The wait is nearly over for the massive Champions League semi-final battle as it is going to be between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid on Tuesday, and Borussia Dortmund against Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.
1. Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
Expect an electrifying atmosphere at Allianz Arena when two European giants Bayern Munich and Real Madrid go head to head in the Champions League semis, first leg. Bayern Munich are eyeing their fourth consecutive league win in all competitions. However, they will have a big fish to fry against Los Blancos, who eliminated star-studded Man City in the quarter-finals.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men defeated Real Sociedad 1-0 at the weekend to cement top position in the La Liga standings. The Italian tactician mixed the squad in the Reale Arena clash, but the “Don Carlo” is going to field the best possible side against Bayern Munich.
Harry Kane’s debut season in Germany has not been perfect, but he has already hit 42 goals across all competitions this term. The England captain has struck seven times in 10 Champions League games and he will be targeting European success to justify leaving his boyhood club for a Bayern side who have fallen from their pedestal domestically.
Kane has scored 14 goals in his last 13 games in all competitions and he meets a Real Madrid side who do not have a reliable partner for Antonio Rudiger at centre-half. The Bayern man should score for the third game on the bounce, especially with the Bavarians’ injury crisis leaving him as the one clear goal threat in this crucial game.
While Bayern have a veteran goalscorer leading the line, Real Madrid have 23-year-old Rodrygo to thank that they have made it this far in Europe. The Brazilian scored home and away against Manchester City in the last round to help Real past the defending champions, with those strikes taking Rodrygo to five Champions League goals in the campaign.
Bayern are set to start Eric Dier and Kim Min-Jae together at the heart of their backline, which is a largely untried partnership. Neither player has fantastic pace, so look to Rodrygo to cause huge problems for Bayern in Tuesday’s meeting.
Bayern’s injury issues also leave them looking short in defensive midfield, where 19-year-old Pavlovic is expected to feature. The German teenager has shown promise, but he has also been frequently in trouble with the officials.
Despite making only 11 starts in the Bundesliga this term, the midfielder has been booked on five occasions. He looks like a weak-link for Real to exploit, especially as their pacey front two can drop back around him, or Jude Bellingham can run at him. With those forwards racing around the young midfielder, he should pick up a card.
Camavinga picked up his 11th booking of the season in the recent Clasico and the Frenchman is another player for another caution on Tuesday night. He has averaged over two fouls per game in this season’s Champions League, with both of his bookings in the competition coming away from home.
Camavinga has been booked in three of his last eight appearances and while Bayern have issues at the back, they do have plenty of creative midfield types who can harry Camavinga, regardless if he plays in defensive midfield or at left-back.
Checking on their past head to head results stretching back to 23/04/2014 reveals that these fixtures have not been kind to Bayern Munich. They have not been able to come away with any wins at all whereas Real Madrid have managed to find a way, getting wins in 83% of those games played.
A combined total of 21 goals were scored between them throughout the course of those matches, with 6 of them from Bayern and 15 coming from Los Blancos. That is an average goals per game figure of 3.5.
Team News: Bayern Munich
Leroy Sane (Inflammation of pubic bone), Kingsley Coman (Adductor injury), Sacha Boey (Torn muscle bundle), Bouna Sarr (Cruciate ligament tear) and Tarek Buchmann (Torn muscle bundle) are unavailable for Bayern Munich boss Thomas Tuchel.
It seems likely that Bayern look set to employ a 4-2-3-1 formation for the game and select Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Min-Jae Kim, Eric Dier, Alphonso Davies, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Leon Goretzka, Thomas Mueller, Jamal Musiala, Raphael Guerreiro and Harry Kane.
Team News: Real Madrid
Due to a mostly healthy squad, there is just the sole fitness issue for the Real Madrid gaffer Carlo Ancelotti to be concerned about. David Alaba (Cruciate ligament tear) won’t be in action. Daniel Carvajal cannot play in this game through suspension.
I am inclined to think that Los Blancos will likely play in a 4-4-2 system with a starting lineup of Andriy Lunin, Lucas Vazquez, Aurelien Tchouameni, Antonio Ruediger, Ferland Mendy, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Toni Kroos, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior.
