The political landscape in Kenya is changing as Raila Odinga, the leader of the ODM party, is likely to step down and pursue a position at the African Union Commission.This shift presents an opportunity for new leaders to emerge and champion the interests of ordinary citizens.
Raila's large influence in Kenyan politics means that no single person can fully replace him, whether within ODM, the Azimio coalition, or as a prominent voice in Kenyan politics. Some politicians who have not been visible recently are now trying to associate themselves with Raila's prominence.
In Luo Nyanza, the region that has been Raila's stronghold, people are saying that politicians seeking elective positions will no longer be able to rely on Raila's support alone. Voters in this region want leaders who can deliver on their promises, not just those who claim to be close to Raila.Even if Raila focuses on the African Union position, his political influence will still be significant and could play a crucial role in rallying support for the Azimio coalition or whatever the next political formation will be. His support for a presidential candidate is likely to lead to a higher voter turnout in his strongholds, as many candidates will seek votes from his supporters.
The Kenya Kwanza alliance, led by President William Ruto, is facing challenges. They are losing support in the Mt. Kenya region faster than they can deliver on their promises, and many "hustlers" (ordinary Kenyans) feel betrayed by politicians who convinced them to join the UDA party. The ticket that won the 2022 election is struggling with issues like the high cost of living and the government's inefficiency.
To address this, Kenya Kwanza is trying to excite the masses in Mt. Kenya by promoting young leaders like Ndindi Nyoro and Kimani Ichunga, who are challenging Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. They are also propping up Musalia Mudavadi, hoping that by supporting Raila's African Union bid, Western and Luo Nyanza will vote for whatever ticket UDA fields, potentially without a Mt. Kenya candidate.
Critics argue that UDA will need to offer a fresh alternative and accommodate the Mt. Kenya region outside the presidency if they want to retain power. The competition for the Western region's support between Azimio and UDA will be intense, and the choice of running mate will be crucial for both coalitions.