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UK Elections: Past chill, Delhi cautious as it warms to Labour realism, push on FTA

indianexpress.com 2024/10/5

Modi congratulates Keir Starmer on win, praises Rishi Sunak for deepening ties

FTA, free trade agreement (FTA), India-UK FTA, India-EU FTA, Keir Starmer, new prime minister, Britain's election, Labour landslide victory, end of Conservative rule, Downing Street, King Charles III, rebuilding trust, Labour's majority, Rishi Sunak resignation, Conservative historic loss
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer shakes hands with his supporters at the Tate Modern in London, Friday, July 5, 2024. (AP Photo)

Within hours of the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, sweeping the polls in the United Kingdom ending 14 years of Conservative Party-ruled government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the newly elected leader on the “remarkable victory” and said he looked forward to “positive and constructive collaboration” to further strengthen bilateral ties.

“Heartiest congratulations and best wishes to @Keir_Starmer on the remarkable victory in the UK general elections. I look forward to our positive and constructive collaboration to further strengthen the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in all areas, fostering mutual growth and prosperity,” Modi tweeted.

He also praised outgoing British PM Rishi Sunak “for your admirable leadership of the UK, and your active contribution to deepen the ties between India and the UK during your term in office. Best wishes to you and your family for the future.”

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar congratulated David Lammy on his appointment as Foreign Secretary and said, “Look forward to continuing our engagement and strengthen the India UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”

Reading the verdict in Delhi, South Block is “cautiously optimistic” on what the new, changed Labour party-led government means for India.

The caution comes from its past experience of dealing with Labour in its previous avatar — when British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook offered to mediate between India and Pakistan on Kashmir in 1997. More recently, under then Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s watch, after the abrogation of Article 370, the party adopted a resolution calling the situation in Kashmir “deeply disturbing” adding that “human rights abuses taking place are unacceptable”. South Block, predictably, had reacted angrily.

Starmer, who took over the reins of the Labour party soon after the defeat in December 2019 elections, managed to move the party to centre-left, and has adopted what observers call “progressive realism”.

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He was able to nudge Corbyn out of the party, who ran as an Independent and has won amid the Labour’s winning streak. Indian diplomats, who have interacted with Labour leaders, say that while the centre-Left party is “progressive” in its ideas and values, it is also going to be “realistic” in its strategy. They point to the party’s 2024 manifesto which frames the bilateral relationship: “We will seek a new strategic partnership with India, including a free trade agreement, as well as deepening co-operation in areas like security, education, technology and climate change.”

Indeed, Labour’s outreach towards India began last year when Starmer attended the Global India Forum conference in June 2023 and declared: “This a changed Labour party”.

Speaking to an audience that included the Indian and British High Commissioners and British Indian industry leaders, Starmer said that in India, he saw “a modern and a confident nation”, and that the challenge for Britain is to “cast aside the entitlement of history” and deepen its relationship with the modern and future India.

His message in the manifesto echoed this but to assuage any concerns, Labour sent three of its top leaders to India as they sensed victory in the polls.

In February, then Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds, Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade of UK, came to New Delhi and met Jaishankar and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal respectively. Incidentally, this was when both sides were in the middle of FTA negotiations.

In late February, Shadow deputy PM Angela Rayner attended the Raisina dialogue — which is jointly organised by think tank ORF and Ministry of External Affairs — and talked about India being on course to become the third largest economy in the world. She also said that it showed the progress India has made and a part of that is due to the policies that the Indian government has introduced around recognising women’s role.

Jaishankar met her, and tweeted, “Delighted to hear impressions of a transforming India from UK Shadow Deputy PM @AngelaRayner. Spoke about deepening our people to people relations and economic cooperation.” She also went to Ahmedabad and Agra, as part of her three-city tour and met Gujarat CM Bhupendra Patel and Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar.

Most recently, in the last week of June — just about 10 days before the elections in the UK, Lammy used his speech at the inaugural day of India Global Forum’s IGF London 2024 to send a key message to the recently re-elected Narendra Modi government, emphasising the Labour Party’s readiness to finalise a free trade agreement (FTA) with India.

Referring to the Diwali 2022 FTA deadline set by then PM Boris Johnson, Lammy said: “Many Diwalis have come and gone now without a trade deal and too many businesses have been left waiting. My message to Minister (Nirmala) Sitharaman and Minister (Piyush) Goyal is that Labour is ready to go. Let’s finally get our free trade deal done!”

Lammy accused the incumbent Conservative Government of overpromising and under-delivering, expressing frustration at the missed opportunities.

“We need a reset and a relaunch in our relationship. Because the Conservatives have time and time again over promised and under delivered when it comes to India. And that leaves me frustrated — frustrated at the missed opportunities, frustrated at the shared prosperity that is passing us both by which is our ambition to unlock.”

Calling India a superpower that is the “future of Asia, the future of the English language with almost four times as many English speakers than the UK and the future of democracy itself,” Lammy said: “I deeply believe that India’s democratic elections with almost a billion voters are the most important statement, the most important validation not only of the democratic ideal but of democratic practice in today’s world.”

Congratulating Prime Minister Modi on his re-election, Lammy said he looked forward to working with his government should Labour be voted in.

One diplomatic challenge for Labour, officials here said, will be to insulate the New Delhi-London relationship from the pulls and pressures of the deeply divided South Asian diaspora – including pro-Khalistan Sikh separatist groups or the Pak and Kashmiri diaspora.

“For Delhi, these are red lines — as have been witnessed in the last 10 years of the Modi government,” said an official.

Diplomats from both sides, led by new Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and British High Commissioner Lindy Cameron, will be looking at a diplomatic calendar of visits. The British Foreign Secretary is scheduled to be in Laos for the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting July 21-27. Delhi and London, sources said, are looking at a possible visit on the way in or out.

New Delhi and London have been negotiating the proposed FTA for over two years now, with a final deal expected to result in a mutual tariff relaxation on a range of goods such as cars, clothes, alcoholic beverages, and medical instruments. While the Tories and Labour disagree on how to restrict immigration into the UK, there is a bipartisan consensus on the fact that it must be curbed.

With the UK being a powerhouse in the financial services and technology segments, India is seeking temporary visas for its service sector workforce. Given the political climate, though, Labour is likely to negotiate hard on the visa issue.

On climate, Labour has repeatedly cornered the Tories for deviating from the UK’s 2030 net zero goals. India has been seeking a relaxation on the carbon tax that the UK is expected to implement along the lines of the one put in place by the European Union. New Delhi had argued during the FTA negotiations that the proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism could take away much of the tariff concessions agreed to under the bilateral deal.

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