2. Borussia Dortmund vs PSG
All eyes will be on Signal Iduna Park when Borussia Dortmund and PSG face each other in the Champions League semis, first leg. The Yellow-Blacks aim to recover from a heavy 4-1 loss to Leipzig, but they will have to do it without injured duo Sebastian Haller and Ramy Bensebaini.
Les Parisiens, on the other hand, set up a meeting with Borussia Dortmund by beating Barcelona in the double-header. Luis Enrique can count on key players for the first leg, but beating Borussia Dortmund at packed Signal Iduna Park is easier said than done.
Borussia Dortmund and PSG both overturned deficits against Spanish opposition to progress from the Champions League quarter-finals and their semi-final tussle at Signal Iduna Park should not disappoint.
Dortmund lost the first leg of their quarter-final with Atletico Madrid 2-1 but made the most of playing in front of their iconic ‘Yellow Wall’ with a 4-2 triumph over the Spaniards in the second leg. As for PSG, they were edged 3-2 by Barcelona in the first leg of their quarter-final at the Parc des Princes but exploded into life in a 4-1 win in the second leg in Catalonia. It is fair to say both clubs know where the goal is and a high-scoring semi-final could be on the cards.
PSG have hit form at the right time but, even with a rotated team, their 3-3 draw with Le Havre last time out was underwhelming and they have a tendency to implode in the Champions League. Dortmund, meanwhile, are a strong side on home soil and can beat anyone on their day at Signal Iduna Park but their 4-1 hammering by Leipzig on Saturday revealed a number of deficiencies.
It is therefore hard to make a strong case for either side in this first leg and over 3.5 goals looks like the best idea. It has clicked in each of PSG’s last five matches, which have generated a total of 26 goals. And two of Dortmund’s last three fixtures have also featured at least four goals, including their last Champions League game on home soil which they won 4-2 against Atletico Madrid.
Goals is definitely the best way to go but in terms of a result, PSG could have the edge. Luis Enrique’s men reeled off three consecutive wins over Barcelona, Lyon and Lorient before their draw with Le Havre and they took four points off Dortmund in the group stage of this season’s competition.
Kylian Mbappe was rested in the draw with Le Havre at the weekend and he will be raring to go in this first leg. Set to leave PSG at the end of the season, the French prodigy will be desperate to land the Champions League before departing and he has scored eight times in the competition this season. He could breach an inconsistent Borussia Dortmund rearguard.
A glance at their prior head-to-head meetings going back to 21/10/2010 shows us that Borussia Dortmund have won 1 of these games and PSG 2, with the tally of drawn results standing at 3. In all, 11 goals were scored between them during those clashes, with 4 for Dortmund and 7 netted by Les Rouge-et-Bleu. That is an average goals per game value of 1.83.
The last league meeting featuring the two was Champions League match day 6 on 13/12/2023 which ended up with the score at Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Paris Saint-Germain. That time, Borussia Dortmund had 41% possession and 10 attempts at goal with 6 of them on target. The scorer was Karim Adeyemi (51'). Paris Saint-Germain got 18 attempts at goal with 6 of them on target. Warren Zaïre-Emery (56') scored.
Team News: Borussia Dortmund
Sebastien Haller (Ankle injury), Donyell Malen (Knee problems), Abdoulaye Kamara (unknown injury) and Ramy Bensebaini (Inner ligament injury) will not be able to play for Borussia Dortmund manager Edin Terzic.
It is my opinion that Dortmund look set to opt for a 4-2-3-1 system for this game with Gregor Kobel, Julian Ryerson, Niklas Sule, Nico Schlotterbeck, Marius Wolf, Marcel Sabitzer, Emre Can, Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt, Jadon Sancho and Niclas Fullkrug.
Team News: Paris Saint-Germain
PSG manager Luis Enrique has not got a full squad to pick from. Sergio Rico (Fitness) and Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon rupture) will not be playing here.
From my viewpoint, Les Rouge-et-Bleu might begin the game with a 4-3-3 formation, giving starts to Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Lucas Beraldo, Nuno Mendes, Warren Zaire-Emery, Vítinha, Fabian Ruiz, Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Bradley Barcola.
Conclusion
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid may well both score, with little between these two teams, but this looks like it could end up all-square. Whereas Borussia Dortmund and PSG could both well score more than once here although it is hard to see a clear-cut winner. It will be interesting to see how these two fixtures go.