the region.
While Mudavadi appears to be the ideal candidate should Ruto drop Gachagua, fears abound that the former Sabatia MP might not deliver Luhya votes if his past political history is anything to go by.
For instance, in the 2002 general election then president Daniel Moi paired Mudavadi and Uhuru to gun for presidency as president and vice president, respectively, on the then ruling party, Kanu ticket.
The results were that not only did the pair lose the presidential race but Mudavadi also lost the Sabatia parliamentary seat to a little-known school teacher Moses Akaranga.
The same fate befell Raila in 2007 when he picked Mudavadi as his running mate in the hotly contested polls. Raila lost the race to Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity.
In the 2013 elections Mudavadi contested for presidency on United Democratic Forum with the then Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni as his running mate.
The former vice president emerged a distant third after Uhuru and Raila.
In the 2017 and repeats presidential elections, Mudavadi again failed to deliver the Luhya vote to Raila which resulted in the ODM leader losing to Uhuru.
It is common knowledge in Luhyaland that Raila has a solid backing which will always go behind him regardless of Mudavadi’s hand.
In the 2022 polls, Mudavadi again failed to deliver given that even in his native Vihiga county the governor, Wilberforce Ottichillo was elected on ODM ticket while the former vice president’s parliamentary representative, Clement Sloya, was elected on UDA ticket.
Fears now abound that picking Mudavadi as running mate might see similar results – failure to secure his backyard and failure by Ruto to win the presidency.
Also forcing Ruto to rethink the strategy of picking Mudavadi are the clouds gathering in Western Kenya caused by Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya’s clarion call of the Tawe Movement.
There are also reports younger leaders such as UDA secretary general Cleopas Malala are opposed to the picking of Mudavadi as Ruto’s running mate.
This is because they harbour presidential ambitions which will be scuttled in case Mudavadi is elevated.
Among the Kalenjins, those rooting for Mudavadi includes old guards whom Ruto has not time for.
The youthful Kalenjin leaders such as Kapsaret MP Oscar Sudi and Transport cabinet secretary Kipchumba Murkomen are rooting for Nyoro.
Ruto’s last card of winning the presidency without Mt Kenya votes is pegged on Wanga becoming his running mate.
While this scheme might unite the Kalenjins and Luo, both Nilotes, the fear is that it is dead on arrival unless Raila gives his blessings.
For Raila, he is torn between remaining active in the political scene or retiring to concentrate on his campaigns for AUC job.
But the reality is that Raila is not assured of the AUC job given that two strong candidates have entered the ring. They are Somalia’s Fawzia Yusuf Adam and Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.
Chances of the two candidates striking a compromise are high, which will see Raila lose.
Also of worry is whether the Odinga family can agree to pass the Luo leadership baton to Wanga, outsider and woman.
For Ruto however, running with Wanga as deputy, Mudavadi as prime minister and former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho as deputy prime minister is in his mind, with hopes Raila will endorse the deal.