Pakistan has been no stranger to terrorism since the dawn of this century. However, the phenomenon of terrorism has been escalating since the arrival of the Afghan Taliban in Kabul. It is quite remarkable that initial assessment reports by Pakistan’s intelligence suggest that a pro-friendly government in Kabul led by the Afghan Taliban would result in a declining terrorism surge in the country and pave the way for securing the western border- Durand Line, 2640km. However, the outfall of Kabul at the hands of the Afghan Taliban resulted in a different direction.

Pakistan has experienced the worst terrorism in the year 2023 while various reports conclude that the country has undergone 65pc surge of terrorism in the last year. The principal actor behind such nefarious terrorist activity is Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan-TTP- which is getting both covert and overt support from Afghanistan. Many independent security analysts opted that TTP and Afghan Taliban are different sides of the same coin due to their close affinity of religious ideology, ethnicity and shared worldview. It is also reported that TTP had supported Afghan Taliban during the last two decades when the USA occupied Afghanistan in the name of “Enduring Freedom Operation”, and now it is time to pay back to TTP Afghan Taliban. Other reports claimed that TTP has been used by the Afghan Taliban as a proxy to pressure Pakistan.

It is also worth noting that TTP is allying with other non-violent anti-Pakistan forces in another part of the country. In this regard, the closeness between TTP and BLA indicates the gravity and threat to the internal security of Pakistan- especially in the region of KPK, erstwhile FATF and Baluchistan. Most terrorist attacks are aimed at Pakistan’s military and other law enforcement agencies of the country for the sake of downing their morale.

Meanwhile, the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been strained due to TTP. Various public statements from both sides are adding soar to the bilateral relationship. They would result in the breakdown of so-called cordial relations at some point provided that confidence-building measures are not taken. However, Pakistan has repeatedly called on the Afghan Taliban to cut down the size of TTP and has not offered any support to TTP, yet the leadership in Kabul is quite in denial about the serious concerns of Pakistan. This results in losing strategic patience by Islamabad as they undergo more lethal options for dealing with Terrorism.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan has decided to unleash another intelligencebased military operation under the banner of “Azam-e-Istehkam (June 2024)” to combat both terrorism and extremism in the country. Although both government and military leadership are on the same page regarding the nature and scope of the newly born operation, opposition parties- especially KPK- are casting doubt on the success of this operation. For that, the government should take confidence-building measures with opposition parties for a larger consensus on this military operation as history bears the testimony to fact that political consensus is a pre-requisite before conducting a successful military operation.

Meantime, Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Asif, in his interview with Voice of America, hinted at aiming hot pursuit in Afghanistan for the elimination of terrorists and their sanctuaries deep inside Afghanistan by using military forces even unilaterally. However, the main issue with such combative thinking is that it goes against the sovereignty of Afghanistan. Second, it weakens Pakistan’s stance regarding strategic strikes and cross-border operations by India in the name of the so-called elimination of terrorism in Pakistan, which could trigger a violation of sovereignty at the regional level in South Asia. Lastly, such an action could unleash further anti-Pakistan feeling and public opinion in Afghanistan which is not in the interest of Islamabad.

Therefore, one can say that military action against terrorism carries a significant weightage, however, to get rid of terrorism and extremism, the state has to undergo other non-military options. In this regard, the National Action Plan has provided a clear roadmap. For example, political stability, economic prosperity, equal economic opportunities, the rule of law, the fair and square justice system, development programs in provinces, de-radicalized education and women empowerment are few among the available options against fighting terrorism and extremism. Most importantly, the state has to provide a counter-terrorism narrative against TTP and BLA to uproot their ideological depth in affected regions of Pakistan.

Meantime, Pakistan has to deal with the Afghan Taliban at multiple levels along with strengthening the internal security of the country. For example, political, military, economic and engagement with the Afghan Taliban has to be intact for the sake of carrot policy in diplomacy. Afghan Taliban should be reminded that favoring TTP is not in the interest of Afghanistan and their contacts with TTP must be broken for larger recognition of Afghan Taliban by the international community.

At the same time, Pakistan should not abandon its stick policy with the Afghan Taliban as long as the Afghan Taliban is willing to support TTP. For that, Pakistan could use Afghan refugees as a tactical option against the Afghan Taliban for exerting pressure. Trade restriction and economic stagnation could also be brought to the table for mending Afghan Taliban behaviour towards TTP. However, Pakistan should undergo such an option with great care and concern without damaging available goodwill and strategic depth in Afghanistan in favor of Pakistan. Otherwise, Afghanistan could end up in Pakistan’s vital rival- India- which could jeopardize the core interests of Pakistan.

Lastly, at the diplomatic level, Pakistan must unveil Indian funding and weapons at the hands of TTP and BLA before the international community, exposing the dual face of Indian terrorist sponsorship in the region. Meanwhile, Pakistan should engage the international community for the sake of upholding the Doha Agreement (2020) where the Afghan Taliban pledged before the USA and international community not to grant any space and a haven to any terrorist outfit in Afghanistan. Finally, Pakistan should engage with neighboring countries to reach a consensus on the agenda of terrorism with the slogan of “No Recognition without ending Terrorism”.

Sher Ali Bukhari

The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy