Now that afternoon is here we have a better feel for where the strongest thunderstorms will occur over Lower Michigan. The latest severe weather forecasts for this afternoon and evening show a slight increase in the size of the potential severe weather area.

Let’s start with the always updated radar. We are seeing the first thunderstorms develop over west-central and northwest Michigan. These are the storms that should turn into a larger clump of severe thunderstorms with a few isolated large severe storms.

As we go through the afternoon the thunderstorms should strengthen as they move into northeast Lower Michigan and the Saginaw Bay region. The storms could become severe. The Storm Prediction Center now says the main threat is some scattered damaging wind gusts. Large hail is still a valid concern. Here are the severe weather forecasts for this afternoon and evening broken down into the wind threat, hail threat and tornado threat.

It now appears with a touch slower movement of the severe weather area, almost anywhere in Lower Michigan could have a severe thunderstorm. This now includes Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Lansing and Jackson. The cities on the east side of Lower Michigan always had the chance of severe storms. The interesting call in this forecast from NOAA is no tornado threat. Usually a storm that can produce large hail can also produce a tornado. They very rarely forecast no tornado threat when we have the hail and wind gust threats.

The radar forecast shows the storm scenario in the most useful way. Here is the model that usually is most accurate for a short-term severe weather forecast.

The radar forecast shows the strongest storms and highest concentration of storms will occur from the Thumb through Saginaw, Bay City and Midland to the northeast corner of Lower Michigan. A line of thunderstorms is also possible to move through southeast Lower. That line of storms could be severe but would last a very short time.

Park any car you care about in the garage. Don’t plan on doing something far away from safe shelter in the northeast and Saginaw Bay region. Keep updated with severe weather here.