One of the things that I pride myself on being clear-eyed about politics. I don’t believe in panic. Nothing good can come from making a rash decision. And unfortunately it is looking like we are headed to the most rash of rash decisions.
With that said, I don’t believe in presenting cases with rose colored glasses. And I believe potential bad news isn’t like wine, it doesn’t get any better with age. And I think you have to preempt the news and make sure everyone is clear eyed about the ramifications, especially if you can course correct.
History shows this type of drip, drip, drip is almost always a predecessor to a change. I’ve seen this cycle too many times before. In this case, the potential bad news is the Democratic candidate for President, and potentially the current President, may not be the same within seven days. In a worst case scenario, possibly by the end of the weekend with a bad interview today. I believe there is now a higher probability than not that a change is upon us (I would put odds at 70-75%).
Remember the head of lettuce in the UK. There is a snowball effect that happens when the media and donors make their mind up. It is absolutely ridiculous that this small number of people have such an outsized voice, but they do.
I think this is a terrible outcome, for a ton of reasons. I think the path here, exclusively driven by elites, media, and the GOP to an extent, is beyond dangerous. I will never forgive people if this turns into a disaster.
With that said, we need to go in eyes wide open with what is ahead of us.
Anyone that thinks the road gets easier, not harder if this change occurs, could not be more mistaken.
If a change is eventually announced, here is what lies ahead if those that want the President to step down get their wish. It isn’t pretty.
1. Republicans will push for the President to resign.
If President makes the slightest misstep after saying he will not run, Republicans and the media will question his ability to run the country. And because voters don’t understand civics 101, it will likely get traction.
The reason this is almost guaranteed is because the House must approve a new VP. And if they don’t approve a new VP, who will approve electoral votes? And if no one approves electoral votes, who gets to decide who is President. The House, by state delegation, which will certainly be a GOP majority no matter the size of a Democratic wave.
That’s true for one big reason: It turns out with a House packed with rabid supporters of Trump and led by a better-spoken but equally rabid supporter of this fascist project, having a Vice President is an important failsafe for democracy.
But the bigger problem is the target you would put on Kamala Harris’ back if she became a President, running for re-election, without a Vice President as her designated successor. Trump has already made it clear he plans to return to power by any means necessary. Trump has already spent years frothing up his followers to a frenzy that could (and has) tipped into violence with little notice. Indeed, more than a handful of Trump’s supporters have embraced violence, some after getting riled up on Truth Social, others after little more than an incendiary Fox News rant.
The Secret Service did a piss poor job of protecting Kamala Harris on January 6. Let’s not tempt fate or Trump’s rabid brown shirts to make Mike Johnson President.
2. Republicans will litigate any legal loophole that could keep a replacement off of a ballot
Republicans are going to find every option to create chaos behind the scenes, chaos most voters won’t notice and I have no faith Democrats will be able to communicate
The Heritage Foundation, one of America's largest conservative groups, is already getting challenges ready in battleground states should Joe Biden agree to step aside. It views swing states Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada as likely arenas for legal challenges, given the complexity of switching presidential candidates in those states.
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It said that only death can remove a candidate's name from a Wisconsin ballot, while Nevada's deadline for changing candidates ended at 5 p.m. on the fourth Friday of June - in this case, June 28, 2024.
It also allows special consideration beyond that deadline if the candidate is mentally incapacitated - a potential legal minefield that could consume months of legal argument.
Georgia allows candidates to withdraw up to 60 days before an election. If Biden withdrew after that date, which would be in early September, his name would remain on the ballot, but votes for him wouldn't count.
Anyone that doesn’t think this is a softball for SCOTUS after how they overruled Colorado simply refuses to see what is right in front of us
3. The media centrist brigade will savage Vice President Harris, no matter what President Biden, President Obama, and President Clinton say.
Here are just two examples of what lies ahead of if the VP is nominated or if there is a “mini-primary”
The political dilemma surrounding Vice President Harris illustrates some of President Biden’s biggest weaknesses.
Harris was a poor choice to begin with. She hadn't been a strong candidate in the 2020 primaries, and she didn't have a broad political base. Two days before Biden announced that she was his choice back in 2020, he was considering Gretchen Whitmer. Why he embraced Harris is a mystery.
Once Harris was elected, Biden needed to help her get traction. But the Biden White House is a prickly, insular family — and they basically let her sink or swim. They gave her the thankless task of overseeing border issues and Central America; when she went to the region and expressed the administration’s policy — telling migrants to stay in their countries — she took flak from progressives and the White House left her hanging. That created a breach that was never fixed.
Biden should stay on the ticket. But he should replace Harris.
Should Mr. Biden somehow be convinced to step down, the Democratic Party could become split and chaotic as a wide variety of candidates emerge. In addition, many people do not feel that Vice President Harris adds anything to the ticket and, in fact, may be a significant detractor. She does not project the presidential image that people want to see.
They took down one Democrat and the will be going after another. Never forget profit is the media motive, that puts tax cuts and ratings before democracy, and the vast vast majority of media is owned/led by Republicans, even NBC News (ask Nancy Pelosi who refuses to go on Meet the Press)
Never forget what Les Moonves said about Donald Trump’s potential election: “It May Not Be Good for America, but It’s Damn Good for CBS”
4. Attacks on the Democratic Party as unserious and untruthful.
The GOP,in conjunction with the media, will say Democrats hid the President’s health for a year. Every one of those cheap fakes will be re-examined. A cottage industry will spring up reviewing every Presidential interview the last 4 years.
Every minor stutter or physical misstep will becomes the Zapruder film. The Hur tape will almost definitely be released or leaked, and if there is something bad there, it will used to stain the DoJ and the House members as being part of cover up.
All time wasted.
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And this doesn’t even include another potential unknown, the convention with I/P issues hanging out there.
Look folks, there is zero chance the groups screaming from the rooftops have thought through all of these down sides. However, I think it has become readily apparent that the media and donors that are not political experts have decided to ignore the Democratic base to shoot first and ask questions later.
It won’t be impossible to recover from, but I think it will be infinitely harder than simply rallying around the President (assuming there is not major health issue truly being covered up).
I am not going to stop fighting, and I know no one hear will, but I won’t forget those politicians and strategists that put their emotions and interests ahead of a more calm and reasonable process, which there is no doubt made the job a lot harder.